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NOT, IT'S NOT THAT.[1. CALL TO ORDER/PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE/MOMENT OF SILENCE]
LET'S CALL THE MEETING TO ORDER.JOIN ME FOR THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE.
I PLEDGE ALLEGIANCE TO THE FLAG OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND TO THE REPUBLIC FOR WHICH IT STANDS.
ONE NATION UNDER GOD, INDI LIBERTY, JUSTICE.
I THINK HE CAN HANDLE HIMSELF THOUGH.
DOES THAT MEAN HE GETS THREE VOTES?
AND NOW JOIN ME FOR A MOMENT OF SILENCE.
[2. ROLL CALL]
DEPUTY CLERK, WOULD YOU PLEASE READ THE ROLL CALL? MAYOR BLO HERE, VICE MAYOR PLU.COUNCILOR DUNN IS ABSENT AND EXCUSED.
COUNCILOR FURMAN, THE KEY COUNCILOR KINSELLA HERE.
[3.a. AB 3211 Discussion/direction regarding the Analysis of Short-Term Housing Rentals and the Impact on Housing Availability and Affordability in Sedona prepared by Rounds Consulting Group.]
OKAY, ITEM THREE, SPECIAL BUSINESS A IS AB 32 11.DISCUSSION DIRECTION REGARDING THE ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM RENTALS, UH, AND THE IMPACT OF HOUSING AVAILABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY IN SEDONA.
PREPARED BY THE ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP.
JAMES, WELCOME, UH, MR. MAYOR MEMBERS, UH, THANK YOU FOR HAVING US AGAIN.
IT'S ALWAYS FUN TO DRIVE UP HERE.
UH, ETHAN, YOU'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE, RIGHT? ETHAN? STARTED WITH OUR COMPANY YEAR AND A HALF AGO.
SO YOU'RE DOING SUCH A GOOD JOB.
IT SEEMS LIKE YOU'VE BEEN HERE LONGER.
UH, ETHAN DID A LOT OF THE DATA MINING, UM, IDENTIFIED, UH, CONFIRMING THINGS THAT WE WOULD'VE EXPECTED, IDENTIFIED THINGS THAT WE WEREN'T EXPECTING TO SEE.
UH, AND SO THAT'S WHY WE WANTED TO DO THIS PRESENTATION ON SOME KEY FINDINGS TO SOLICIT ADDITIONAL FEEDBACK FOR THE REPORT.
BECAUSE OUR INITIAL TASK, OUR INITIAL SCOPE WAS TO ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF THE SHORT TERM RENTALS ON IN GENERAL, IT WAS ON AFFORDABILITY, ON HOUSING PRICES.
BUT AFTER WE GOT INTO IT, WE REALIZED THAT SEDONA, WHICH I GREW UP IN ARIZONA, SO I KNOW THE AREA WELL, ALREADY KNEW IT WAS UNIQUE, BUT VERY UNIQUE EVEN ON THIS TOPIC.
AND THEN WHEN WE STARTED LOOKING INTO, WELL, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE RAMIFICATIONS THAT PEOPLE TYPICALLY TALK ABOUT WHEN IT'S ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY? USUALLY IT HAS TO DO WITH, UM, YOU KNOW, THE, UH, WORKERS BEING ABLE TO LOCATE IN A PARTICULAR AREA.
IF NOT, ARE THERE OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THEM? SO THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ELEMENT THAT MADE IT DIFFERENT.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE, WE WERE REALLY ENJOYING WORKING, UH, WITH ANNETTE.
AND WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE SCOPE A LITTLE BIT.
AND THAT'S WHY THERE'S TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT TYPES OF ISSUES THAT ARE ADDRESSED IN IT.
UM, NO FEE CHANGE, BUT WE WANTED TO BE ABLE TO, UH, TALK ABOUT, WE WANTED TO DELIVER SOMETHING THAT WAS RELEVANT BECAUSE WE DID REVIEW THAT OTHER REPORT, THE POWERPOINT, THE, UH, S-V-V-A-R, UM, IN ADDITION, UH, WE INITIALLY WEREN'T GOING TO, BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH DISCUSSION ABOUT IT THAT WE THOUGHT WE SHOULD TAKE A LOOK AT THAT TOO.
AND JUST FOR SOME CONTEXT, AND I DON'T KNOW IF, I DON'T THINK WE DISCUSSED THIS BEFORE, WE DO A LOT OF WORK WITH THE LEAGUE OF CITIES AND TOWNS.
WE DO A LOT OF WORK WITH INDIVIDUAL CITIES.
WE DO A LOT OF WORK ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ISSUES IN A LOT OF DIFFERENT AREAS.
AND THIS NEXT YEAR THERE'S GONNA BE THE, THE BILL THAT HAD TO DO WITH HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DIED AT THE CAPITOL.
UM, NEXT YEAR IS GONNA COME BACK AGAIN.
AND WHAT WE THOUGHT ABOUT DOING, AND WE WERE DISCUSSING THIS WITH DIFFERENT POTENTIAL TEAM MEMBERS, IS HAVING A MORE ROBUST, THOROUGH ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES ISSUES THAT MIGHT IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN DIFFERENT WAYS.
BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, THE IDEA AT THE CAPITOL, AND AS YOU KNOW, I HAVE MANY FRIENDS DOWN THERE, SO I'M NOT BEING CRITICAL OF THEM, JUST OF THEIR IDEAS.
UM, IT WAS A LITTLE JOKE, BUT IT'S NOT, IS EVERY COMMUNITY'S THE SAME AND THE SAME PUBLIC POLICY IS GONNA IMPACT THE COMMUNITIES THE SAME.
AND I THINK THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE.
IN FACT, I THINK A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF VALUE THAT'S GONNA COME FROM THIS IS GONNA BE A CASE STUDY IN EXPLAINING HOW EVERYBODY PICTURES, UM, SHORT-TERM RENTALS IN SEDONA, IT'S KIND OF SYNONYMOUS WITH IT BEING ALMOST
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THE POSTER CHILD FOR HOW A COMMUNITY CAN BE IMPACTED.BUT TO BE ABLE TO SHOW THAT THERE'S DIFFERENT ISSUES GOING ON, EVEN IN SEDONA, I THINK IT EMPHASIZES THE FACT THAT WE NEED TO THINK A LITTLE BIT MORE BROADLY IF WE'RE GONNA HAVE LEGISLATION THAT'S GONNA BE AROUND FOR A LONG TIME.
SO WHAT I'M HOPING IS THAT WE LEARNED A LOT BY DOING THIS RESEARCH WITH YOU ALL.
AND THEN I'M HOPING THAT WHAT WE PUT TOGETHER WILL BE USABLE.
BUT THE FEEDBACK THAT WE'RE GETTING FROM YOU IS SOMETHING THAT'S GONNA HELP WITH MAYBE IMPLEMENTING SOME STUFF AT THE STATE LEVEL, MAYBE EVEN FINDING SOME PROGRAMS WHERE THERE'S SOME SHARED FUNDINGS OF CERTAIN PROGRAMS. BECAUSE NOBODY CAN HANDLE THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ISSUE BY THEMSELVES.
INDIVIDUAL CITIES ARE BEING ASKED TO CARRY THE WATER FOR THE REST, REST OF THE STATE.
BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ISSUES THAT RELATED TO HOUSING AFFORDABILITY HAD A LOT TO DO WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, THE SPENDING AT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT LEVEL.
JUST SO THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT DYNAMICS THAT IMPACTED IT.
THAT'S WHY THERE'S HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ISSUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
WE SOMETIMES JOKE IN INTERVIEWS THAT SHAME ON THE ARIZONA CITIES FOR CAUSING PRICE INCREASES IN HOUSING IN FLORIDA AND VERMONT AND MICHIGAN.
YOU KNOW, CLEARLY THERE'S OTHER THINGS GOING ON.
SO THAT, THAT'S JUST A LITTLE BIT OF A PRELUDE TO SOME OF THESE POINTS.
BUT THE, AGAIN, THE MAIN THING IS THAT WE WANTED TO HAVE YOU QUESTION SOME OF THE POINTS THAT WE HAVE, SOME OF THE DATA, UH, THINGS THAT WE HAVE TO REFINE.
WE HAVE A PRETTY SOLID DRAFT OF A REPORT, BUT WE DIDN'T WANT TO FINISH IT AND, YOU KNOW, DOT THE I'S AND CROSS THE T'S WITHOUT GETTING SOME ADDITIONAL DIRECTION.
JUST BECAUSE THIS PROJECT HAS BECOME A BIGGER DEAL AND MORE COMPLICATED THAN WHAT WE ANTICIPATED.
AND I THINK IT'S WORTHWHILE TO PUT IN THE EXTRA TIME.
AND SO I APPRECIATE THAT YOU ALL HAVE TAKING THE TIME TO DO THIS MEETING WITH US AS WELL.
UH, SO WE'LL DISCUSS SOME OF THE BASIC KEY FINDINGS.
UM, WE WANTED TO GATHER THE FEEDBACK.
AND THEN AFTER WE GET THIS, UH, I PICTURE IT'LL TAKE US ABOUT TWO WEEKS TO PROBABLY INCORPORATE THE INFORMATION AND GET YOU, UH, UH, A DRAFT THAT YOU CAN COMMENT ON, UH, MORE THOROUGHLY.
AND, UM, BE HAPPY TO COME BACK AND, YOU KNOW, DISCUSS, UM, YOU KNOW, WHEN IT'S FINAL OR HOWEVER WE WANT TO DO IT.
AND THEN, BECAUSE THERE WAS INTEREST, UH, IN US LOOKING AT THAT, UH, S-V-V-A-R REPORT, UH, WE DID LOOK AT THAT IN DETAIL.
I REACHED OUT TO THE FIRM AND HAD A DISCUSSION WITH, UM, THEIR ECONOMISTS AND GOT A LITTLE BIT OF PERSPECTIVE ON, UM, HOW STRONGLY THEY FELT ABOUT CERTAIN STATEMENTS.
'CAUSE I FELT IN SOME CASES WHEN, WHEN AN ECONOMIST SAYS SOMETHING IS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT, THAT'S KIND OF THE NERDY WAY OF SAYING THIS IS A FACT.
BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IS MORE OF A SOFT MEASURE WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH SOMETHING THAT HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL INPUTS.
AND SO, LIKE FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU HAVE 10 DIFFERENT THINGS IMPACTING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, IF YOU TRY TO DO AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL THAT HAS 10 DIFFERENT VARIABLES IN IT, THE MODEL IS NOT VALID.
IF YOU MISS VARIABLES, THE MODEL IS NOT VALID.
AND SO WHAT, AND, AND, AND THIS IS WHY I WANTED TO REACH OUT TO THEM SO THAT IT WASN'T GONNA BE BUTTING HEADS WITH, YOU KNOW, TWO DIFFERENT FIRMS THAT DO ECONOMICS.
UH, WE WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAYBE IT SHOULDN'T BE.
IT'S STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT TECHNICALLY, BUT REALLY THE THE POINT JUST PROVIDES SOME GUIDANCE ON HOW THE RESULTS MAY IMPACT THE COMMUNITY OR WHAT THE NUMBERS MIGHT BE.
AND SO IT WAS A REALLY GOOD CONVERSATION THAT WE HAD.
AND I THINK THAT SOME OF THE CONCLUSIONS THAT WERE A LITTLE STRONGER REALLY ARE A LITTLE BIT SOFTER.
AND IT'S MORE FINDINGS TO MAYBE LOOK AT FURTHER OR MORE IMPORTANTLY, USE THOSE FINDINGS TO HELP DEVELOP SOME POLICY SOLUTIONS AND MAYBE EVEN GET SOME EXTRA FUNDING HERE.
UM, SO WE ALREADY KNOW THAT, UH, SEDONA IS VERY UNIQUE.
UM, WE ARE LOOKING AT A POPULATION WHERE IT'S LIVE, WORK, PLAY, AND THEN POTENTIALLY RETIRE.
UM, WE HAVE A LOT OF INDIVIDUALS, UM, VISITING HERE.
I, I'M, I'M BASICALLY SAYING SOMETHING THAT YOU KNOW MUCH MORE, UH, ABOUT THAN, THAN MYSELF.
BUT WE WANTED TO MAKE A, WE, WE HAD TO DEVELOP THIS STORY, BUT THE, THE KEY IS THAT WE ALWAYS HAVE TO HAVE TOURISM BECAUSE A COMMUNITY WORKS BY MONEY COMING INTO AN AREA, AND THEN IT BOUNCES AROUND.
AND THEN WHEN YOU NEED TO BUY SOMETHING FROM OUTTA THE AREA.
SO IF YOU NEED TO BUY A CAR, THE MONEY, UNLESS YOU'RE MAKING CARS HERE, THE MONEY EXITS.
SO RETIREES, VISITORS, THEY ALL BRING WEALTH.
THAT THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT A BASE SECTOR.
UH, GOVERNMENT, UH, CAN BE A BASE SECTOR WHEN IT'S FEDERAL OR WITHIN A LOCAL COMMUNITY IF STATE MONIES COME IN.
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WE LOOK AT THIS FROM, WE WANTED TO LOOK AT THIS FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE AND WHAT DRIVES ACTIVITY.AND NOW THAT ALSO MEANS THAT WE WANTED TO LOOK AT IF A HOUSING UNIT WAS NO LONGER A SHORT TERM RENTAL, UM, AND IT WAS SOMETHING THAT COULD BE OCCUPIED, WHAT WOULD THE TYPICAL PROFILE BE? WHAT KINDA SPENDING WOULD THAT PERSON DO OR THAT FAMILY DO? AND BUT WHAT WOULD BE WE, WHAT WOULD THE COMMUNITY BE LOSING IN TERMS OF THE TOURISM ACTIVITY? AND IT'S ONE OF THOSE COMPLICATED QUESTIONS BECAUSE IT REALLY DEPENDS.
IT'S ALMOST A CASE BY CASE BASIS.
'CAUSE PICTURE A HOME THAT, UM, IS, UH, OWNED BY A RETIREE THAT HAS LITTLE CURRENT INCOME, BUT DECENT AMOUNT OF WEALTH, BUT SPENDS A LITTLE BIT BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO WHEN THEY WERE STILL WORKING, WHICH IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN.
BUT YOU HAVE VISITORS THAT COME IN, THE TOURISTS AND TOURISTS WHEN THEY'RE HERE FOR A WEEK OVERSPEND, THEY DON'T SPEND THAT AMOUNT.
THEY DON'T DO A PINK JEEP TOUR EVERY WEEK.
THEY DON'T GO OUT TO DINNER 10 TIMES.
SO THE TOURISTS TEND TO SPEND A LARGER AMOUNT DURING THAT PERIOD.
BUT IF THE RETIREES SPENT HALF AS MUCH, BUT THE VACATION HOME WAS ONLY OCCUPIED HALF THE TIME, THEN IT'S A PUSH.
AND THAT'S WHERE YOU GET INTO SOME STATISTICS THAT SOMETIMES AREN'T AVAILABLE AT THIS KIND OF A LEVEL.
IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY, HERE'S EXACTLY WHAT YOU SHOULD DO.
THAT SVV AR REPORT, UM, GOTTA COME UP WITH A SHORTER, WE JUST CALL SV REPORT.
UH, THERE, IT, IT IDENTIFIES THE EXTRA REVENUE THAT, UH, COMES IN ON, UH, FROM TOURISM AND THE STR.
AND IT, IT'S SOMETHING TO BE, THINK TO THINK ABOUT.
I ALREADY, I LIKE TO TALK AND TELL STORIES AND SO I ALWAYS GET AHEAD ON MY POWERPOINTS AND I HAVE TO SKIP SLIDES.
'CAUSE YOU REALIZE THAT SLIDE 17 REALLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN SLIDE FIVE AND YOU GOTTA TALK ABOUT IT.
UM, A JUST SOME OF THE, THE, WE HAVE A LOT OF DATA IN THE REPORT.
UM, IN FACT, I FEEL LIKE WE NEED TO CLEAN IT UP A LITTLE BIT AND MAYBE REDUCE IT.
UM, BUT THE, OBVIOUSLY THE PROFILE IS, UH, OLDER INDIVIDUALS.
UM, BUT AGAIN, IT, YOU CAN'T JUST LOOK AT CURRENT INCOME.
YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT OVERALL LEVELS OF WEALTH.
AND THAT'S WHY IN SOME CASES, IF YOU JUST LOOK AT RETIREES, IF YOU LOOK AT JUST INCOME, THEN IT LOOKS LIKE, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE NOT MAKING ANYTHING, BUT THEY'RE SPENDING THE MONEY THAT THEY MADE BEFORE.
SO YOU GOTTA MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT.
AND A LOT OF STUDIES THAT WE'VE SEEN THAT WE HAD TO REVIEW FOR THIS EXERCISE IDENTIFIED THAT, UM, MANY INDIVIDUALS DIDN'T MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT FACT.
UM, I'M HOPING TO RETIRE, I'M GONNA HAVE SOME PASSIVE INCOME, BUT THE REASON I'M PUTTING MONEY ASIDE IS SO THAT I CAN SPEND THAT, UH, YOU KNOW, GOING FORWARD AFTER I, YOU KNOW, DECIDE THAT POLITICS IS KILLING ME.
I'M, I'M ONLY HALFWAY THERE RIGHT NOW, SO I STILL HAVE AT LEAST THREE YEARS LEFT.
UM, MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME, AGAIN, THIS IS A STATISTIC THAT'S USED IN A LOT OF THESE TYPES OF ANALYSES.
IT'S JUST DOES, IT JUST DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS MEANINGFUL.
SO WE ARE LOOKING AT CURRENT INCOME INDIVIDUALS AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT, UH, INDIVIDUALS THAT BRING MORE WEALTH.
UH, WHAT I FOUND INTERESTING WAS THAT SEDONA MEDIAN INCOME EXCEEDED THAT OF THE STATE ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL 2020 THAN IT FLIPPED.
AND THE GAP IS GETTING LARGER.
IT WOULD SEEM, SO, SHOULDN'T WE BE DRAWING AT LEAST SOME ASSUMPTIONS, IF NOT CONCLUSIONS FROM WHAT THAT'S TELLING US? YEAH.
SO A COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON WITH THE EARLIER YEARS.
UM, WHEN WE WENT THROUGH THE GREAT RECESSION, THAT WAS DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE HAD A VERY IMBALANCED ECONOMY ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.
WE WERE, WE WERE ALWAYS IN THE TOP FIVE OR 10 STATES FOR ADDING JOBS, BUT WE WERE ADDING A LOT OF LOW WAGE JOBS.
WE'RE ACTUALLY MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT ON GOVERNMENT.
WE WERE LOWERING THE AVERAGE WAGES, UH, AT SOME POINT.
AND WE FELT TO 49TH IN THE COUNTRY FOLLOWING A YEAR WHERE WE WERE NUMBER ONE IN JOB GROWTH.
AND IT TOOK SEVERAL YEARS TO GET BACK TO NORMAL.
AND SO IT KIND OF DEP FOR STATEWIDE, IT DEPRESSED THE NUMBERS, UM, QUITE A BIT.
IN FACT, I THINK TECHNICALLY WE DIDN'T RECOVER THE LOST JOBS, NOT EVEN GETTING BACK TO WHERE WE WOULD'VE BEEN ON THE TREND.
BUT WE DIDN'T RECOVER THE LOST JOBS FOR, WHAT WAS IT, FOUR OR FIVE YEARS.
AND OUR TROUGH WAS 2011, 2012 IS WHEN WE IMPLEMENTED ALL THOSE NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS. AND THEN IT TOOK A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE WE STARTED SEEING THE BENEFIT FROM IT.
SO WE HAVE SOME OF THAT GOING ON TOO.
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UM, BY, JUST IN TERMS OF THINGS FOR US TO THINK ABOUT AND YOUR KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA WHERE THERE'S SOME OTHER ADD ADDITIONAL ISSUES THAT YOU THINK WE SHOULD CONSIDER IN TERMS OF THAT EARLIER DATA AND HOW IT'S SEPARATING RIGHT NOW.WELL, 2020 IS THE COVID YEAR, RIGHT? YEAH.
THAT'S, THAT'S WHAT JUMPED OUT AT, AT ME IS, IS, OKAY, COI HITS AND NOW WE FLIP, AND ALL A SUDDEN OUR MEDIAN INCOME IS LOWER.
I, I MEAN, WHAT HAPPENED HERE? WELL, WE GOT A WHOLE BUNCH MORE TOURISTS.
WE GOT THE PROLIFERATION OF STR REALLY TOOK OFF ONCE MONEY WENT TO ZERO COST.
SO HOW DOES THAT PLAY INTO THIS? I MEAN, I GOTTA BELIEVE THERE'S A CORRELATION THERE.
I I THINK THERE'S, AND THIS IS WHY I DON'T LIKE TO MAKE TOO MANY FIRM CONCLUSIONS ON THE MODELING, BECAUSE THE NUMBER ONE, OR, OR THE, THE STORY GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO BEFORE THE GREAT RECESSION, WE BUILT A LOT OF EXTRA HOMES.
UH, WE WENT THROUGH A PERIOD WHERE WE WERE OVERBUILT AND WE GOT USED TO UNDER BUILDING FOR A WHILE, NOT NECESSARILY HERE, BUT I KNOW IN THE GREATER, IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA, THIS IS WHEN SOME CITIES DECIDED TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE RESTRICTIVE WHEN PRICES WERE STILL DEPRESSED.
THEY WERE ABLE TO PUT ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON NEW DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE THEY COULD.
AND THEN WE SHIFTED TO AFTER COVID THE PRICE OF MATERIALS BEING UP, UM, LABOR BEING UP, BUT WE HAD THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING FAR MORE THAN IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN SPENDING DURING THAT TIME IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, KEPT RATES AT ZERO FOR TOO LONG.
AND THEN THEY RAISED IT TOO QUICKLY AND THEN CAUSED FINANCIAL PROBLEMS. AND SO, UH, I I'M NOT SHY ABOUT SAYING THAT ADDING 10 TRILLION TO THE NATIONAL DEBT AND HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD PERFORMED OVERSHADOWS ALMOST EVERYTHING ELSE.
AND SO WE GOTTA FOCUS ON WHAT CAN WE DO? AND THAT'S WHERE THERE'S A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AT THE CAPITOL.
IT'S THE, THE BUILDERS WILL SAY, THE CITIES ARE DOING EVERYTHING.
THE CITIES WILL SAY, HEY, WAIT A SECOND.
THERE'S A LOT OF OTHER CITIES THAT ARE BEYOND ARIZONA THAT ARE EXPERIENCING THIS.
BUT THE CITIES DO HAVE A ROLE.
WE, WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF THEM WHERE, UH, MULTI-FAMILY PROJECTS SHOULD HAVE BEEN APPROVED, UH, WHERE IT MADE GREAT ECONOMIC SENSE AND POLITICS ENDED UP, YOU KNOW, RE REMOVING THAT OPPORTUNITY.
SO, UH, CITIES ACROSS THE STATE NEED TO STEP UP A LITTLE BIT, BUT SEDONAS JUST SO DIFFERENT FROM THIS BROADER STORY.
IT WAS HARD TO PUT THAT STORY INTO THIS.
THE SHORT TERM RENTAL ISSUE, THOUGH, ONE OF THE ARGUMENTS FROM THE OTHER REPORT FROM THE SV REPORT IS, UH, IT WAS, IT DIDN'T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOME PRICES.
BUT I THINK THAT'S WHEN YOU CAN GO BACK TO EVEN BASIC THEORY.
IF YOU HAVE MORE INDIVIDUALS DEMANDING HOMES THAN IS SUPPLIED, PRICES ARE GONNA GO UP.
AND THEN WHEN THOSE HOMES AREN'T MADE AVAILABLE PERMANENTLY, UH, YOU KNOW, 'CAUSE NONE OF THE, THE SHORT TERM RENTALS AREN'T OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE YEAR.
IT, IT, IT KIND OF THROWS A LOT OF THE STUFF OUT OF BALANCE IN TERMS OF THE NORMAL ANALYSIS.
THERE'S A WHOLE, THERE'S A WHOLE BACKSTORY GOING ON ON THAT SECTION.
I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT.
AND I, AND WE'RE NOT GONNA FIGURE IT OUT RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW, AND I KNOW WE NEED TO MOVE ON, BUT, YOU KNOW, SEDONAS MEDIAN INCOME WENT DOWN IN 2020 AND IT EYEBALLING IT GOT BACK TO 2019 LEVELS IN 2022.
SO MY READ ON THAT IS, IS THAT WE LOST JOBS, WE LOST HIGHER MEDIAN INCOME.
WHY DID WE LOSE THAT? IT WAS ACTUALLY PEOPLE THAT HAD MOVED TO THE SURROUNDING AREA IN THE VERDE VALLEY, DID THEY LO LEAVE ALL TOGETHER? UM, BUT I THINK THERE'S SOMETHING THERE THAT'S IMPORTANT TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND BETTER.
AND, AND THAT'S ALL I'LL SAY FOR NOW.
UH, WHAT, WHAT I'D LIKE TO OFFER THEN IS, UM, WE'LL ADD AN EXTRA CHAPTER OR A DECENT SECTION IN AN APPROPRIATE PLACE THAT GETS INTO THIS IN MORE DEPTH, KIND OF TALKS ABOUT THE BASIC FUNDAMENTALS.
BUT THEN WE'LL TRY TO EXTRAPOLATE THOSE AND TRY TO AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME SOLUTIONS.
IT MIGHT NOT BE, HERE ARE THE EXACT THREE THINGS THAT HAPPEN, BUT WE CAN SAY, HERE ARE THE THINGS THAT WE WOULD EXPECT TO HAPPEN AND HERE'S SOME OF THE DATA THAT SUPPORTS IT.
SO, UM, I THINK IT WOULD ADD TO THE REPORT TO LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DEPTH.
SO I JUST MADE A NOTE ABOUT THAT.
JIM, BEFORE YOU GO ON, I JUST WANNA CLARIFY FOR THE COUNCIL, DO YOU WANT US TO INTERRUPT YOU? UH OH, INTERRUPT.
AND HOLLY, I KNOW YOU'RE, UH, OUT THERE, SO JUST JUMP IN IF YOU, UH, FEEL THE NEED.
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SO THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT WE HAVE TO DECIDE ABOUT RELATED TO WHAT WE WANNA CALL HOUSING AFFORDABILITY.AND IN, IN, IN CHATTING WITH STAFF AT ONE POINT WAS MADE, UM, SOME FEEDBACK THAT WE GOT THAT WAS VERY GOOD, UM, FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HOW WE'VE HAD TO LOOK AT HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN THE PAST.
IF, BECAUSE THE HOUSING IS MORE EXPENSIVE HERE AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF BASE SECTOR, UH, UM, INDUSTRIES THAT TEND TO PAY A LITTLE BIT LOWER, YOU ARE JUST IN A SITUATION WHERE THE HOUSING ISN'T GONNA MATCH UP WITH THE PAY OF THE EMPLOYEES.
AND THAT'S WHY YOU HAVE A BROADER REGION THAT YOU DRAW FROM IT.
THAT'S JUST HOW ECONOMICS WORKS.
UM, BUT THE, SO THE, WE HAD TO DIFFERENTIATE, AND I THINK THIS WAS A GREAT POINT.
UM, I I THINK THE ATTORNEY MADE THE POINT IS IF THE ST CAME IN AT THAT LEVEL, SUCH A HIGH PERCENTAGE, OBVIOUSLY IT WOULD'VE PUSHED PRICES UP.
AND SO SAY AT $800,000, HOME WENT UP TO 950,000, BUT THE EIGHT, SO THAT'S LESS AFFORDABLE.
BUT THE $800,000 HOME WAS NEVER GONNA BE AFFORDABLE TO THE EMPLOYEES IN THE AREA.
SO WE HAVE A DIFFERENT, IT'S A DIFFERENT DISCUSSION OF JUST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY.
WHEN WE LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT AREN'T AS UNIQUE AS SEDONA, WHERE YOU DON'T HAVE THAT ADVANTAGE THAT CAN PUSH HOUSING PRICES UP 'CAUSE PEOPLE REALLY WANNA LIVE HERE.
AND IT'S ALSO LIMITED IN THE ABILITY TO EXPAND.
'CAUSE YOU'RE NOT GONNA BE PUTTING SKYSCRAPERS UP NEXT TO THE RED ROCK.
SO IT'S ALWAYS GONNA BE THE SITUATION.
BUT WE WANT, WE, UH, THE, WHEN THAT ISSUE WAS BROUGHT UP, WE REALIZED WE NEED TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN DO THE STRS HAVE A IMPACT ON PRICE INCREASES? ABSOLUTELY.
THEY WOULD, DID IT ADDRESS THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM RELATED TO WORKFORCE? PROBABLY NOT.
SO THAT'S WHEN WE MADE A PIVOT AND WE WORKED WITH, UM, ANNETTE ABOUT WHY DON'T WE SPEND A LITTLE BIT MORE TIME ON THE REPORT AND DEAL WITH WORKFORCE.
UM, WE, THAT WASN'T PART OF THE INITIAL ASSIGNMENT, BUT IT HAD TO BE BECAUSE IT'S A DIFFERENT QUESTION HERE.
SO I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU JUST SAID.
BUT IN THE VERY BEGINNING OF, I ALWAYS THINK THE FIRST THREE TO FIVE YEARS, ALL THE LOWER END HOUSES THAT WERE OUR WORKFORCE HOUSING, THOSE WERE GRABBED UP FIRST.
SO THEY CAME OFF THE MARKET FIRST.
AND SO THAT AFFECTED THE WORK.
SO WE DID, WE LOST THE WORKFORCE HOUSING FIRST.
MOVING FORWARD THEN THE MORE EXPENSIVE HOUSES WENT ON THE MARKET AND THEY TRANSFERRED OVER.
BUT DOES THAT PLAY INTO THAT REPORTED ALL BECAUSE THAT DOES AFFECT WORKFORCE HOUSING, BUT YEARS AGO.
YEAH, NO, UM, THAT'S A VERY GOOD POINT.
AND, UH, IN, IN, IN A HANDFUL OR SO SLIDES, UM, WE HAVE SOME EXAMPLES OF, OR AT LEAST GIVE, GIVING OUR THOUGHTS ON WHAT WE OBSERVED AND, UM, TO WHAT EXTENT IS IT RELEVANT FOR MAYBE SOME POLICY CHANGES.
'CAUSE WE KNOW YOU WANT THE REPORT NOT JUST TO READ AND THEN SAY, WELL, THAT'S INTERESTING.
IT, IT SHOULD BE PRODUCED SO THAT MAYBE YOU CAN FORM SOME PUBLIC POLICY OR PARTNERSHIPS OR SECURE FUNDING WITH OTHER PARTNERS.
IT, IT, WE WANT IT TO BE USABLE, BUT YEAH, I'LL, I'LL HIT ON THAT IN JUST A COUPLE MINUTES.
UH, SO AGAIN, THE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE, THE QUESTION WAS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT.
UM, BECAUSE, UH, WHEN, WHEN WE WERE INITIALLY BROUGHT IN, IT WAS DISCUSSION AT THE STATE ABOUT SHORT-TERM RENTALS, SHOULD THE STATE BE DOING SOMETHING RELATED TO IT.
AND THERE WAS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY AT THAT TIME, BUT THAT WENT AWAY QUICKLY.
IT'S, IT'S BEEN SO DYSFUNCTIONAL AT THE CAPITOL, THERE WAS REALLY NO CHANCE OF HAVING ANYTHING IMPLEMENTED THIS YEAR.
BUT THAT'S WHY WE THINK THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GOOD IDEAS IMPLEMENTED THIS COMING YEAR.
SO INSTEAD OF TREATING IT AS WE'RE LATE THIS SESSION, WE'RE EARLY FOR THE NEXT SESSION AND, UH, WE'LL SEE WHERE THAT GOES.
UM, SO THE, THE FACT THAT 18% OF THE HOUSING UNITS, UH, OR ST R COMPARED TO THE STATE'S 1.6%, THAT'S WHY, UM, WE THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE A MUCH BIGGER IMPACT ON THE WORKFORCE.
UM, BUT AGAIN, IT HAS TO DO WITH EVEN HISTORICAL AFFORDABILITY HAS BECOME A PROBLEM EXCEPT, YOU KNOW, LIKE YOU SAID, MR. MAYOR, THERE WAS SOME PRODUCT THAT COULD HAVE BEEN WITHIN THAT RANGE, THE 500,000 AND LESS, UH, GROUP.
AND WE HAVE SOME NUMBERS FOR THAT TOO.
JIM, IF I, IF I COULD ASK A QUESTION HERE.
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HERE WITHIN THE CITY OVER THESE PAST YEARS ABOUT THAT 18% NUMBER, AND THAT'S ACTUALLY A LOW NUMBER BECAUSE MANY OF THE HOMES IN SEDONA BEHIND LOCK GATES AND HOAS AND THE EFFECTIVE NUMBER IS REALLY QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT.HOW DOES THAT MAP INTO YOUR THINKING IN TERMS OF POLICY, UH, DECISIONS? IF, IF IT WAS 16 OR 21, IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T, BUT THE, THIS HAS COME UP MORE AND MORE, UM, UH, A POPULAR RESOURCE.
WE FOUND A LOT OF INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DATA, UH, WHERE IT SEEMED TO BE DESCRIBED AS MORE DEFINITIVE.
UH, AND THEN IN REALITY AND WORKING WITH STAFF AND GETTING BETTER NUMBERS, UH, IT WASN'T OFF BY JUST 10%.
YOU KNOW, IT, IN ONE CASE, SOMETHING WAS WHAT, 150% HIGHER IN THE OTHER ESTIMATE THAN, UM, WHAT WE GOT FROM THE CITY.
SO WE, UH, TRUST THE DATA FROM THE CITY.
THE, THE THING THAT'S GONNA BE CHALLENGING WITH ANY BROADER STATEWIDE, UH, EFFORTS IS THE STUFF THAT YOU TRACK IS MUCH MORE DETAILED THAN OTHER COMMUNITIES TRACK.
AND SO WHAT I, WHAT IT, IT'S EASIER TO IMPLEMENT NEW PUBLIC POLICY WHEN YOU TRACK DATA, BUT YOU DO SUCH A GOOD JOB HERE.
I CAN'T THINK OF ANOTHER COMMUNITY THAT TRACKS IT AT THE LEVEL THAT YOU DO AND PAY ATTENTION TO IT.
AND SO THIS IS ONE OF THE FEW EXERCISES WHERE WE DON'T JUST HAVE TO SAY, WELL, WE HOPE THAT THAT AIR DNA DATA IS ACCURATE.
AND THEN THEY ACTUALLY EXPLAIN WHY.
UM, I THOUGHT THAT WAS BRILLIANT.
TALKING ABOUT HOW THERE MIGHT BE CAMPGROUND SITES THAT ARE INCLUDED, UH, HOTELS, UH, IT WENT THROUGH, IT WAS GIVEN A, A LONG LIST OF DIFFERENT REASONS WHY THE AIR DNA DATA WAS INCORRECT.
SO THAT MADE ME TRUST THE STAFF INFORMATION EVEN MORE.
UM, IN TERMS OF POLICY MAKING, IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE AN EXACT NUMBER, BUT IN TERMS OF IF, IF, WHEN YOU'RE VOTING ON SOMETHING AND IT MIGHT BE A CLOSE VOTE, HAVING AN EXACT NUMBER MIGHT SWING SOMETHING ONE WAY VERSUS ANOTHER.
SO IT'S ALWAYS BETTER TO HAVE GOOD DATA.
AND SO YOU, YOU HAD REFERENCED A RANGE OF 16 TO 21, BUT YOU KNOW, THE CITY DATA SHOWS IT'S REALLY 30% OF, OF HOUSES THAT AREN'T IN HOAS THAT COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR SHORT TERM RENTALS.
YEAH, THAT'S, THAT, THAT'S A BIG CHANGE.
WELL, ETHAN, AND, AND LOOKING AT THE DATA, I HOPE YOU DON'T MIND ME ASKING MY COLLEAGUE, UM, A QUESTION OR TWO AND LOOKING AT THE DATA.
DID WE HAVE SOME GOOD PERSPECTIVE ON DO WE HAVE DATA THAT WE CAN TRUST THAT'S NOT JUST THEIR DNA, BUT EVEN IF IT IS, IS THERE A REASON TO SUSPECT THAT IT'S ACCURATE WHEN THERE'S REFERENCES TO, TO WHAT EXTENT IS A PROPERTY OCCUPIED? BECAUSE IT'D BE REAL INTERESTING.
ANOTHER SECTION THAT WE CAN ADD IN FOR YOU IS WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT.
IT'S, UM, THAT HYPOTHETICAL OF YOU HAVE THIS SHORT TERM RENTAL VERSUS SOMETHING ELSE.
WHAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SOMETHING ELSE? AND THEN ON THE SHORT TERM RENTAL, WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? EVEN IF, UH, THE, THE VISITORS ARE SPENDING MORE, AND WHEN I COME HERE, I SPEND A LOT MORE THAN I DO DAILY BACK HOME.
I, I MEAN, I DON'T GO OUT THE EAT THREE TIMES A DAY OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT EXCEPT WHEN I'M VISITING AND, UH, YOU KNOW, SPENDING MONEY ON OTHER ACTIVITIES.
BUT DO YOU THINK THAT, DO YOU THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO RECONCILE THAT? UH, YEAH.
SO YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE SEASONALITY, SEASONALITY OF, OF THESE SDRS YEAH.
SO THAT'S DEFINITELY SOMETHING I'VE BEEN, UM, CONCERNED ABOUT AS OF NOW.
UM, THERE'S A LOT OF DATA CONSTRAINTS FOR THAT, UH, SEASONALITY ASPECT TO IT.
SO IT'S DEFINITELY SOMETHING WE'RE, I'M STILL, UM, TRYING TO GATHER HOW, HOW ABOUT WE COMMIT TO TAKING THE BEST STAB THAT WE CAN AT THIS ON GIVING SOME PER, SOMETIMES WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW A NUMBER, WE HAVE TO MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS ON ECONOMIC INCENTIVES, UM, TAX CREDITS, WHATEVER IT MIGHT BE ALL THE TIME.
SOMETIMES YOU JUST DON'T KNOW THE NUMBER.
BUT WHAT WE DO IS WE PROVIDE AN EXTREME.
AND SO FOR EXAMPLE, LET'S SAY THAT A BUSINESS WAS GOING TO, UH, UH, REQUIRE $500,000 IN INCENTIVES AND SOME INFRASTRUCTURE.
[00:30:01]
A CITY A MILLION DOLLARS, BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW FOR SURE HOW FAST THEY WERE GONNA EXPAND.WELL, WE COMPARE THAT COST TO THE MOST CONSERVATIVE EXAMPLE POSSIBLE.
AND IF IT'S STILL PENCILS OUT, THEN WE KNOW THAT IF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT PENCILS OUT, THEN OBVIOUSLY THE BETTER CASE AT PENCILS OUT TOO.
SO MAYBE ON THIS WE CAN PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SCALE.
SO IF WE CAN MAKE, IF WE CAN GET RELIABLE INFORMATION ON THE OCCUPANCY THAT WE TRUST, AND THAT'S WHAT WORRIED ME WHEN WE STARTED SEEING THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE A DNA DATA.
BUT IF WE CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THAT PERSPECTIVE, I THINK IT WOULD BE HELPFUL.
SO DOES THAT, WOULD YOU BE OKAY IF WE ADDED A SECTION ON THAT ONE TOO, MAYOR, IF I MIGHT? UM, WE DO HAVE ON OUR WEBSITE, YOU KNOW, OUR GIS MAP THAT SHOWS WHERE THE LOCATION IS OF ALL THE PERMITTED ST.
AND VISUALLY YOU CAN SEE THOSE CONCENTRATIONS IN NEIGHBORHOODS THAT COUNCILOR FURMAN IS TALKING ABOUT.
UM, BUT YES, BECAUSE IT'S SNAPSHOT, UM, IN TIME OF WHAT'S PERMITTED AS OF A CERTAIN DATE, YOU KNOW, TO HAVE LIKE A TOTALLY PURE NUMBER IS HARD BECAUSE THEY CHANGE ALL THE TIME.
BUT, UM, AT THE END OF THE PRESENTATION, WE CAN BRING THAT MAP UP JUST AS A VISUAL FOR YOU.
AND THAT, WAS THERE A DISCUSSION? I, I DUNNO IF PETE, YOU HAD THIS DISCUSSION ALSO, BUT OF REDOING THOSE NUMBERS AND REMOVING THE HOAS FROM THOSE CALCULATIONS TO BE MORE FAIRLY ACCURATE? CORRECT.
SO YOU HAD ASKED ME PREVIOUSLY MAYOR ABOUT, UM, IF WE HAD A PARCEL COUNT OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES, UM, THAT WE COULD TAKE OUT OF THE DENOMINATOR BASICALLY OF THE FORMULA.
THAT'S WHERE THAT NUMBER ROUGHLY, IT'S, IT, IT APPROACHES 30%.
AND I DIDN'T HEAR THAT JUST NOW.
SO, UH, AND THAT'S VERY CONCERNING BECAUSE THAT WOULD, I BELIEVE, LAST I HEARD, PUT US THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA IN THE STATE OF SHORT TERM RENTALS.
DEREK, I DON'T THINK WE CAN JUST TAKE OUT EVERY HOUSE THAT'S SUBJECT TO AN HOA BECAUSE THERE A LOT OF HOUSES OUT THERE WHERE THE, THERE'S AN HOA THAT NO, I I AND THEY JUST IGNORE IT.
BUT WE KNOW WH WHICH HOAS ARE ENFORCING.
AND IT'S NOT MULTIFAMILY ONES, RIGHT? WHAT'S THAT? THE MULTIFAMILY ONES YOU TALKING ABOUT? NO.
WELL, LIKE CAA CONTENT IS FOR ONE, RIGHT? THE GATED COMMUNITIES, AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT THAT'S INCLUSIVE OF ALL, BUT TO MY UNDERSTANDING, THE GATED COMMUNITIES ARE, HAVE BANNED SHORT-TERM RENTALS AND HELD TRUE, UH, SEDONA WEST IS AN HOA THAT IS BUCKLING UNDER FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS, BUT THEY'RE NOT GATED.
SO THEY ARE BEING TAKEN OVER BY SHORT-TERM RENTALS.
SO WE WOULDN'T INCLUDE, THAT WOULD BE JUST AN IRREGULAR NUMBER.
BUT THERE ARE, FOOTHILL SOUTH IS ANOTHER FOOTHILLS, WEST NORTH SLOPES.
THOSE ARE HOAS THAT ALL LOCKED DOWN AND THERE ARE NO SHORT TERM RENTALS, BUT YET THEY'RE, THEY'RE INCLUDED IN THAT, THE ORIGINAL NUMBER.
I'VE DONE A LOT OF WORK ON THIS.
HI, I'M LAUREN, THE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR WITH THE CITY.
UM, THERE'S A LOT OF WAYS THAT YOU CAN SLICE THIS AND DICE IT.
UM, I'VE SPENT COUNTLESS HOURS WITH THERESA.
UM, IT IS, IT'S HARD WHEN YOU GET INTO PARCELS, YOU JUST HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT TALKING ABOUT NUMERATORS AND DENOMINATORS HERE, THAT IT'S APPLES TO APPLES.
AND SO, UM, I GET MORE COMFORTABLE BY SAYING CERTAIN NEIGHBORHOODS HAVE A DENSITY OF SHORT TERM RENTALS, BECAUSE SOME OF THE NEIGHBORHOODS, IT GETS REALLY HARD WITH, UH, WE ARE NOW, WE ARE NOW REQUIRING FOR SHORT-TERM RENTAL OWNERS.
EVEN IF YOU HAVE MORE THAN TWO OR MORE THAN ONE LISTING ON A PARCEL, YOU'RE GOING TO GET A PERMIT WITH THERESA.
BUT THERE ARE SOME PARCELS, LET'S TAKE IN UPTOWN WHERE IT'S ONE PARCEL, BUT THERE ARE LOTS OF SHORT TERM RENTALS IN THAT PARCEL BECAUSE IT'S AN APARTMENT BUILDING, NOW YOU'RE MESSING WITH THE NU NUMERATOR AND THE DENOMINATOR AND THE PERCENTAGE.
AND THEN DO YOU DO THAT CITYWIDE? SO I THINK WHAT YOU'RE GETTING AT IS TO TELL THE STORY, TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE TELLING THE ACCURATE STORY.
AND MY COMMITMENT IN THIS PROCESS IS THAT I'LL WORK WITH YOU, JIM, TO MAKE SURE THAT THAT WHAT IS THAT THE, THE DATA WE HAVE, 'CAUSE WE'VE DONE A LOT ON THIS, UM, DOES EXIST IN THE WORLD THAT YOU HAVE HERE AS WELL.
SO YES, IT IS 18%, BUT AS YOU AND I KNOW MAYOR, MANY OF OUR NEIGHBORHOODS ARE PUSHING SOMETIMES BETWEEN 30 AND 35%.
[00:35:01]
TO DO IT CITYWIDE, WHICH I TRIED TO DO AND I JUST DIDN'T HAVE THE TIME TO DO IT WHEN I STARTED LOOKING AT SOME OF THESE PARCELS, LIKE I SAID, THAT ARE ONE PARCEL, BUT HAVE AN APARTMENT BUILDING WHERE THERE'S LOTS OF DIFFERENT SHORT-TERM RENTALS AND SEND IT.SO THEN YOU'RE MESSING WITH THAT PERCENTAGE.
UM, AND YOU JUST HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT WHAT YOU'RE DOING THERE, YOU'RE GONNA APPLY TO THE WHOLE CITY.
UM, I'M JUST CONCERNED THAT WE'RE MAKING THIS MORE COMPLICATED THAN IT NEEDS TO BE.
I MEAN, IS THIS BIGGER THAN A BREAD BOX? YEAH, IT'S, IT'S BIGGER THAN A BREAD BOX.
UM, SO HOW MUCH TIME DO WE REALLY WANNA SPEND ON GETTING, YOU KNOW, OUT TO TWO SIGNIFICANT DIGITS ON THIS? AND, YOU KNOW, EXCLUDING THE HOA NEIGHBORHOODS GIVES AN INSIGHT TO PAIN AND SUFFERING BY THOSE NEIGHBORHOODS THAT DON'T HAVE AN HOA, BUT THE REALITY IS, IS 18 PERCENT'S A GOOD NUMBER.
THERESA DOES A PHENOMENAL JOB OF GETTING THE NUMBER RIGHT.
LIKE I'M OKAY THAT 18 PERCENT'S THE NUMBER.
I, I DON'T JUST, I JUST DON'T SEE A VALUE IN SPENDING A TON MORE TIME ON TRYING TO GET THIS TO ANOTHER ONE OR TWO, YOU KNOW, SIGNIFICANT DIGITS HERE GUYS, AS A LEGISLATOR, WHEN I LOOK AT NUMBERS AND I THINK 18 OR 30%, THERE'S A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THERE.
SO I, I WOULD, I WOULD THINK POLICY, BUT IT'S 18 PETE, I, I KNOW, BUT IF, IF THERE'S A 30% NUMBER THAT'S WE'RE ACTUALLY PUTTING OUT THERE, I WOULD BE MORE MOTIVATED AS A LEGISLATOR TO MAKE SOME KIND OF POLICY CHANGE.
AND I ALSO THINK THAT THOSE THAT OPPOSE SAID POLICY CHANGE ARE GONNA GO, YEAH, BUT THAT'S, THAT, THAT'S A DISTORTED NUMBER.
THAT'S, THAT'S PULLING A NUMBER THAT'S CONVENIENT TO YOUR ARGUMENT AS OPPOSED TO AN OVERALL THAT'S THE NUMBER, THAT'S ALL I'M SAYING.
BUT YOU DON'T THINK 18% IS THE OPPOSITE OF THAT, RIGHT? THAT 18% IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT? OF THE 30? WELL YOU'RE SAYING 30% WOULD BE A DISTORTED NUMBER AND IT'S NOT ACCURATE.
YOU'RE IMPLYING THAT IF THERE WEREN'T HOA RESTRICTIONS THAT THOSE NEIGHBORHOODS WOULD, WOULD ALSO HAVE ST MM-HMM
AND THAT THE PERCENT WOULD GROW EVEN FURTHER.
BUT YOU CAN'T KNOW THAT FOR SURE BECAUSE IF THE WHOLE CITY WAS AVAILABLE FOR CONVERSION TO STR, WE STILL MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY MORE THAN WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.
ISN'T NO WAY OF KNOWING ANY OF THIS EXCEPT WHAT WE HAVE FROM JIM AND THE OTHER FACTS WE GET FROM THERESA.
SO YEAH, I JUST WANNA SPEAK TO THAT.
I THINK KNOWING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 18 AND 30% IS, IS AN IMPORTANT PIECE OF KNOWLEDGE.
I MEAN, I WANNA PUT THE TIME AND EFFORT INTO UNDERSTANDING THAT AND TAKING THOSE OUT DOESN'T MEAN I DISMISSED THE 18%.
I THINK THERE'S A PLACE IN THE STORY, AS LAUREN POINTED OUT, YOU HAVE TO TELL BOTH THESE NUMBERS, YOU KNOW, BECAUSE THERE'S THE, THE WHAT PEOPLE IN THE COMMUNITY ARE EXPERIENCING AND FEELING.
AND THAT'S WHAT WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND AND BE ABLE TO CONVEY.
WE CAN'T DO THAT ON JUST THE ONE NUMBER.
SO I, I AM FOR PURSUING AND GETTING THAT INFORMATION.
I'M A LITTLE BIT WITH BRIAN BECAUSE WHETHER THE NUMBER IS 15%, 18%, 30%, WHATEVER IT IS, I WANNA REGULATE 'EM.
YOU WANNA WHAT? I WANNA REGULATE 'EM AND RIGHT.
WHETHER THE PERCENT, WHATEVER THE PERCENTAGE IS RIGHT NOW, WE CAN'T BECAUSE THE STATE, RIGHT? SO I MEAN, YES, THE INFORMATION IS USEFUL, BUT FOR ME PERSONALLY, IT DOESN'T CHANGE WHAT, HOW I WANT TO PROCEED.
BUT DON'T YOU THINK THAT, AGAIN, IF YOU'RE SITTING DOWN IN PHOENIX AND YOU'RE NOT REALLY AWARE OF SEDONA AND WHAT SEDONAS BEEN EXPERIENCING AND YOU'RE EVALUATING THAT WE HAVE AN 18% NUMBER, IT'S EASIER TO DISMISS THAN WHEN YOU SAY THERE'S A 30% IMPACT.
I MEAN, I THINK THIS IS COMPELLING FOR THE LEGISLATURE.
I DON'T THINK THE LEGISLATURE CARES IN WAY, FRANKLY.
WE'LL, WE'LL DO OUR BEST TO MAKE THEM CARE REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER.
I, I WANNA TOUCH OUT WITH STAFF.
I WANNA LOOK INTO IT SO I BETTER UNDERSTAND IT.
I, I, I THINK I UNDERSTAND WHEN YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT THE HOA, THEY'RE NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE THEY'RE RESTRICTED.
SO WHAT WOULD IT BE WITHOUT IT? SO IT'S A HYPOTHETICAL, BUT, UM, EVEN 18, UM, I THOUGHT THE NUMBER WAS WRONG.
I HAD ETHAN DOUBLE CHECK IT TWICE.
UH, 'CAUSE I THOUGHT THAT WAS TOO HIGH.
AND SO I'M HOPING THAT, UM, AGAIN, THIS IS GONNA END UP BEING A CASE STUDY THAT'S GONNA MOVE PEOPLE A LITTLE BIT MORE
[00:40:01]
THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE.AND WE DID A LOT OF WORK WITH DUCEY TEAM ON TAX POLICY AND ALL SORTS OF STUFF, BUT I DON'T THINK ANYBODY SAW IT COMING.
UM, DEREGULATION OF THE STR HOW DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES CAN BE IMPACTED.
'CAUSE AT THE STATE LEVEL, PEOPLE TEND TO THINK IN THE AGGREGATE, EVERYBODY'S GONNA BE IMPACTED THE SAME.
THEY DON'T TAKE THE TIME TO GET TO KNOW EVERY INDIVIDUAL COMMUNITY.
UM, YOU CAN GO AHEAD TO THE NEXT ONE.
UM, OKAY, SO TH THIS WAS JUST DOING SOME MATH ON THAT ISSUE THAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT ON HOW EVEN IF, UH, WE WERE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THE SHORT-TERM RENTALS, AND I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT IS LEGALLY POSSIBLE.
I, I'D, I'D BE INTERESTED IN HEARING FROM YOU IF THERE'S TIME ON WHAT THE GOAL HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE.
IS, IS IT TO LIMIT FUTURE? IS IT TO AGE OUT SOME OF THE CURRENT, BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE RELEVANT FOR SOME PUBLIC POLICY CHANGES WHERE WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT HOW YOU, HOW YOU WANNA APPROACH IT, IF IT'S A, IF IT'S A GOOD POLICY CHANGE.
BUT WE WERE JUST GETTING BACK TO SAYING, THIS IS A, THIS IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF AFFORDABILITY ISSUE.
THAT'S, THAT'S JUST GONNA BE A FACT NO MATTER HOW MUCH IT COMES DOWN THERE.
THERE AREN'T ENOUGH OF THE LOWER PRICE HOMES WHERE IT WOULD MAKE A HUGE CHANGE IN AFFORDABILITY.
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, DO YOU ONLY IMPLEMENT POLICY IF IT HELPS FIVE PEOPLE, 20 PEOPLE, A HUNDRED PEOPLE.
AT WHAT POINT DO YOU MAKE A DECISION IF YOU WANNA, YOU KNOW, TRY TO HELP INDIVIDUALS? SO, YOU KNOW, THAT'S NOT OUR CALL, THAT'S THE ELECTED OFFICIALS CALL.
AND SO WE WANNA, UM, WE HAVE A LOT MORE PERSPECTIVE.
THESE ARE JUST BULLET POINTS FOR DISCUSSION.
BUT THERE'LL BE A LOT OF EXTRA DATA OBVIOUSLY IN THE REPORT.
UM, YOU SHOULD GO TO THE NEXT ONE.
I WANNA GET TO THE LATER ONES.
UH, YOU KNOW, WHAT I FIND MISSING IS, IS THE RENTAL MARKETPLACE.
'CAUSE A LOT OF, UH, THE LOWER PRICE HOMES, THERE'S SOME NUMBER OF THE LOWER PRICE HOMES OR ON THE LONG TERM RENTAL MARKET.
AND THAT'S REALLY IMPACTED OUR WORKFORCE BECAUSE THEY WERE RENTERS.
AND THEN THE, THOSE HOMES WERE SOLD BECAUSE BUYERS CAME WITH OVERPRICED CASH OFFERS.
AND PEOPLE WHO WEREN'T EVEN CONSIDERING SELLING THEIR HOMES FOUND IT IRRESISTIBLE.
THEY HAD SO MUCH MONEY DIRECTED AT THEM.
AND SO THEY SOLD AND THEN TURNED THEM INTO, UH, SHORT TERM RENTALS.
AND THEN WE PROPOSE AND HAVE A PROGRAM THAT INCENTIVIZES HOME OF THE MARKETPLACE TO GO BACK TO LONG TERM RENTALS FROM SHORT TERM RENTALS HAS NOT BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL.
AND I DON'T SEE REALLY, AND I'VE TALKED TO THE REALTORS ABOUT THIS ALSO, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE HOMES WERE WE TO GET SOME RELIEF IN TERMS OF AFFORDABILITY WOULD COME BACK AS RENTAL UNITS THAT MEMBERS OF THE WORKFORCE COULD AFFORD? 'CAUSE REMEMBER, THE WORKFORCE IS NOT JUST HOSPITALITY WORKERS, IT'S ALSO DOCTORS AND TEACHERS AND FIREFIGHTERS AND POLICE OFFICERS.
SO IT'S, IT'S, IT'S JUST NOT, PEOPLE SEEM TO THINK, AND I'M NOT ACCUSING YOU OF THIS BY ANY MEANS, BUT WHEN I HEAR PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IT, THEY ALWAYS REFER TO THE LOWER END OF THE WORKFORCE.
AND THE WORKFORCE MAY BE MORE DISTRIBUTED TOWARDS HOSPITALITY.
'CAUSE WE ARE A TOURISM TOWN, BUT IT'S NOT EXCLUSIVELY THAT.
AND WE'VE KNOWN PEOPLE WHO'VE HAD TO LEAVE SEDONA BECAUSE THEY'RE LONG TERM RENTALS, YOU KNOW, THEY WERE, WERE TURNED INTO SHORT TERM RENTALS AND THEY COULDN'T FIND ANY HOUSES.
I, I THINK THOSE WERE GOOD POINTS.
AND ONE TABLE THAT WE DID ADD AFTER WE, UM, CHATTED WITH STAFF IS BREAKING DOWN THE, UM, AT, AT, AT DIFFERENT OCCUPATION LEVELS.
SO YOU'RE, YOU'RE SPOT ON IN TALKING ABOUT, IT'S NOT JUST TOURISM WORKERS, IT'S UM, IN, IN SOME CASES SOME GOVERNMENT JOBS ARE LOW PAYING, IN OTHER CASES THEY'RE HIGHER PAYING FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, THE SAME THING.
UM, UH, WHAT WE CAN DO IS MAYBE EVEN EXPAND THAT TABLE.
BUT THERE, THERE'S, THERE'S A PARTICULAR TABLE I'M THINKING OF WHERE IT SHOWS THE OCCUPATIONS, THE WAGES AND THAT OCCUPATION, AND THEN IT CONVERTS IT INTO WHAT CAN BE AFFORDED WHAT, WHAT THEY COULD AFFORD.
AND IT'LL GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE
[00:45:01]
AT, OKAY, WELL, WHICH INDIVIDUALS ARE REALLY GETTING SQUEEZED OUT AND WHICH ONES MIGHT HAVE TO SPEND A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THEIR INCOME THAN YOU WOULD THEN WOULD BE OPTIMAL TO SQUEEZE INTO THE COMMUNITY, YOU KNOW, A LITTLE BIT CLOSER.AND THEN WHICH ONES ARE JUST NOT ATTAINABLE.
JIM, DID YOU SPEAK WITH NAH THE HOSPITAL SYSTEM? NO, BECAUSE THERE IS, UH, A LOT OF DETAIL AND DATA THERE THAT THEY'RE HAVING A PROBLEM FINDING ANY MEDICAL STAFF TO LIVE DOWN HERE.
NOT JUST BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF HOUSING, THE, THE SCHOOLS IS ANOTHER ISSUE, BUT THEY, UH, THEY'RE TRYING TO RECRUIT YOUNGER STAFF ACROSS, UH, THE BOARD.
AND IT, IF YOU WANT TO COME AND START A FAMILY HERE, OR YOU HAVE ALREADY HAVE A YOUNG FAMILY, THE SCHOOLS IS AN ISSUE, BUT THE HOUSING THAT'S AVAILABLE IS VERY, VERY LIMITED.
AND DOCTORS DON'T WANNA LIVE HERE.
UH, FLAGSTAFF ON THE OTHER HAND, SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE ATTRACTIVE TO THEM, BUT THEY ARE VERY MUCH CHALLENGED.
AND YOU MIGHT WANNA TALK TO, UH, THAT STAFF AND THAT I'M SURE WILL GIVE YOU THE CONTACT INFORMATION.
IF NOT, I WILL FOR DAVE CHENEY AND HIS LEADERSHIP TEAM, DAVE CHENEY, DAVE CHENEY, ANNETTE WILL, I'M SURE CONTACT, HE'LL GIVE YOU THE CONTACT INFORMATION AND THAT, YOU KNOW, WE TALK ABOUT, WE HAVE SOME PROBLEMS HERE IN, IN THE REGION.
YOU MOVE UP INTO, YOU KNOW, THE NORTHERN REGION.
YOU DON'T EXPECT FANCY STORES.
YOU DON'T EXPECT MAYBE THE BEST OF SCHOOLS.
I I WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER SCHOOLS, BUT WE ALL NEED BETTER HEALTHCARE.
AND THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG THINGS THAT PEOPLE ARE COMPLAINING ABOUT, THAT THEY'RE LEAVING HERE BECAUSE THE HEALTHCARE IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE.
NOW THAT WAS ON THE, THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM A COUPLE YEARS AGO.
AND IT'S, IT'S STARTING TO CHANGE BECAUSE THERE'S NEW LEADERSHIP THERE.
THEY'RE TRYING TO BRING BACK ALL THE, THE PROFESSIONS, BUT THEY ARE WHERE THEY ARE AND THEY CAN'T HIRE PEOPLE.
SO MAKE, MAKE SURE TO NOT READ THE MEDICAID REPORT THAT WE DID FOR THE STATE ON HOW IT'S GONNA IMPACT US IF, UH, THE MEDICAID DOLLARS ARE REDUCED, EVEN IN THE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO.
NOBODY WANTS TO ACCEPT THEM NOW.
UM, I, I, I THINK THAT EXPANDING SLIGHTLY, THAT CHART THAT, UH, ETHAN ALREADY ADDED ON THE OCCUPATIONS AND IT DID INCLUDE PHYSICIANS WOULD, UH, BE HELPFUL.
BUT, UM, THIS IS, THIS IS WHY THIS PROJECT, AND IT'S TAKEN SO MUCH LONGER TO GO THROUGH THIS THAN A, A NORMAL REPORT.
THERE'S SO MANY TANGENTIAL ISSUES WITH THIS THAT CAME UP THAT WE KIND OF DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO.
BUT IF IT WAS RELEVANT, WE WANTED TO ADD IT.
SOMETHING THAT I'VE BEEN TRYING TO DO PERSONALLY IS ACROSS THE STATE AND RURAL ARIZONA, EVERYWHERE, WE'RE HAVING A PROBLEM MAINTAINING PHYSICIANS.
AND WE HAVE A LOT OF PHYSICIANS THAT ARE RETIRING AND YOU HEAR HOW PEOPLE ARE WANTING TO ONLY PARTIALLY RETIRE.
WELL, WHAT'S DIFFICULT FOR THE PHYSICIANS TO PARTIALLY RETIRE IS THE, UM, INSURANCE, UH, DOC.
UH, I CAN SEE A DOCTOR THAT HA BRINGS A LOT OF WEALTH THAT MIGHT BE RETIRED, BUT MAYBE WANTS TO WORK A DAY OR TWO A WEEK AND MAYBE HAVE ANOTHER COUPLE OF PARTNERS, UH, THAT, YOU KNOW, MOVE HERE AS WELL.
THEY OCCUPY SOME OF THESE HOMES.
THEY'RE, THEY'RE STILL MAKING CURRENT INCOME, SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY AND TAKING CARE OF A NEED, BUT THEY CAN'T DO IT.
UH, WE RECOMMENDED LAST YEAR THAT WE SET UP A $10 MILLION FUND THAT REDUCES THE RISK FOR A LOT OF THESE BABY BOOMER TYPE RETIREES THAT WANT TO KEEP WORKING AND ENCOURAGE THEM AND USE SOME TOURISM MONEY TO ENCOURAGE THEM TO LOCATE IN DIFFERENT RURAL PARTS OF THE STATE AND MAKE IT WHERE THEIR, UH, INSURANCE IS MUCH LESS SO THAT THEY CAN ACTUALLY PERFORM.
WE COMBINE THAT WITH MAKING SURE THERE'S BROADBAND AND WE HAVE THE REMOTE, YOU KNOW, UH, UH, 'CAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE IN THE DOCTOR'S OFFICE EVERY TIME, BUT YOU NEED A DOCTOR TO BE THERE WHEN IT'S A, A BIG DEAL.
SO WE WERE STARTING TO LOOK AT THIS ISSUE, AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE GROUP THAT WE WERE LOOKING AT IT WITH WAS, UH, OUR FRIENDS AT THE GOLDWATER INSTITUTE BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO KNOW IS THERE AN ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT WAY OF ADDRESSING SOME OF THESE HEALTHCARE ISSUES.
AND I BROUGHT UP, YES, BUT WE HAVE TO MAKE SOME OF THESE INVESTMENTS.
AND IT'S A PROJECT WHERE I'M TRYING TO HELP THEM FIND SOME FUNDING SO THEY CAN DO SOME INITIAL RESEARCH, THEN WE MIGHT JUMP IN.
BUT THERE'S EFFORTS AROUND TO TRY TO ADDRESS SOME OF THESE ISSUES.
BUT I JUST FIND IT INTERESTING WE'RE HERE TALKING ABOUT SHORT TERM RENTALS, YET IT WAS RELEVANT TO BRING UP THIS ISSUE THAT I STILL WANT TO TRY THIS NEXT YEAR TO GET THIS FUND SET UP.
'CAUSE ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS HAVE THAT STATE REDUCE THE RISK AND THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE OUT THERE DOING HEART SURGERIES OR THINGS LIKE THAT.
WE'RE NOT GONNA SEE THE NEED FOR A HUNDRED THOUSAND OR $200,000 A YEAR MALPRACTICE INSURANCE WITH SURGEONS.
BUT I THINK THAT THOSE ARE THE TYPES OF POLICIES THAT WE NEED TO COMPLEMENT THE POLICIES THAT YOU IMPLEMENT.
[00:50:01]
GO, GO AHEAD BACK TO WHERE YOU WERE AND IF WE DO GET SOME MOMENTUM GOING ON THAT I'M HOPING THAT WE CAN REACH OUT AND GET SOME PERSPECTIVE FROM YOU ALL.IT'S ALWAYS BETTER TO COMMUNICATE WITH, UH, CITIES AND COUNCILS AND MAYORS AND STAFF, UH, WHEN YOU GET TO KNOW THEM BETTER AND MAYBE BRAINSTORM ON SOME OF THESE ISSUES.
'CAUSE IF WE'RE GONNA HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPLEMENT SOMETHING LIKE THIS, IT HAS TO BE SPOT ON SOLID THAT THE MOST LEFT-LEANING, UH, LAWMAKER AND THE MOST RIGHT-LEANING LAWMAKER CAN BOTH SAY THIS IS GONNA BE GOOD.
AND WE'VE ACCOMPLISHED THAT ON OCCASION, BUT IT'S RARE.
SO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE, UM, SHORT TERM RENTALS LESS THAN 500,000.
UH, THE NUMBER WAS 35%, WHICH IS 378.
NOW THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE THE FACT THAT PEOPLE CAN DOUBLE UP WHEN THEY'RE RENTING.
UH, WHEN I RENTED AN APARTMENT FOR, UH, A CHUNK OF MY EARLIER LIFE, UH, I NEVER RENTED JUST A PLACE FOR MYSELF.
SOMETIMES FAMILIES GET TOGETHER.
UM, SOMETIMES PEOPLE THAT WORKED TOGETHER WE'LL RENT TOGETHER AND THEN THEY'RE DRIVING ONE CAR INTO THEIR JOB AND THEY'RE REDUCING THE TRANSPORTATION COSTS AND THE CONGESTION.
SO THERE'S THOSE OTHER FACTORS AS WELL.
UH, BUT UM, IT, IT'S, IT'S A 35% LESS THAN 500,000.
THAT, MY CONCERN THOUGH, AND THIS IS MAYBE WHERE, GIVEN THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS, IS THE 500,000 JUST DIDN'T MAKE SENSE TO ME.
AND, UM, THIS IS AN AREA WHERE I FEEL LIKE WAS THIN IN OUR DRAFT BECAUSE AS AN ECONOMIST I WOULD'VE SAID THERE'S NO WAY.
BUT, UH, I THINK MI MR. MAYOR, I THINK THAT YOU WERE SAYING, BUT OVER TIME, THAT SHIFTED MM-HMM
SO I'D LIKE TO LOOK INTO THIS ISSUE A LITTLE BIT MORE BECAUSE I THINK IN THE END, ONE OF OUR MAIN CONCLUSIONS, AND AGAIN, IT'S GONNA BE SUGGESTIONS, UH, IT WOULD BE HERE'S SOME CONTEXT ON IF THE, IF, IF THESE WERE AVAILABLE OR THIS IS THE NUMBER THAT WOULD BE NEEDED IN ORDER TO SUPPLEMENT WHAT YOU'RE DRAWING FROM VERDE VALLEY, WHICH IS, UH, UH, YOU KNOW, WE GO DOWN THAT LIST, AT LEAST IT GIVES SOME CONTEXT.
BUT THE, THE THING THAT'S GONNA MAKE THIS CHALLENGING IS SINCE THAT PERCENTAGE IS SO HIGH, UH, 18% OR 30% OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, WHAT IS THE ACTION FROM IT THOUGH? SO WHAT DO WE WANT TO TAKE FROM THIS AND SOME OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT WE HAVE THAT ENDED UP GOING BEYOND JUST THE, THE SHORT TERM RENTALS? JIM? YES, SIR.
OH, YOU THINK THAT THE PERCENT OF STR WHOSE PROPERTY VALUE IS LESS THAN 500 K IS MORE THAN 35%? NO, I THINK I WOULD ARGUE IT'S, I THINK IT'S THE OPPOSITE.
YEAH, THAT WAS LIKE MY, ONE OF MY NUMBER ONE COMMENTS WAS NO WAY.
AND WHAT'S AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE VERSUS MARKET VALUE OF WHAT'S ACTUALLY OUT THERE DOESN'T NECESSARILY HAVE TO ALIGN.
BUT LIKE LOOKING RIGHT NOW ON REALTOR.COM AT $500,000 AND BELOW IN THE CITY LIMITS THAT ARE NOT PENDING OR CONTINGENT, THERE'S 16 PROPERTIES AND NINE, IF YOU EXCLUDE MOBILE HOMES AND ALL OF THOSE ARE CONDOS WHERE YOU'VE GOT AN HOA THAT'S MORE THAN A TYPICAL HOUSE PAYS, RIGHT? SO EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THOSE ARE IN THE MID FOUR HUNDREDS, YOU FACTOR IN THE COST OF THE, UH, MONTHLY HOA AND THAT REALLY BUMPS THE EFFECTIVE VALUE HIGHER STILL.
SO I'M GLAD TO HEAR YOU THINK THAT, THAT THAT 35 PERCENT'S TOO HIGH 'CAUSE THAT THAT JUMPED OUT AT ME AS A A NO WAY.
AND, AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WE WANNA DEFINITELY WORK WITH YOUR STAFF.
YOU HAVE REALLY GOOD STAFF ACTUALLY.
AND, UM, I WANNA BRAINSTORM WITH THEM.
BUT IF, IF, JUST FOR CONTEXT, IF YOU ASKED ME WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE SHORT TERM RENTALS WERE LESS THAN 500,000 AND I JUST WAS HERE GIVEN A SPEECH ON SOMETHING DIFFERENT, I WOULD'VE SAID 5%.
I MEAN, IT WOULD'VE BEEN A REALLY SMALL NUMBER.
UH, SO, BUT IN A LOT OF THESE CASES, WHEN THESE CALCULATIONS ARE DONE, THEY'RE DONE FOR A REASON.
SO BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT MADE UP.
SO WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHY IS IT SHOWING UP LIKE THAT? IS THERE A FLAW? AND IF EVERYTHING, YOU KNOW, ALL YOUR COMMON SENSE SAYS IT'S GOTTA BE A LOWER NUMBER, THEN WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO FIND WHERE IS THE FLAW THAT GETS TO THAT CALCULATION.
[00:55:01]
'CAUSE IT'S LIKE THERE'S PROBABLY NOT 378 PROPERTIES IN TOTAL WORTH LESS THAN 500,000 IN THE COMMUNITY.WHERE ARE YOU GETTING THOSE VALUES? RIGHT? I MEAN, SO GOOD IDEA.
SO THOSE, UH, REPRESENT THE, UM, THE STR LISTING, UH, STR LICENSE DATA, UM, THAT THE, UH, THE SVVR UM, REPORT ALSO, UM, INCLUDED AND IT, UH, WA THOSE WERE MATCHED WITH THE COUNTY EITHER, UM, YAVAPI OR COCONINO.
IT'S THE TAX VALUE, IT'S ASSESS VALUE, IT'S IT'S ASSESS NOT THE MARKET.
THE FULL CASH VALUE, THE ASSESSOR'S VERSION OF FULL CASH VALUE ISN'T BASED ON REALITY.
BUT THE, BUT YOUR ASSESSED VALUE CAN ONLY GO UP BY A MAXIMUM PERCENT PER YEAR.
SO MOST HOMES ASSESS VALUE IS LESS THAN THEIR MARKET VALUE AND IN SOME CASES BY A LARGE MARGIN.
THAT'S WHAT, EXCUSE THAT NUMBER WAY UP BECAUSE THERE ARE A LOT OF PROPERTIES THAT ARE ASSESSED AT FAR LESS THAN WHAT THEIR ACTUAL MARKET VALUE WOULD BE.
SO, SO THAT WOULD BE THE LIMITED PROPERTY VALUE.
UM, BUT THESE NUMBERS REPRESENT THE FULL CASH VALUE.
AND, AND WE EVEN TALKED ABOUT THIS ON THE WAY UP.
UM, IT SAYS CITY OF SEDONA, BUT IT WAS, UM, THE OTHER REPORT REFERENCING SOME DATA FROM THE CITY AND IT WAS JUST MISLABELED HERE.
BUT I THINK WE HAVE TO TALK WITH THE CITY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE RIGHT NUMBER IS.
'CAUSE AGAIN, I AM NOT EXAGGERATING.
I WOULD'VE SAID 5% WOULD'VE BEEN LESS THAN 500,000.
AND I, THAT MIGHT EVEN HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT HIGH IN MY HEAD JUST KNOWING THE COMMUNITY.
WELL, BUT AGAIN, THE FULL CASH VALUE ACCORDING TO THE ASSESSOR IS NOT, IS RARELY ANYWHERE NEAR MARKET VALUE.
IN FACT, I, WE, DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS GO, MAYBE THAT'S, I, IF THIS IS WHERE THE DATA WAS TAKEN FROM, UH, WE CAN, WE'VE DONE A LOT OF PROPERTY TAX ANALYSES, MAYBE WE CAN NORMALIZE IT AND PUT IN LIKE THE NORMALIZED VALUE.
AND I HAVE A FEELING IT STILL MIGHT BE, I I THINK IT STILL MIGHT SHOW THAT THERE'S MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING HERE THAN IS REALISTIC.
UM, BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS IS WITH THESE SHORT-TERM RENTALS, AND I'VE STAYED WITH THEM BEFORE TOO, USUALLY I'M THE ONE THAT HAS TO PAY FOR THE FAMILY'S VACATIONS.
AND SO IT'S VERY EXPENSIVE TO GET A WHOLE BUNCH OF HOTEL ROOMS. SO WE MIGHT RENT A HOUSE AND IT MIGHT BE AN OLDER HOUSE, AND YOU CAN REALLY TELL IN SOME CASES, BUT THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN THERE'S A REALLY THAT THE KITCHEN IS, YOU KNOW, 10 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE THAN MY KITCHEN.
AND, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A FEW LITTLE THINGS THAT ARE ADDED TO IT, BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO UPGRADE SOME OF THE OLDER, UH, CHEAPER HOMES.
AND THEN THOSE VALUES GO UP QUITE A BIT TOO.
UH, SO THERE'S, THERE'S A LOT GOING ON WITH THE PROPERTIES.
I SUSPECT THAT A LOT OF OUR LONG-TERM RENTAL MARKET WAS PEOPLE THAT BOUGHT HOUSES 20, 30 YEARS AGO AND WERE BASING THEIR RENTS ON WHAT THEY PAID FOR IT.
SO THEN SOMEBODY COMES ALONG AND SAYS, I'LL PAY YOU A MILLION DOLLARS FOR THE HOME.
WELL NOW IT'S A MILLION DOLLAR HOME AND NOW THE PERSON CAN'T CHARGE THE LOWER RENT.
UH, WHOEVER BUYS IT, YOU KNOW, THEY'VE MADE THE INVESTMENT, THEY HAVE TO DO THAT.
AND I MEAN, THIS IS BASED PARTLY ON ANECDOTAL MM-HMM
EVIDENCE, TALKING TO TEACHERS AND, BUT YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THESE LONG TERM LANDLORDS ABOUT THESE PROPERTIES 30 YEARS AGO, 20 YEARS AGO.
SO THEN SOMEBODY COME ALONG AND SAID, OH, YOU'RE CHARGING A THOUSAND DOLLARS A MONTH FOR THAT.
YOU COULD GET FOUR TIMES THAT.
WELL, THAT'S PART OF THE PROBLEM.
BUT ALSO, YOU KNOW, ACCORDING TO, UH, SAME LINES OF WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, DEREK, IS THAT I'VE HAD PEOPLE CONTACT ME AND NOT TO SCARE, PUT THE SCARE TACTIC OF BLOCK BUSTING BACK FROM THE, YOU KNOW, SIXTIES AND SEVENTIES BACK ON THE EAST COAST IN NEW YORK.
AND THE TOPIC THERE WAS TO FRIGHTEN PEOPLE TO LEAVE AND SELL THE HOUSE.
AND THAT'S GOING ON NOW OF DO YOU WANNA LIVE IN A HOTEL? IT WILL IT BE THE ONLY HOUSE IN A HOTEL.
AND THERE ARE SCARING PEOPLE AND YOU'LL SEE ADS AND POSTCARDS COME TO PEOPLE'S HOMES, WILL BUY YOUR HOUSE FOR CASH.
I GET PHONE CALLS ON MY, ON AN UNLISTED LINE THAT THEY CALL, AND IT'S THE SAME THING.
DO YOU WANNA SELL YOUR HOUSE FOR CASH? I GOT TWO OF THOSE YESTERDAY.
AND I DON'T EVEN ANSWER THE, YOU KNOW, MY LANDLINE ALL THAT OFTEN, BUT I STILL HAVE IT FOR OTHER REASONS.
BUT WHY ARE PEOPLE SELLING, ESPECIALLY AS WE
[01:00:01]
GET OLDER INTO SEVENTIES AND EIGHTIES AND SOME PEOPLE INTO THE NINETIES, THEY WANNA MOVE INTO SOMETHING, YOU KNOW, LESS, UH, UH, CALLING OF THEIR TIME TO WORK AROUND THE HOUSE, OR THEY DON'T, THEY WANNA GO TO A ASSISTED LIVING FACILITY.THEY'RE SCARED, THEY DON'T WANNA LIVE IN A HOTEL THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN.
I GET THOSE CALLS FROM HOUSTON FROM WHERE HOUSTON HOUSTON, DO YOU WANNA SELL YOUR PROPERTY IN HOUSTON? OH, SURE.
WHAT DO I OWN IN HOUSTON NOW? IT'S ME.
WE'RE GETTING A LOT OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF PHONE CALLS LATELY, BUT I DON'T WANNA GO ONTO THAT.
SO, UH, BUT ALL THESE REASONS ARE CAUSING PEOPLE TO WANNA SELL.
AND IT'S, THAT'S WHY WE, WE, EVERY OTHER STATE DID, HAVE YOU LOOKED AT OTHER STATES IN THE COUNTRY? DO THEY, UH, FORCE CITIES AND TOWNS TO HAVE THEM UNCHECKED WITH NO LOCAL CONTROL? I'M HAVING A STUDY DONE MYSELF, ANECDOTALLY, FROM SOME PEOPLE WHO WERE HELPING ME.
AND I BELIEVE THAT ARIZONA'S THE ONLY STATE THAT HAS IT.
BECAUSE THEY DON DON'T WANT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN ARIZONA TO HAPPEN IN THEIR STATE.
UM, ETHAN, YOU LOOKED AT A BUNCH OF STATES, BUT, UH, THAT THE DEREGULATION THAT WE HAD WAS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT.
AND WHAT, WHAT EXACERBATED IT WAS, THERE'S CERTAIN AREAS WHERE INVESTORS TEND TO BUY HOMES AND NOT JUST TO PUT 'EM INTO SHORT TERM RENTALS, BUT TO LATER SELL THEM, RENT THEM IN THE SHORT TERM.
AND WHERE WOULD A INVESTMENT FUND GO? IT GOES TO A STATE THAT IS DESIRABLE, IS STILL GROWING AND HAS VERY FEW PROPERTY TAXES.
UM, MY IN-LAWS IN TEXAS HAVE A HOME ABOUT THE SAME SIZE AS MINE.
I THINK THEIR PROPERTY TAX IS FIVE TIMES GREATER THAN OURS.
UH, I'M, I'M NOT EXAGGERATING.
I THINK IT IT'S BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE TIMES GREATER.
UH, SO YOU ALREADY HAVE A HUGE NUMBER OF INVESTORS INTERESTED IN THE AREAS, AND THEN SOME OF THOSE CAN BECOME SHORT-TERM RENTALS.
AND, UH, IRONICALLY, IT, IT HAS TO, UH, A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT WE JUST ARE STILL A, WE HAVE A FAVORABLE ECONOMY.
YOU KNOW, THERE'S SOMETHING SPECIAL ABOUT SEDONA OBVIOUSLY THAT THAT MAKES, THAT MAKES IT EVEN MORE SO.
BUT NOT HAVING THAT, THAT PROPERTY TAX, I, WE EVEN RECOMMENDED ONE TIME WHERE WE WANTED TO BRING THE INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX DOWN, REDUCE THE SALES TAX AND IMPLEMENT A STATE PROPERTY TAX.
AND WE THOUGHT WE COULD DO IT AND ACTUALLY SAVE THE TAXPAYER MONEY OVER TIME.
NO ONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT A STATE PROPERTY TAX EVER.
SO, I MEAN, I LEARNED VERY QUICKLY.
I WHEN THOSE, WHEN THOSE REQUESTS COME UP TO PARTICIPATE IN THOSE COMMITTEES, YOU KNOW, JUST PRETEND THAT YOU'RE BUSY OR YOU'RE GONNA BE ON VACATION, THEN YOU'RE GOOD.
UM, ONE OF, UH, WE WEREN'T REAL CLEAR WITH THIS ONE, UH, WHICH I WANNA CLARIFY.
SO WHEN THIS SHIFTED TO WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GET THE WORKERS, UM, WE WERE ALREADY INFORMED ABOUT THE, UH, UM, THE SHUTTLE PROGRAM.
AND ONE OF THE IDEAS WAS, IS THERE A WAY TO MAKE IT MORE ROBUST? 'CAUSE IT'S USED PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM STAFF.
UM, AND I THINK SOMEBODY EVEN MENTIONED THAT THE HIGHEST RATE OF USE WAS JUST RECENTLY, UH, SHUTTLING IN FROM, UH, COTTONWOOD INTO, INTO HERE.
AND SO ONE OF THE QUESTIONS WOULD BE TO EXPAND IT, BUT THAT COSTS MONEY.
UM, THEN YOU HAVE TO GET DOWN TO OTHER ISSUES.
LIKE WE, EVEN IN THE SV REPORT, IT HAD AN ESTIMATE FOR THE EXTRA REVENUES THAT THE COMMUNITY RECEIVES FROM THE SHORT TERM RENTALS.
'CAUSE WE'VE LOOKED AT A COUPLE OF, THREE YEARS AGO WE DID A SEPARATE ANALYSIS.
WE CAN COMPARE THAT AND LET YOU KNOW IF THAT'S AN ACCURATE NUMBER.
BUT THERE'S THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE TO BRING WORKERS IN FROM A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY.
UH, EVEN SCOTTSDALE IN THE MIDDLE OF A BIG METRO AREA, A LOT OF IT'S, UH, UH, TOURISM, UH, JOBS ARE THE PEOPLE HAVE TO COME FROM MESA AND THEY HAVE TO, UH, COME FROM, YOU KNOW, THE VERY FAR, UH, SOUTHEAST VALLEY AND THEY'RE TRAVELING A LONG TIME FOR LOWER WAGE JOBS.
SO IT, IT, THIS, THIS ISN'T COMPLETELY UNUSUAL, BUT WHEN WE WERE SAYING EXPAND THE AREA, IT WAS REALLY EXPAND THE AREA BASED ON INDIVIDUAL PROGRAMS. AND ONE THING THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT, 'CAUSE WE DO A LOT OF WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE AND COMMUNITIES, IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES IS, WELL, THE, THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS DAYCARE AND TRANSPORTATION.
SO LIKE, TWO OF THE THINGS THAT COULD IMPACT HERE, UM, WE, AND THIS IS WHERE, UH, YOUR, YOUR ATTORNEY WAS VERY HELPFUL.
[01:05:01]
I'D LIKE TO SEE AS PART OF A REALISTIC HOUSING PACKAGE FOR NEXT YEAR, SINCE THE ONE DIED THIS YEAR, SINCE WE WERE LUCKY WITH THAT, IT GIVES US THE OPTION TO MAKE IT MORE ROBUST IS, I, I FIRST WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE STATE AND THE COUNTY WORK WITH COMMUNITIES LIKE SEDONA ON MAYBE EXPANDING THE SHUTTLE SERVICE, BUT WE WANT TO ENABLE THE SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND GOVERNMENT ENTITIES TO BE ABLE TO DISPOSE OF AND UTILIZE ANY VACANT, UM, PROPERTIES.BUT IF YOU HAVE TO RENT IT AT MARKET RATES, LIKE SAY FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A, A, A SCHOOL AND IT DOESN'T NEED ALL THE CLASSROOMS, AND YOU BASICALLY HAVE AN EMPTY KINDERGARTEN, A FORMER KINDERGARTEN CLASSROOM, ONE OF THE THOUGHTS THAT WE HAD WAS THE GOVERNOR JUST SAID DURING THE STATE OF THE STATE THAT THIS WAS GONNA BE A PRIORITY ON CHILDCARE, BUT NOTHING WAS DONE BECAUSE OF THE BUDGET.
WELL, OUR THOUGHT WAS THESE SCHOOLS HAVE ALREADY THE INFRASTRUCTURE SET UP FOR PARENTS DROPPING OFF KIDS AND PICKING UP KIDS.
WHAT IF WE ALLOWED LOWER THAN MARKET RATES FOR AN AFFORDABLE DAYCARE IN CERTAIN NEIGHBORHOODS? AND THEN THAT MIGHT SAVE SOMEBODY THAT'S TRAVELING TWO OR THREE OR $400 A WEEK, WHATEVER THE PRICES ARE.
MAYBE, MAYBE IT SHOULD BE A MONTH, I'M NOT SURE.
BUT IT WOULD SAVE THEM A LOT OF MONEY AND IT WOULD COST US NOTHING.
AND IT WOULD GENERATE A LITTLE BIT OF REVENUE FOR THE SCHOOL.
WELL, STATUTE RESTRICTS THE ABILITY TO DO THAT FIXED STATUTE.
UM, AND THERE'S INTEREST, AND, AND YOU'LL LOVE THIS, I I DON'T KNOW IF ANY OF YOU KNOW, UM, CHAD TON, BUT HE, UH, UM, RUNS A, UH, KIND OF A THINK TANK OUT OF NAU, BUT HE'S DOWN IN THE VALLEY.
HE RAN THE PHOENIX UNION SCHOOL DISTRICT.
HE'S KIND OF THE GO-TO SMART PERSON AS THE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT.
UH, HE AND, UH, MY FRIEND VICTOR RICHES AT, AT GOLDWATER AND MYSELF, WERE TALKING ABOUT FORMING A VERY UNLIKELY ALLIANCE TO HAVE A BILL THAT ALLOWS SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND GOVERNMENT ENTITIES TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE FLEXIBILITY WITH HOW THEY USE THEIR PROPERTY.
BECAUSE THE IDEA IS TO PROVIDE THINGS THAT IS NOT GONNA COST THE TAXPAYER ANY MONEY WHEN WE CAN, WHY WASTE RESOURCES THAT ARE JUST SITTING THERE? AND SO THERE'S ACTUALLY SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE ARGUMENT THAT MAYBE WE CAN MOVE THE NEEDLE SO THAT WE CAN HAVE SOME OF THESE SITES BE LOWER RENT THAT GETS PASSED ON TO THE, UM, THE PERSON THAT MAYBE NEEDS THAT DAYCARE SERVICE.
SO WE'RE TRYING TO, WE ARE TRYING TO THINK OF WAYS OF THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX ON CAN WE HELP WITH REDUCING THAT COST OF BRINGING PEOPLE IN FROM FARTHER AWAY.
UM, YOU CAN GO TO THE NEXT ONE, PLEASE.
SO I'M CLEAR, AND I THOUGHT I HEARD YOU SAY IT, BUT I WANTED TO BE REALLY CLEAR ABOUT THAT.
IS THAT IN YOUR REPORT, I HOPE THIS WORDING THAT EMPLOYEES WILL NEED TO BE MUCH WIDER THAN THE CITY IS CHANGED BECAUSE IT IS EMPLOYEES COME FROM MUCH WIDER THAN THE CITY.
SO THE, THE FACTS ON THE GROUND ALREADY SPEAK TO THIS.
AND THEN I HEARD YOU SAY, HOW CAN WE EVEN ENHANCE THAT EVEN FURTHER? YEAH, IT WAS IT, AND THAT WAS MY FAULT.
THAT WAS MY WORDING WAS TO EXPAND IT.
BUT I WAS THINKING ABOUT EXPANDING IT FOR NEW PROGRAMS, UNDERUTILIZED PROGRAMS, AND NOT NECESSARILY JUST GEOGRAPHICALLY, BUT INTENSITY.
UH, BUT THAT'LL, THAT'LL BE CLARIFIED.
'CAUSE AFTER LOOKING AT IT AGAIN, THAT YOU, AGAIN, WITH THE E EVEN JUST THE SHUTTLE AS AN EXAMPLE, CLEARLY YOU'RE ALREADY LOOKING AT THAT, BUT ARE THERE SOME WAYS WHERE THIS CAN BE SUPPLEMENTED? AND I STILL, EVEN THOUGH THE STATE HAS BUDGET PROBLEMS AND THERE'S ALL SORTS OF THINGS, ALL THE NEGATIVE THINGS ARE BEING DISCUSSED, THESE TYPES OF PROGRAMS TEND TO HAVE A POSITIVE ROI FOR TAXPAYERS.
BECAUSE IF YOU CAN MORE EFFICIENTLY KEEP THE ECONOMY GOING, IF IT, IF WE'RE UTILIZING SPACE THAT, UH, OTHERWISE WOULD BE VACANT, THERE'S ALL SORTS OF WAYS OF CREATING BENEFITS TO THE TAXPAYER AND PROVIDING BETTER SERVICES THAT JUST TEND TO NOT GET CONSIDERED AT THE STATE.
SO, UH, I THINK THAT THERE COULD BE, I WOULD LOVE TO BE ABLE TO RECOMMEND THAT PROVIDING SOME KIND OF SUBSIDY TO HELP ENHANCE THE SHUTTLE SERVICE COULD BE PART OF, UH, EVEN THE HOUSING, UH, REPORT AND PACKAGE, BECAUSE IT DIRECTLY HAS TO DO WITH IT.
AND THAT COULD APPLY TO OTHER COMMUNITIES AS WELL.
UH, BUT THE DAYCARE IS A BIG DEAL, AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT'S VERY POPULAR.
UM, AND THEN OTHER ISSUES ARE GONNA COME UP.
UM, AND I ALSO WANTED TO FIND OUT, AND THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE AFTER THIS MEETING, YOU MIGHT HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL IDEAS THAT, UM, UM, WE MIGHT WANT TO COLLECT AND THEN PLOW INTO THE REPORT AS WELL.
BUT YOU MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER THREE OR FOUR IDEAS LIKE WHAT WE'RE
[01:10:01]
TALKING ABOUT, WHERE IT CAN, YOU KNOW, ENHANCE, UH, THESE OPPORTUNITIES.JIM, UH, BEFORE YOU GO, BRIAN, JUST TO LET YOU KNOW, WE HAVE THE LAST 20 MINUTES IF WE CAN, BECAUSE WE HAVE ANOTHER LONG, UH, ITEM AFTER THIS.
I DON'T THINK WE'RE IN HALFWAY THROUGH THE SLIDES.
WELL, WELL, BUT HE, JIM SAID THAT HE, HE CUTS THROUGH SOME OF 'EM, SO, BUT IF WE HAVE TO GO A LITTLE BIT LONGER, FINE.
BUT REMEMBER THAT WE DO HAVE ANOTHER ITEM AND WE DO END AT SIX.
UH, JIM, THE CHILDCARE THING, UH, RESONATED WITH ME.
IT'S SOMETHING THAT I'VE SPOKEN WITH MAYOR ABOUT AND, AND OTHERS, UH, PREVIOUSLY, AND IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE PROXIMITY, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT HELPING SAY THE SCHOOL DISTRICT, RIGHT? LIKE, THIS ENHANCES THE WORKFORCE'S ABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE TO WORK, RIGHT? SO THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD REASONS TO LOOK AT HOW CAN THAT, HOW CAN THIS BE FACILITATED? SO YES, PLEASE EXPAND UPON THAT, UH, THE IDEAS AND THE VALUE PROP BEHIND THAT.
AND WHEN YOU APPROACH THE FINAL REPORT.
UM, WE'LL, WE'LL GO THROUGH THE REST QUICKLY.
UH, UH, AGAIN, THIS WAS JUST KIND OF A TEASER FOR THE REPORT TO GET THE DISCUSSION GOING, BUT, UH, GO, GO AHEAD AND SCROLL THROUGH A FEW MORE.
YOU KNOW WHAT, SKIP TO THE END.
WELL, THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD INFORMATION.
WELL, THE, THE GREAT, THE GREAT THING IS THAT THIS HAS BEEN, WE, WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING A LOT OF THESE TOPICS THAT ARE, UH, WE'VE ALREADY BEEN COVERING MOST, MOST OF THESE POINTS, WHICH HAS BEEN GOOD.
UM, THERE, THERE WAS A QUESTION ABOUT, UM, THE VALIDITY OF SAYING THAT RETIREES, UH, SPEND LESS MONEY, UM, THAT, I MEAN, THAT'S EVEN PART OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT, WHERE YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR SAYS, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF YOUR CURRENT INCOME WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE CONTINUE TO COME IN AS YOU RETIRE? UH, SO IT, IT, IT'S USUALLY LESS.
UH, BUT IT GETS BACK TO THAT FORMULA OF ARE THE TOURISTS THAT ARE SPENDING TONS OF MONEY FOR THEIR VACATION THAT WEEK, ARE THEY IN THAT HOME THE ENTIRE YEAR, JUST DIFFERENT FAMILIES EVERY WEEK? OR IS IT ONLY HALF THE YEAR? UM, IT, IT, IT CAN VARY.
SO WE'LL PROVIDE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON THAT.
BUT WHAT WE CAN ANSWER THOUGH IS, WELL, WE CAN ASK IT, IS WHAT, BASED ON DISCUSSIONS THAT WE, YOU KNOW, JUST HAVEN'T BEEN IN FRONT OF YOU FOR, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT YOU ALL HAVE BEEN CONSIDERING? HAS IT BEEN LIMITING, UM, FUTURE, UH, STR COMING IN? IS IT TO AGE SOME OUT? UH, WHAT ARE SOME OF THE IDEAS? 'CAUSE THE, THE LEGAL ISSUES GET PRETTY COMPLICATED.
UH, BUT WE HAVE A RECOMMENDATION IN HERE THAT'S GONNA BE VERY UNPOPULAR, I'M SURE.
BUT AS A SMALL BUSINESS OWNER, I FELT MORE THAN COMFORTABLE RECOMMENDING IT.
UM, I BELIEVE IF SOMEBODY HAS A SHORT TERM RENTAL PROPERTY AND THEY WANNA RENT IT AND EARNED INCOME, THAT'S FINE.
I HAVE A BUSINESS AND I RENT, BUT I'M ALSO PAYING THE PROPERTY TAX THAT MY LANDLORD IS PAYING THROUGH MY RENT.
I PAY, I HAVE REGULATIONS RELATED TO WHAT I DO.
I HAVE TO SPEND A LOT OF MONEY IN DIFFERENT AREAS.
IF A SHORT TERM RENTAL PROPERTY IS PRIMARILY TO RENT OR INCOME, IT'S A BUSINESS, IT DOES A DISSERVICE TO EVERY OTHER SMALL BUSINESS OUT THERE TO NOT CONSIDER IT A BUSINESS.
SO, JIM, NOW, I'M NOT SAYING TAX IT, BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THERE SHOULD BE A SEPARATE PROPERTY TAX CLASS FOR STR AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO TAX IT, BUT THAT OPENS UP THE DOOR TO GIVE A LITTLE MORE FLEXIBILITY WITH HOW THE CITY MIGHT MANAGE NOISE COMPLAINTS OR THINGS LIKE THAT.
BECAUSE RIGHT NOW YOU GOTTA KEEP THINGS CONSISTENT.
BUT A SHORT TERM RENTAL PROPERTY, IF IT'S USED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, IS A BUSINESS.
AND THAT'S SOMETHING AT THE STATE LEVEL THAT WE'RE GONNA RECOMMEND.
BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO TAX IT, BUT IT DOES DISTINGUISH IT AS A SEPARATE PROPERTY.
SO JIM, I WOULD LIKE TO TOUCH ON THAT FOR A MOMENT.
I HAVE THIS INFORMATION, IT'S NOT VERIFIED.
I'M WAITING TO GET THE CLARIFICATION.
UH, AND MAYBE OUR CITY DEPUTY CITY ATTORNEY CAN ANSWER THIS, BUT, UH, I'M, I HAVE A CALL INTO SOME OF THE COUNTY ASSESSORS ACROSS THE STATE, AND I'M UNDERSTANDING THAT I'VE BEEN TOLD, AND AGAIN, IT'S NOT VERIFIED THAT THEY ARE NOT TAXING SHORT-TERM RENTALS FOR WHAT THEY ARE IN BUSINESS FOR,
[01:15:01]
WHICH IS IN VIOLATION OF EITHER THEIR OATH OR THEIR, THEIR STATE STATUTE OR THE CODE, WHATEVER THEY'RE SU THEY'RE REQUIRED BY, UH, WHATEVER IT WOULD BE TO TAX FAIRLY ACROSS PROPERTIES.AND I MAY BE PHRASING IT WRONG, BUT IF IT'S A BUSINESS, YOU TAX 'EM AS A BUSINESS.
IF IT'S A HOME, YOU TAX IT A HOME.
AND BECAUSE A STATE AND 1350 IS NOT ALLOWING THEM TO DO THAT, HAVING TO TREAT THEM AS A HOME, THEY ARE NOT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THEIR MANDATE.
DO YOU HAVE, HAVE YOU HEARD THIS BEFORE? UH, IT'S MY UNDERSTANDING THAT WE'RE GONNA REQUIRE LEGISLATION IF THAT'S GONNA PASS.
IT'S GONNA HAVE TO BE VERY, IT'S GONNA HAVE TO BE VERY CLEAR.
I DIDN'T HEAR THE, THE, WHAT, WHAT YOU JUST MENTIONED ABOUT HOW THERE'S DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT IT COULD CURRENTLY APPLY.
BUT IF THERE'S ANY QUESTION ABOUT IT, YOU KNOW, GIMME 10 MINUTES AND I'LL DRAFT THE BILL AMENDMENT AND WE'RE GOOD TO GO.
BUT AGAIN, I'M NOT SAYING OVERTAX THE STR, I'M NOT SAYING I UNDERSTAND REDUCE IT, IT'S JUST, TO ME THIS IS COMMON SENSE AND IT GIVES COMMUNITIES FLEXIBILITY TO DO WHAT THEY WANT TO DO.
UM, AND I THINK THE STR OWNERS THINK ABOUT THESE AS A BUSINESS.
WE DON'T HAVE THESE HUGE, UH, REAL ESTATE FUNDS BUYING PROPERTIES BY SAYING WE'RE BUYING A BUNCH OF HOMES FOR OUR EMPLOYEES.
WE DON'T HAVE INDIVIDUALS BUYING THEM THAT ARE STAYING IN THEM THREE QUARTERS OF THE TIME AND RUNNING THEM PART OF THE TIME.
THERE MAY HAVE TO BE SOME TOUGH QUESTIONS THAT ARE ANSWERED.
WHAT IF SOMEBODY RENTS THEIR PROPERTY FOR PART OF THE YEAR? MAYBE THERE HAS TO BE A THRESHOLD.
BUT THAT'S SOMETHING AT THE STATE LEVEL THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED THAT I THINK WOULD HELP YOU ALL IN THE LONG RUN.
AND AGAIN, YOU DON'T HAVE TO, YOU DON'T HAVE TO TAX 'EM.
YOU CAN IMPLEMENT A PROPERTY TAX NOW IF YOU WANTED TO, BUT YOU CHOOSE NOT TO.
IT IS NO DIFFERENT WITH THE SHORT TERM RENTAL OPTION.
BUT IF IT'S OWNED BY AN LLC OR CORPORATION, THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN SCOTT JALO OWNING A PIECE OF PROPERTY.
SO THERE'S NO, YOU KNOW, MAYBE THERE'LL BE A QUESTION, I'M NOT AN ATTORNEY, BUT, UH, I DON'T KNOW IF THAT WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE, BUT YES, I, I BELIEVE IT.
I'VE HEARD BEFORE THAT THERE WOULD BE LEGISLATION FOR NEXT YEAR PROPOSED, BUT THAT'S WHY I'VE BEEN, IT WAS SUGGESTED TO ME TO START TALKING TO THE TAX ASSESSORS ACROSS THE STATE, WHICH IS WHAT I'M STARTING TO DO.
THAT IT, IF IT'S OKAY WITH YOU, I'D LIKE TO FOLLOW UP ON THAT.
BECAUSE IF WE'RE GONNA DO ANYTHING ON HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, RIGHT? THAT'S ACTUALLY GONNA PASS AT THE CAPITOL THAT EVERYBODY WILL BELIEVE IS GONNA HELP.
WE DON'T DRAFT IT IN MARCH OR FEBRUARY.
WE START IN JUNE, OR WHENEVER EVERYBODY GETS BACK FROM VACATION AFTER BEING BEATEN DOWN AT THE CAPITOL, WE START RESEARCHING IT.
WE START DOING OUTREACH WITH THE INDIVIDUAL COMMUNITIES.
AND AGAIN, I KNOW THAT AMONG THE SHORT TERM RENTAL OWNERS, THAT WOULD BE A HORRIBLY UNPOPULAR ITEM, BUT IT'S STILL A BUSINESS.
AND IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT HAS TO BE TAXED.
I HAVE SOME OTHER INFORMATION THAT I'M NOT READY TO PUT OUT YET.
SO, UH, KATHY, YEAH, THIS GOES ALONG THE SAME LINE.
I DON'T WANNA SHOOT THE MESSENGER.
UM, I APPRECIATE ALL THE WORK.
BUT
IT'S NOT OPEN TO US BECAUSE OF, OF THE STATE.
UM, AND YOU SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH ANY KIND OF SHORT TERM RENTAL REGULATIONS THIS SESSION, THE LAST YEAR'S SESSION, SESSION BEFORE.
I MIGHT SEE THE TREND CHANGING ON THAT.
THERE'S BEEN, THE STATE HAS REPEATEDLY SAID A HOUSE IS A HOUSE.
HAVE YOU USING IT AS A PRIVATE RESIDENCE OR AS A SHORT-TERM RENTAL BUSINESS? I AGREE WITH YOU THAT THEIR BUSINESS, IT'S STILL RECOGNIZING A HOUSE IS A HOUSE.
SO WE CAN'T, THIS AVENUE IS NOT OPEN TO US.
BUT JIM'S SAYING NEW LEGISLATION.
AND I JUST SAID THAT I LOOKED AT THE, THIS YEAR'S, UM, SESSION, LAST YEAR'S SESSION, THE SESSION BEFORE THAT.
AND I DON'T SEE A TREND CHANGING ON THAT.
SO I, I JUST DON'T WANT US CHASING RAINBOWS, YOU KNOW? I UNDERSTAND.
AND, AND, AND KATHY, I, I'M SORRY, COUNSEL.
UM, THE, SO ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THERE'S BEEN, WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET DOWN INTO THE WEEDS ON THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS THAT THERE'S STILL BICKERING OVER WHETHER OR NOT THE CITIES HAVE CAUSED ALL THE PRICE INCREASES OR, OR SOMETHING ELSE.
THEY'RE STILL AT FOURTH GRADE ARGUMENTS BEING MADE AT THE CAPITOL.
AND THE REASON THAT WE WANT TO WORK WITH THE LEAGUE AND EVEN, YOU KNOW, OUR CONSERVATIVE FRIENDS, UH, UH, THE GROUPS THAT MIGHT HAVE TO DO WITH EDUCATION AND, YOU KNOW, DAYCARE IS, ALL OF THIS
[01:20:01]
STUFF REALLY NEEDS TO BE PART OF A COMPREHENSIVE PACKAGE.AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION, WE DIDN'T HAVE JUST A SIMPLE, HERE'S THREE CHANGES THAT CHANGED THE ECONOMY.
WE HAD THREE DECADES OF DECLINES IN OUR PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME.
WE CHANGED A LOT AND WE DID IT 'CAUSE WE NEEDED TO.
AND I'M HOPING THAT IF WE DON'T START LATE, LIKE WE HAVE BEEN ALL THE, YOU KNOW, THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS, UM, WE HELPED GET RID OF THE BILL.
THE FIRST YEAR WE DID A PEER REVIEW OF THE REPORTS THAT WERE OUT THERE AND WE SAID, HERE ARE THE FACTS.
AND HERE, HERE'S WHERE IT'S FALSE.
UM, BUT I'M A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC, UM, THAN YOU KATHY, ONLY BECAUSE I FEEL LIKE IF WE DO THIS RIGHT, WE CAN GET TO THE SPECIFICS.
THE SHORT TERM RENTALS WERE REMOVED FROM THE DISCUSSION BECAUSE THEY WERE BATTLING OVER THE BASICS OF ZONING AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
THEY COULDN'T EVEN RESOLVE THAT.
SO YOU DON'T WANNA MUDDY UP THE DISCUSSION TOO MUCH 'CAUSE THEN THE BILL WOULD BE KILLED.
SO THEY TRIED TO SIMPLIFY AND THEY, BUT IF YOU KEEP SIMPLIFYING, YOU NEVER GET DOWN INTO THE DETAIL STUFF.
AND THAT'S WHERE IT, IT, I, I KNOW THAT WE HAVE SOME RECOMMENDATIONS IN THERE FOR, IT'S NOT REALLY A RECOMMENDATION, IT'S JUST, HERE'S SOME FACTUAL OBSERVATIONS.
THERE'S SOME STUFF THAT YOU CAN DO AND THERE'S SOME STUFF THAT YOU CAN'T DO.
THE STUFF THAT YOU CAN DO POTENTIALLY WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
BUT WHAT I'M HOPING IS THAT WE'LL BE ABLE TO, UH, COMMUNICATE THIS INFORMATION WITH A LOT OF CITIES.
WE NEED MORE PEOPLE AT THE CAPITOL BANGING THEIR FISTS ON THE PODIUMS. LIKE WHEN I STARTED AT THE CAPITOL, NOW EVERYBODY'S WORRIED ABOUT, YOU KNOW, LOSING THEIR, THEIR JOB WITH AN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GROUP.
THEY DON'T GO DOWN THERE AND COMPLAIN.
I REMEMBER THE DAYS WHERE PEOPLE HAD FEISTY CONVERSATIONS, BUT THEN THEY WENT AND HAD A BEER AFTERWARDS AND IT WAS COOL.
POLITICS IS JUST DIFFERENT NOW.
BUT AS A CONSULTING FIRM, I CAN'T LOSE MY JOB.
I MIGHT LOSE THE, UH, PROJECT.
SO I FEEL LIKE WHEN THERE'S OPPORTUNITIES, YOU GOTTA SPEAK UP.
AND I REALLY FEEL LIKE THIS IS GONNA HELP WITH THIS BROADER DISCUSSION.
BUT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST COUPLE YEARS WE'VE HAD A SENATE PRESIDENT AND A HOUSE SPEAKER THAT HAVE REFUSED TO LET BILLS BE HEARD, PERIOD, RIGHT? 'CAUSE THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY BEHOLDEN TO A COUPLE WELL-KNOWN LOBBIES, RIGHT? MM-HMM
WHAT'S GONNA CHANGE? I MEAN, THE FACT THAT THIS IS GONNA BE A GREAT CASE STUDY AND WE HAVE GREAT IDEAS AND YOU'RE HELPING US TELL A BETTER STORY.
IF YOU STILL HAVE TWO PEOPLE THAT ARE GOING TO BE A COMPLETE OBSTRUCTION TO ANY REASONABLE DISCUSSION, WHAT'S IT MATTER? HOW DO WE GET AROUND IT? THAT'S, THAT'S THE POINT I DON'T WANT TO GIVE UP.
BUT HOW DO WE GET AROUND TO OBSTRUCTIONISTS? BECAUSE THERE'S BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR REFORM.
WELL, IT'S, IT'S AMAZING HOW THE LITTLE GUY CAN HAVE AN IMPACT ON THINGS.
WHEN WE WERE DISCUSSING, WHEN, WHEN WE WERE FACED WITH THAT HUGE INCOME TAX INCREASE FROM CALIFORNIA, EVERY NUMBER THAT YOU SAW WAS OURS, WE'RE THE ONES THAT TESTIFIED IN COURT.
SIX PEOPLE, UH, WE'RE THE ONES THAT DID THE MATH.
UM, WHEN WE HAD THAT TWO AND A HALF PERCENT FLAT INCOME TAX THAT WAS HOLDING AN OBSESSION, THERE WAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO USE INSTEAD OF CUTTING IT FURTHER, WHICH WAS GONNA CAUSE PROBLEMS, WE AGREED TO WORK ON.
WE TURNED DOWN THE WORK WITH THE GOVERNOR.
WE KEPT THE, A MUCH SMALLER PROJECT WITH THE LEAGUE OF CITIES TO HOLD THE CITIES HARMLESS ON IT.
BUT WE WERE IN A POSITION WHERE WE NEGOTIATED WITH THE TWO HOLDOUT LAWMAKERS WHERE WE PUT A HALF A BILLION DOLLARS INTO PAYING OFF DEBT AND ANOTHER HALF A BILLION DOLLARS INTO THE RAINY DAY FUND, WHICH IS GONNA SAVE THEIR BUTTS RIGHT NOW.
AND THEY DIDN'T REALIZE THAT A LOT OF THAT MONEY WAS TEMPORARY BEFORE.
UM, I'M A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE GOLDWATER INSTITUTE, AND I'M ONE OF THE BIGGEST ADVOCATE FOR ECONOMIC INCENTIVES OUT THERE.
WE JUST NEED TO PUT A FEW PEOPLE TOGETHER THAT CAN COMMUNICATE AND BUILD THINGS UP.
AND THAT'S HOW WE BUILT OUR BUSINESS.
WE DO, WE DO REPORTS LIKE THIS, AND SOMETIMES WHEN WE SEE THAT SOMETHING'S NOT RIGHT, WE'LL GET A GROUP TOGETHER AND WE'LL MAKE SURE THAT SOMETHING HAPPENS.
SOMETIMES WE GET PAID FOR IT, SOMETIMES WE DON'T.
BUT THERE'S OTHER PEOPLE LIKE US TOO.
AND THEN THERE'S COMMUNITY LEADERS LIKE YOU ALL THAT CAN HAVE A SAY IN CERTAIN THINGS IN BEING SUPPORTIVE.
UM, BUT I, I'M NOT AS PESSIMISTIC JUST BECAUSE OF WE'VE DONE ENOUGH STUFF BEHIND THE SCENES.
AND I'M NOT SAYING WE'RE THE SOLUTION, I'M NOT TRYING TO IMPLY THAT AT ALL.
I'M JUST SAYING THAT WE'VE SEEN ENOUGH WHERE I FEEL LIKE THERE'S A PATH FORWARD.
BUT I GUARANTEE NEXT YEAR THERE WILL BE A BILL ON HOUSING AND IT PROBABLY WILL PASS EVENTUALLY.
AND THE ONLY WAY TO HEAD THAT OFF IS TO PUT TOGETHER SOMETHING BETTER WITH THE SMARTEST PIECE OF PEOPLE POSSIBLE SO THAT AN ALTERNATIVE THAT COMES UP
[01:25:01]
CAN BE DISMISSED IMMEDIATELY.AND, AND BY THE WAY, WE, I, I GIVE THE PRESENTATION TO THE, UM, HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS AT THEIR RETREAT.
UM, IT, THERE, THERE'S, THERE'S WAYS WHERE YOU CAN BE VERY PRO COMMUNITY, PRO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND STILL WORK WITH THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE.
UM, THAT, THAT SOUNDED IT, THAT, THAT SOUNDED A LITTLE BIT LIKE AN EGO ISSUE.
I'M JUST TRYING TO EXPLAIN WHERE, WHERE NOBODY, WE'RE A SMALL FIRM, BUT WE HAVE AN INFLUENCE THERE.
THERE'S A LOT OF OTHER ONES OUT THERE TOO.
I FEEL LIKE WE'LL MAKE SOME HEADWAY, BUT WE'LL NEED SUPPORT FOR THE LEAGUE AS A CORE ENTITY.
BUT THEN WE'LL HAVE TO GET SOME OTHER PARTNERS AS WELL.
AND I THINK WE GOTTA GET OUR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FRIENDS INVOLVED.
I'D LIKE TO SEE THE GEX AND THE CHAMBERS, THE LOCAL CHAMBER HERE, UM, INVOLVED IN UNDERSTANDING AND EXPLAINING THAT THIS IS AN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ISSUE.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY USED TO BE A WELFARE DISCUSSION.
NOW IT'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.
UM, A LOT OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, THE SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, THE CHILDCARE, EVERYTHING ELSE, IT USED TO BE MORE OF A WELFARE DISCUSSION.
NOW PEOPLE ARE REALIZING IT'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AND NOW PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT THINGS IN TERMS OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT THAT THEY NEVER DID BEFORE.
SO I'M HOPEFUL, 'CAUSE I'VE SEEN A LOT OF STUFF HAPPEN THAT YOU JUST NEEDED TO HAVE SOME PEOPLE BELIEVE AND, AND SUPPORT IT.
NOW, WOULD I BET MORE THAN A HUNDRED DOLLARS THAT IT'S GONNA HAPPEN? NO.
BUT YOU KNOW THAT IF IT DOESN'T, UH, I'LL COVER HAPPY HOUR.
UH, I MEAN,
JIM, I'VE GOT A, A COUPLE QUESTIONS.
I'VE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO SEEING YOU HERE IN OUR COUNCIL AND, AND HAVING THIS CONVERSATION.
AND I KNOW WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME, SO I'M GONNA PUT SOME THINGS ON THE TABLE AND PERHAPS THERE'S JUST ANOTHER TIME FOR YOU AND I TO TALK SO I CAN UNDERSTAND IT.
AND SOME OF THIS IS REALLY NOT FOR THE REPORT.
IT'S REALLY FOR HOW WE THINK ABOUT THINGS HERE LOCALLY.
I TOTALLY GET BRIAN, WHAT YOU WERE SAYING ABOUT 18% VERSUS 30%.
AND WHEN WE'RE WORKING STATEWIDE, I THINK WE HAVE TO TRY TO GET APPLES TO APPLES.
AND WE PROBABLY RELY ON 18% NUMBER, BUT WE OUGHT TO BE ALSO TALKING ABOUT THE 30% NUMBER, BECAUSE THAT'S A REALITY THAT'S HERE.
SO WHAT I WANTED TO ASK YOU WAS, ONE, I I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS MYSELF.
I DON'T HAVE THE, THE TOOLS OR THE EXPERIENCE TO THINK ABOUT IT.
I THINK YOU DO PERFECTLY, AND I'VE ALWAYS BEEN INTERESTED IN HOW AFFORDABILITY, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS, IT'S ALL AREA MEDIAN INCOME BASED KIND OF CALCULATIONS.
AND YOU PULL UP SOME OF THESE IN, IN YOUR REPORT HERE AS WELL.
AND I WONDER WITH 64% OF OUR POPULATION AT 50 YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER, AND I SUSPECT THAT A LOT OF THOSE BETWEEN 50 AND 65 ARE EARLY RETIREES.
AND THEN, YOU KNOW, MOST OF THAT NUMBER, 64% OF OUR FOLKS ARE RETIRED.
I WONDER HOW MUCH THAT DISTORTS THE A MI CALCULATIONS IF YOU'RE RETIRED VERSUS WORKING.
AND I WONDER IF WE OUGHT TO BE THINKING MORE SOMETIMES OF WHAT THE WORKING POPULATION INCOME IS RELATIVE TO AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING.
DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF HOW MUCH OF A DISTORTION THAT MIGHT BE FOR, YOU KNOW, A HIGHLY SKEWED RETIRED POPULATION? I GUESS I WOULDN'T CALL IT A DISTORTION RATHER THAN A DIFFERENT CALCULATION TO ANSWER A QUESTION.
UM, I WOULD THINK AT THE PERCENTAGES WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, IT WOULD BE VERY LARGE.
UM, BUT HAVING BUILDING UP LARGE AMOUNTS OF WEALTH OVER, OVER YOUR LIFETIME AND THEN DRAWING FROM THAT, IT'S STILL BRINGING MONEY INTO THE COMMUNITY.
IT'S, IT'S STILL A BASE SECTOR OPERATION NO DIFFERENT THAN IF IT WAS A FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FORESTRY WORKER THAT THE CHECK IS COMING FROM DC AND COMING IN HERE.
UM, BUT, BUT LET ME, LET ME, LET ME, THAT MIGHT BE A CALCULATION THAT WE COULD TRY TO DO.
MAY MAYBE WE CAN DO THE, FINISH THE REPORT, BUT HAVE EITHER AN APPENDIX OR MAYBE WE CAN WORK ON A MEMO THAT ADDRESSES SOME OF THESE QUESTIONS.
'CAUSE AGAIN, I, I, I DON'T MIND DOING THIS STUFF.
IT'S KIND OF FUN AND EVERYTHING THAT WE'RE DOING IS HELPING ME DO A BETTER JOB ON A LOT OF THESE ISSUES FOR THIS NEXT YEAR.
SO IF YOU HAVE SOME GOOD IDEAS, I'D RATHER HEAR ABOUT IT AND SPEND A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA TIME ANSWERING THEM WHILE I HAVE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO GET YOUR FEEDBACK.
YOU KNOW, THE, THE PROBLEM THAT WE'RE ALL ENGAGED IN THINKING ABOUT AND TRYING TO SOLVE HERE IN SEDONA IS HOW DOES THE WORKFORCE GET
[01:30:01]
HOUSING? AND I'M WORRIED ABOUT IF WE LOOKED AT JUST THE WORKFORCE, PEOPLE WHO ARE EMPLOYED AND DRAWING AN INCOME AND WHAT THEIR AVERAGE MEDIAN INCOME WOULD BE VERSUS WHAT THE, IT IS ON THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE.YOU KNOW, WE MIGHT HAVE DIFFERENT, SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT NUMBERS THAT ARE IN OUR POCKET THAT WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT.
SO, AND I DON'T KNOW WHETHER THAT'S A POSSIBILITY OR NOT, BUT I THINK ABOUT IT ALL THE TIME BECAUSE, UH, YOU KNOW, AN EARLY RETIRED PERSON IS, YOU KNOW, THERE'S VARIOUS STRATEGIES YOU DO TO LIMIT YOUR INCOME SO YOU CAN GET THINGS MM-HMM
AND THEN I THINK A LOT OF OUR POPULATION, OUR FOLKS THAT HAVE BEEN HERE FOR A LONGER TIME, WHO RETIRED AT MUCH LESS INCOME, RIGHT? AND SO THEIR RETIRED INCOME IS LESS, BUT THEY STILL ARE RETIRED.
THEIR HOUSE IS PAID FOR, THEY'RE ABLE TO MAKE ENDS MEET, BUT MAYBE NOT UNDER AN INCREASING COST OF LIVING SCENARIO.
BUT ANYHOW, IT'S JUST A CALCULATION, A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT THAT I'VE ALWAYS BEEN INTERESTED IN.
SO, MOVING ON, AND, AND REAL QUICK THOUGH, I'D LIKE TO FOLLOW UP WITH ANNETTE LATER BECAUSE, UM, THE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE IS GONNA BE AN ISSUE FOR SO LONG, AGAIN, YOU KNOW, GOING INTO THIS NEXT YEAR AND THEN EVEN BEYOND.
UM, MAYBE I CAN HELP FIND SOME EXTRA FUNDING WHERE YOU GUYS CAN DO A DEEPER DIVE ON SOME OF THESE ADDITIONAL ISSUES, BECAUSE WE CAN'T BUY OUR WAY OUT OF IT.
SO SPENDING AN EXTRA 20 MILLION FROM THE HOUSING TRUST FUND IS NOT SOLVING OUR AFFORDABILITY PROBLEM.
SPENDING 50,000 ON A REPORT THAT IDENTIFIES ALL THESE OLD DETERIORATED, UH, UM, RETAIL CENTERS, STRIP MALLS.
WE FREEZE THE PROPERTY TAX RATE WITH THE CITIES AT THE CURRENT PROPERTY TAX RATE.
THAT'S THE INCENTIVE FOR SOMEBODY TO BUILD AN APARTMENT COMPLEX.
YOU KEEP THAT FOR FIVE YEARS, COST TAXPAYERS $0, AND YOU HAVE NEW MULTIFAMILY HOUSING IN AN AREA.
THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT WE'RE RECOMMENDING AT THE STATE LEVEL.
SO, UM, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS SOME OF YOUR ISSUES AND SOME OF THE STUFF THAT WE'RE DOING.
AND, UM, UH, MAYBE LET, LET, LET'S CHAT ABOUT IT A LITTLE BIT.
I I THINK SOME OF THIS STUFF COULD BE A GOOD FOLLOW UP, BUT I WANNA SEE IF WE CAN MAYBE BRING SOME FUNDING TO THE TABLE FOR THAT.
ANOTHER SORT OF ODD, WEIRD TOPIC THAT I SPEND TIME THINKING ABOUT IS THE DISTORTION THAT WE MIGHT HAVE IN OUR COMMUNITY.
UH, BECAUSE OUR REVENUE IS GENERATED BY VISITORS, 80% OF OUR REVENUES ARE GENERATED BY VISITORS.
SO WHEN WE DO PRESENTATIONS AND WE TALK ABOUT THINGS, AND WE TALK ABOUT THE VALUE TO THE TAXPAYERS, THE TAXPAYERS AREN'T, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE GETTING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM FOLKS THAT AREN'T ACTUALLY TAXPAYERS HERE IN THE COMMUNITY.
AND I WONDER MANY TIMES HOW THAT ACTUALLY DISTORTS OUR OWN BUDGET AND HOW WE THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, HOW IT'S GOING.
BUT NONETHELESS, I THINK IT TOUCHES THIS TOPIC AS WELL.
UH, AND SO I'M, I'M, I'M VERY CURIOUS ABOUT THAT.
AND THEN FINALLY, THE LAST COMMENT I WANTED TO MAKE OR THING TO PUT ON THE TABLE IS, I THINK YOU TALKED ABOUT THIS, BUT, YOU KNOW, AFFORDABILITY IS ONE THING.
YOU TALKED A LOT ABOUT AFFORDABILITY, AVAILABILITY IS ANOTHER WAY TO TALK ABOUT THE ISSUE.
AND SURELY THE STR ISSUE AFFECTS AVAILABILITY, WHICH AFFECTS AFFORDABILITY.
AND, AND I BELIEVE THAT YOU'VE INDICATED TO ME THERE'S SOME WAYS THAT YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT THAT, BUT I DIDN'T HEAR THAT IN YOUR LANGUAGE.
AND SO I'M CURIOUS ABOUT THAT.
AND THEN ALSO, UH, HOW FOLKS THINK ABOUT PROPERTY PROPERTIES AS INVESTMENTS VERSUS PROPERTIES AS A TOOL TO LIVE YOUR LIFE AND WORK YOUR JOB.
AND I, I THINK WE SEE THAT AS AN INFLUENCE IN OUR COMMUNITY AS WELL.
WE HAVE INVESTORS COMING INTO THIS COMMUNITY THAT HAVE A DIFFERENT MINDSET ABOUT HOW MUCH THEY CAN PAY AND WHAT THEIR EXPECTATION IS OVER THE LONG RUN VERSUS THE PEOPLE THAT ARE WORKING AND TRYING TO, YOU KNOW, PAY THE BILLS FOR NEXT MONTH.
AND I THINK THAT IS AN INTERESTING AND POTENTIALLY DISTORTING ELEMENT THAT WE HAVE IN OUR COMMUNITY THAT ISN'T NECESSARILY STATEWIDE BECAUSE WE HAVE THIS LARGE POPULATION OF RETIREES THAT LIVE HERE.
AND, AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT STATEWIDE TRENDS, THAT'S GOOD.
AND I THINK YOU NEED TO DO THAT.
BUT LOCALLY HERE WE HAVE THESE DISTORTIONS THAT ARE UNIQUE, INTERESTING.
AND, YOU KNOW, YOU STARTED OFF BY SAYING SEDONA IS UNIQUE IN MANY WAYS, BUT I THINK ABOUT THOSE THINGS, YOU KNOW, QUITE A BIT.
MAY MAYBE, UH, AND I KNOW WE GOTTA GO IN A MINUTE, BUT MAYBE, UM, WE CAN COME BACK AND DO A BRAINSTORMING SESSION OR DO A PRESENTATION ON HOW FAR WE GOT, YOU KNOW, LIKE IN SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER.
UH, JUST TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON IF WE'RE MOVING THE NEEDLE ON ANYTHING, DO SOME MORE BRAINSTORMING.
UM, WE'RE PROBABLY GONNA TEAM UP WITH OUR BUDDY ANDY TOBIN, WHO KNOWS THE AREA REALLY WELL,
[01:35:01]
A GOOD FRIEND.IN FACT, HE WAS THE SPEAKER AT THE HOUSE WHEN WE DID ALL THE REFORM AT THE STATE.
UM, SO WE, WE TEAM UP ON PROJECTS TOGETHER.
UM, IT, I THINK IT WOULD, THIS IS JUST SUCH A UNIQUE CASE.
IT RAISES QUESTIONS THAT NEED TO BE ASKED BEFORE WE TRY TO DO THE BIGGER STATEWIDE LEGISLATION.
BUT THEN, LIKE, KATHY, WHAT YOU'RE MENTIONING, WHAT CAN YOU DO LOCALLY? AND THAT WAS THE CHALLENGE.
BUT ARE THERE THINGS THAT CAN BE DONE SO YOU HAVE MORE FLEXIBILITY, BUT ALSO DON'T TAKE AWAY, YOU KNOW, SOME FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS OF, YOU KNOW, OWNERS OF THESE PROPERTIES HAVE TO HAVE TO DO IT IN A BALANCED WAY.
SO, OF COURSE, JIM, ONE THING THAT YOU ASKED A FEW MINUTES AGO WAS WHAT COULD WE DO? WHAT COULD YOU DO? SO BACK IN 20 18, 20 19, THERE WAS A COMMITTEE FORMED BY SENATOR KAVANAUGH AT THE TIME.
HE WAS, HE CHAIRED THAT COMMITTEE.
I, UH, SPOKE TWICE AT TWO OF THE MEETINGS, AND THEN IT WENT SILENT BECAUSE OF COVID.
AND THE INFORMATION THAT WE KNOW, OR EVEN I KNOW NOW IS NOTHING.
UH, WELL, IT WAS NOTHING THEN AS IT IS NOW.
WE'RE FAR AHEAD WITH THE PROBLEMS FROM BACK THEN.
SO I, I HAVE HEARD THAT FROM PEOPLE I'VE BEEN TALKING TO, SENATORS THAT I'VE BEEN TALKING TO AT THE CAPITOL THAT, UH, AND KAVANAUGH BEING ONE OF HAVING ANOTHER COMMITTEE HEARING TO GO OVER SOME OF THESE ISSUES, LIKE THE TAXING AND ALL THE OTHER ISSUES AND THE HOMELESSNESS PROBLEM, UH, WHICH THEY DIDN'T KNOW WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.
I DON'T KNOW HOW THEY WOULDN'T FIGURE IT OUT, BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW IT BACK THEN, BUT NOW IT'S ON THEIR OWN WEBSITE THAT THE HOMELESSNESS PROBLEM HAS INCREASED SADLY, SINCE 2017.
AND WE SHARED THAT INFORMATION WITH YOU.
BUT I'M HOPING THAT WE CAN HAVE ANOTHER COMMITTEE HEARING, MAYBE THAT WOULD HELP PUSH THOSE TWO LEGISLATORS TO SPEAK OF THE HOUSE AND PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE TO ACTUALLY OPEN THEIR, UH, THEIR MINDS AND, AND THINK BROADLY FOR THE NEXT SESSION.
I DON'T KNOW HOW IT'S GONNA HAPPEN, BUT THERE WAS DISCUSSION ABOUT IT.
AND WE, I VOLUNTEER WHATEVER AMOUNT OF TIME IS NEEDED TO HELP STAFF THE COMMITTEE OR WHATEVER.
SO WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT ALSO.
CONTINUE ON YOU, YOU DO HAVE A COUPLE MORE MINUTES IF NECESSARY.
OH, I, I, I, I THINK THAT'S IT FOR US.
UM, ANY, ANY FOLLOW, UH, FINAL QUESTIONS OR ANY WELL, I'D LIKE TO ADDITIONAL TO COMMENTS TO SEE THE PEER REVIEW OF THE S-V-V-A-R REPORT, PLEASE.
OH, SO I, I, I WAS SURPRISED ONLY BECAUSE OFTENTIMES WHEN THESE REPORTS ARE SO CONCLUSIVE, YOU CAN GO THROUGH AND IF I COULD HAVE A JOB WHERE I JUST DISSECTED OTHER REPORTS, UH, IT WOULD BE SO ENJOYABLE,
'CAUSE IT'S REALLY EASY TO TEAR STUFF DOWN.
UM, BUT THEY ACTUALLY DID A DECENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS.
I THINK THAT THEY RELIED A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH ON THE AIR DNA DATA.
UM, THE, THE CONCLUSIONS WERE A LITTLE BIT MORE FIRM THAN THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN.
AGAIN, ANYTIME YOU SEE SOMETHING THAT SAYS STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT, READ THAT AS MIGHT BE THE CASE, JUST WRITE THAT RIGHT OVER THE STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
'CAUSE IT, IT'S REALLY NOT BECAUSE YOU CAN'T MODEL CERTAIN THINGS.
I'VE DONE THIS ENOUGH WHERE YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT ALTERNATIVE TECHNIQUES TO THE ANALYSIS, BECAUSE THE ECONOMETRIC STUFF DOESN'T ALWAYS TELL YOU EVERYTHING.
BUT, UH, THE, THE ISSUE, UH, ONE AREA THAT WE, UH, DISAGREED WITH WAS THAT IT DIDN'T HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOME PRICES.
WHERE IT MIGHT NOT HAVE HAD AN IMPACT ON AFFORDABILITY FOR THE TYPICAL WORKER, BUT IT CLEARLY WOULD'VE HAD AN IMPACT ON PRICES.
IF YOU HAVE THE EXTRA DEMAND COMING IN, UM, THE, THE NUMBERS ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM THE STR, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT I ALREADY MADE A NOTE TO, UH, DOUBLE CHECK, UH, TO MAKE SURE THAT AT LEAST YOU HAVE THE PROPER PERSPECTIVE.
BECAUSE IF SOMETHING CHANGES, YOU WOULD LOSE THAT REVENUE.
AND IN SOME CASES, TO FIX A PROBLEM, YOU MIGHT NEED THAT REVENUE TO SPEND IN ANOTHER AREA.
BUT THAT, THAT, THAT'S JUST, YOU KNOW, SOMETHING THAT COULD BE LOOKED INTO MORE DETAIL LATER.
BUT I WASN'T AS DISAPPOINTED WITH IT AS I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO BE.
S WHEN, WHEN WE DO AN ANALYSIS, IT, WE NEVER PROMISE A CONCLUSION.
IF YOU DON'T SEE OUR REPORT, IT'S BECAUSE A CONCLUSION WASN'T WHAT THE CLIENT WANTED.
THIS, I DON'T WANNA SAY IT WAS BIAS, BUT IT DID SEEM VERY FAVORABLE TO, UH, THE STR MARKET.
AND I'M SOMEBODY THAT IS VERY, VERY COMFORTABLE BEING CRITICAL OF OTHERS WHEN THEY DO SOMETHING THAT'S BAD OR IS BIASED OR IS MISLEADING.
AND THEIR ANALYSIS, AGAIN, WASN'T THAT BAD.
[01:40:01]
SOME OF THE CONCLUSIONS WERE STRONGER THAN I WOULD'VE MADE.I'M TRYING TO BALANCE THIS ON, YOU'RE SAYING THAT THE CONCLUSIONS QUOTE WEREN'T THAT BAD, BUT THE WRITTEN REPORT THAT YOU GAVE US AS THE ECONOMETRIC RESULTS CANNOT BE CONSIDERED STATISTICALLY VALID.
SO, WHICH IS IT? SO WHEN YOU, WHEN YOU DO THE MODELING THAT THEY DID, THERE'S A, A LOT, THERE'S TOO MANY FACTORS.
WHEN THERE'S TOO MANY FACTORS, YOU CAN'T RELY ON THE STATISTICS.
SO WHEN THEY SAY WE'RE 89% CONFIDENT THAT THIS EXPLAINS THE ISSUE, AND THEREFORE THAT'S A STRONG ENOUGH NUMBER, THAT IT DOESN'T HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON PRICES, THAT 89% COULD BE 40, COULD BE 60, BUT THEM GOING THROUGH THE EXERCISE AT LEAST GIVES US SOME PERSPECTIVE THAT MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT IT MADE IT WHERE YOU CAN SAY, IT MAY HAVE NOT HAD AN IMPACT OR IT MAY HAVE HAD AN IMPACT.
SO EVERYWHERE THERE'S A SPECIFIC NUMBER, THAT NUMBER ISN'T AS MEANINGFUL AS LOOKING AT THE GENERAL DIRECTION.
SO I, I, I GUESS I'M, I'M, I'M TRYING TO THINK OF A SIMPLE WAY OF SAYING IT.
WHEN SOMETHING, WHEN, WHEN SOMEBODY IMPLIES SOMETHING IS STATISTICALLY VALID, THEY'RE SAYING THIS IS THE NUMBER, SORRY, BUT OUR MATH SHOWS, THIS IS THE NUMBER, THE REAL INTERPRETATION IS THERE'S A LOT OF COMPLEXITY IN THIS.
WE DID OUR BEST WITH THE MATH THAT CAME OUT WITH THIS NUMBER, BUT WE THINK IT'S KIND OF IN THIS RANGE.
THAT'S HOW YOU WOULD NORMALLY INTERPRET IT PROPERLY.
WILL YOUR, WILL, YOUR REVISE REPORT GO INTO FURTHER DETAIL ON THAT? BECAUSE WHAT YOU'VE JUST SAID IS NOT CAPTURED IN WHAT WAS PRESENTED TO US IN THE PACKET.
IF, IF YOU, IF YOU'D LIKE, WE'D ADD THAT, UM, WE, THAT WASN'T PART OF OUR INITIAL CHARGE, BUT BECAUSE IT WAS DISCUSSED, WE THREW IN SOME ADDITIONAL NARRATIVE FOR THAT PRETTY QUICKLY BEFORE, UM, WE HAD IT MEET AN INTERNAL DEADLINE.
SO GIVEN THAT THIS IS, I, WE DIDN'T EVEN REALIZE IT WAS, UH, UH, SOMETHING THAT YOU REALLY WANTED US TO LOOK INTO AS WELL.
SO OBVIOUSLY, IF IT'S NEEDED AND YOU'RE ASKING FOR IT, WE'LL THROW THAT IN.
SO WE'LL, WE'LL EXPLAIN THINGS AND GIVE SOME SPECIFIC EXAMPLES SO IT'S MORE CLEAR.
AND, UM, AGAIN, THIS IS AN AREA WHERE WE HAVE EXPERTISE, SO WE CAN GO THROUGH AND GIVE LOTS OF EXAMPLES AND EXPLAIN WHERE THE WORDING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT IN THAT REPORT.
AND ONE THING THAT COULD HELP US IS BECAUSE SINCE IT'S A POWERPOINT, IF YOU WANT TO SUBMIT WHAT SLIDES REALLY BOTHERED YOU THE MOST, IT WOULD HELP, I THINK IT'S LIKE 160 SLIDES.
UM, IF YOU, IF YOU WANNA IDENTIFY WHICH ONES LIKE JUST DIDN'T SEEM RIGHT, YOU KNOW, THE 5% VERSUS 35%, ANYTHING LIKE THAT, LET US KNOW AND WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT IT.
BUT I, I DID WANT TO DEFEND THAT THEY APPROACHED IT IN A WAY THAT WE WOULD'VE APPROACHED IT IN DOING THE TECHNICAL MATH.
WE JUST WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN AS CONCLUSIVE.
WE WOULDN'T HAVE USED AS STRONG OF WORDING IN WHAT THE RESULTS MEAN.
Y BRIAN HAS TO GO AND WE'RE GETTING SHORT ON TIME, SO, YEP.
JUST A QUICK QUESTION ABOUT THE REPORT AS WELL.
THANK YOU, KATHY, FOR BRINGING THAT UP.
ONE OF THE, BRIAN, EXCUSE ME, PETE.
UH, ACTUALLY, I WILL FOLLOW YOUR PROMPT, JIM, AND SEND YOU A PAGE NUMBER AND YOU CAN GREAT COMMENT ON WHAT I FOUND TROUBLING.
ONE QUESTION I HAD ABOUT THAT REPORT, UH, WHERE IT DID TOWARDS THE END, THEY TALKED ABOUT, THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT THE CONCENTRATION OF INVESTOR OWNED PROPERTIES, AND IT SEEMED TO ME THAT THEY DREW A CONCLUSION THAT SAID, THERE'S NOT A BIG CONCENTRATION OF SINGLE OWNERS BECAUSE THEY LOOKED AT LLC NAMES.
BUT YOU, YOU NEED, YOU WOULD REALLY NEED TO DIG DEEPER THAN JUST THAT BECAUSE OF COURSE, EVERY PROPERTY IS A SEPARATE LLC NAME.
AND, AND, AND I THINK YOUR, THE MAP, CAN WE, DO WE STILL HAVE TIME TO BRING THAT UP REAL QUICK OR NO, THAT SHOWS THE DISTRIBUTION ON THE PROPERTIES.
UH, IF, IF NOT, YOU CAN, UH, LOOK AT IT LATER, BUT I THOUGHT THAT WAS REALLY USEFUL.
AND THIS IS DATA THAT YOU ALL TRACK THAT MOST OF THE OTHER COMMUNITIES DON'T, AND THAT IS THIS THE NEW LIVE MAP? SO THIS CHANGES AS, AS, UH, THERESA ENTERS INFORMATION.
UM, I DON'T KNOW IF IT CHANGES AS SHE ENTERS INFORMATION, BUT I THINK ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS, OKAY.
HER INFORMATION IS MATCHED UP WITH OUR G IT'S NOT STATIC WHERE SHE HAS TO ACTUALLY GO PUT THE PINS IN.
NO, I, BUT, UM, I WOULD NOT SAY THAT IT'S LIKE EVERY DAY IT'S UPDATED.
LIKE EVERY MONTH OR SOMETHING THAT'S IS BASED ON, OKAY.
[01:45:01]
USE OF THE WORD CONCENTRATION WASN'T DENSITY.IT WAS, OH, HOW MANY OF OUR PROPERTIES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE OWNED BY A SINGLE INVESTOR ENTITY VERSUS, YOU KNOW, MOM AND POPS.
THEY STILL WOULD DO LLC, BUT THERE MIGHT BE AN OUTSIDE INVESTOR THAT CREATES DIFFERENT LLCS FOR EVERY SINGLE PROPERTY, BUT THE STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH IS SOME PERHAPS OUTSIDE INVESTOR.
SO I, IT LOOKED, TO ME THAT'S WHAT THE REPORT WAS SAYING.
I WAS CURIOUS WHETHER YOU SAW THAT OR NOT.
WE'LL, WE, I'LL LOOK INTO THAT TOO.
ALRIGHT, JIM, I APPRECIATE IT.
THANK YOU FOR THE, NICE TO MEET YOU.
LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU AGAIN.
[3.b. AB 3212 Discussion/possible direction regarding a tourism update including results of the winter marketing campaign, the summer marketing campaign plan, educational messaging strategies and destination management strategies.]
ALL RIGHT.DISCUSSION, POSSIBLE DIRECTION REGARDING THE TOURISM UPDATE, INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE WINTER MARKETING CAMPAIGN, THE SUMMER MARKETING CAMPAIGN PLAN, EDUCATIONAL MESSAGING STRATEGY, AND DESTINATION MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES.
GOOD AFTERNOON, MAYOR, VICE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCILORS.
TODAY WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT FOUR TOPICS.
FIRST IS THE RESULTS OF THE WINTER MARKETING CAMPAIGN.
SECOND IS THE SUMMER MARKETING CAMPAIGN STRATEGY.
THIRD IS THE ALWAYS ON, AS I'M CALLING IT EDUCATIONAL AD STRATEGY.
AND FOURTH IS THE DATA ANALYSIS WE'VE BEEN DOING TO UNDERSTAND THE TOURISM MANAGEMENT SIDE OF THINGS.
MORE SO TO JUMP INTO THE WINTER CAMPAIGN RESULTS.
AS A REMINDER, HERE'S SOME OF THE CREATIVE FROM THE WINTER CAMPAIGN THAT YOU'VE SEEN.
THIS WAS BASED ON THE THEME OF REDEFINED DESERT, A CAMPAIGN THAT WILL BE RUNNING FOR UP TO TWO YEARS.
SO THE ADS ON THE RIGHT HERE, THOSE WERE OUR TOP PERFORMING ADS FOR THE WINTER CAMPAIGN.
AND, UH, THESE WERE THE ADS THAT WE PLACED IN OUT OF MARKET.
AND IT WAS NICE TO SEE THAT BOTH SUSTAINABILITY AND FAMILY MESSAGES ARE RESONATING.
UM, AND THE IMAGERY WAS RESONATING WITH OUR AUDIENCE.
THE WINTER CAMPAIGN RAN FROM NOVEMBER 26TH TO FEBRUARY 28TH AND INCLUDED PAID SEARCH IN MARKET META ADS, THAT IS SEDONA WITH A 25 MILE RADIUS AND PHOENIX OUT OF MARKET META ADS.
THOSE WERE ATTRACTION BASED MESSAGING AND OUT OF MARKET ATTRI ATTRIBUTION BASED ADS ONLINE.
SO THIS TYPE OF ADVERTISING MEANS THAT WE SHOW PEOPLE ADS WHERE THEY LIVE, AND THEN WE TRACK IF THEY END UP IN OUR MARKET AND FOR HOW LONG? SO THIS IS NOT AN EXTRAPOLATION, IT'S AN EXACT ONE-TO-ONE TRACKING OF HOW MANY DEVICES ENDED UP IN OUR MARKET.
THESE ATTRIBUTION ADS ARE WHAT THE RETURN ON AD SPEND AND THE ROI IS CALCULATED FROM THAT YOU'LL BE SEEING IN A MINUTE.
OUR OUT OUT OF MARKET ADS WENT TO PHOENIX, LA TUCSON, SAN FRANCISCO, VEGAS, SAN DIEGO, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, DENVER, AND MINNEAPOLIS.
THE KEY TAKEAWAYS ARE THAT WE HAD 88,000 USERS SCENIC SEDONA FROM THE ATTRIBUTION ADS THAT WAS COMPARED TO 12,000 IN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN.
THE META IN MARKET CAMPAIGNS BROUGHT IN ABOUT 24,000 ADDITIONAL USERS TO THE WEBSITE.
ALL BUT ONE AVERAGE INDUSTRY BENCHMARK WAS MET IN THE MARKETING KPIS.
I'LL GET INTO THE ONE THAT WE DIDN'T MEET A LITTLE BIT LATER.
THE SEARCH CLICK THROUGH RATE WAS 29% OVER THE BENCHMARK.
THE META OUT OF MARKET CLICK THROUGH RATE WAS 286% OVER THE BENCHMARK.
SO TO ME, THAT SAYS THAT OUR ATTRACTION MESSAGING DID REALLY WELL.
UM, OUR ADVERTISING, OUR IMAGERY, UM, OBVIOUSLY GOT THE CLICKS THAT WE WANTED.
THE WEB AD CLICK THROUGH RATE WAS 5% OVER THE BENCHMARK.
AND THEN LET'S GET INTO THE RETURN ON AD SPEND.
SO ATTRIBUTION KPIS THAT WE ARE, THE ATTRIBUTION KPIS THAT WE SAW WERE A TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF $4,556,351 IN HOTEL AND DESTINATION SPEND, WHICH IS A 67 TO
[01:50:01]
ONE RETURN ON AD SPEND OR ROES THAT'S CALCULATED WITH AN A DR OF $321 AND $190 A DAY IN VISITOR SPEND.SO, AS A REMINDER, ROAS IS THE CAMPAIGN REVENUE, THAT'S THE DESTINATION PLUS THE HOTEL SALES DIVIDED BY THE CAMPAIGN COST.
WHEREAS ROI, THAT I'M GONNA SHOW YOU IN A MINUTE, SUBTRACTS OUT THAT CAMPAIGN COST.
SO IT TAKES THE CAMPAIGN REVENUE, YOU MINUS THE CAMPAIGN COST, AND THEN YOU DIVIDE BY THE CAMPAIGN COST.
SO OVERALL, WE'RE HAPPY WITH THE ROAS, BUT, UM, IN A MINUTE I'LL TOUCH ON A FEW REASONS AT LEAST THAT I'VE THOUGHT OF, UH, OF WHY IT WAS A LITTLE BIT LESS IN THE SUMMER OR IN THE WINTER COMPARED TO THE SUMMER.
AND THEN ADDITIONALLY, AS YOU SAW IN THE STAFF REPORT FOR WHAT WE SPENT IN ADS, UM, SOMETHING THAT I ALWAYS LOOK FOR IS THE MONEY THAT WE SPENT IN ADS.
DID WE AT LEAST MAKE THAT BACK IN SALES AND BED TAX REVENUE, UM, TO THE CITY? THE ANSWER WAS YES ON A 3.3 TO ONE BASIS.
SO HERE'S A SNAPSHOT OF HOW THE META CAMPAIGN DID WITH BOTH THE IN MARKET AND OUT OF MARKET ADS.
THERE WERE OVER THREE AND A HALF MILLION IMPRESSIONS.
THAT'S COMPARED TO 2.7 OVER THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN FROM LAST YEAR.
WE HAD 1.8, ALMOST 1.9 VIDEO VIEWS BETWEEN THE TWO.
UM, THAT'S ATTRACTION AND STEWARDSHIP VIDEOS.
THAT'S COMPARED TO 1.1 MILLION VIEWS FROM THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN.
SO THAT WAS UP AND OVER A HUNDRED THOUSAND CLICKS.
SOMETHING THAT I LIKE, ESPECIALLY IN THIS, IS THAT YOU CAN SEE THAT OUR IN MARKET STEWARDSHIP ADS ON META, UH, WE GOT MORE VIDEO VIEWS, UH, FOR OUR STEWARDSHIP ADS THAN WE DID EVEN FOR OUR OUT OF MARKET ATTRACTION ADS.
SO THAT'S NICE TO SEE A FEW ALL THE QUESTIONS AS YOU GO OR HOW DO YOU WANNA HANDLE THEM.
IT MIGHT BE COVERED LATER, BUT I'M, I'M HAPPY TO TAKE QUESTIONS AS WE GO TOO.
I LOVE THAT WE CAN TRACK, YOU KNOW, SOMEBODY LOOKING AT THE AD AND THEN THEY'RE IN MARKET.
THAT'S FANTASTIC, BUT HOW DO WE KNOW THEY WEREN'T, WEREN'T COMING HERE ANYWAY? I DON'T, I DON'T WANNA OVERSELL OUR ABILITY TO, UH, TO HIT BOOK.
I WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT IT'S PART OF THE MARKETING CYCLE THAT THEY'RE, UM, PRESENTED WITH.
YOU KNOW, THEY MAY HAVE HEARD ABOUT IT FROM A FRIEND, THEY MAY HAVE SEEN AN IMAGE ON FACEBOOK, THEY MAY HAVE READ IT SOMEWHERE IN AN ARTICLE, AND THEN OUR ADS POP UP 2, 3, 4, 5 TIMES IN FRONT OF THEM AND FINALLY THEY CLICK BOOK.
BUT I THINK THAT WE'RE, WE'RE PART OF THAT LIFECYCLE.
AND I ALSO THINK THAT, UM, A OF A PORTION OF THE GOAL OF THE ADS IS ALSO TO PUT OUR MESSAGING IN FRONT OF FOLKS.
SO ESPECIALLY OUR STEWARDSHIP AND SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGING, UM, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT, UH, EVEN IF IT DIDN'T MAKE THEM CLICK BOOK, UM, AT LEAST THEY'RE NOW, IF NOT DIRECTLY, THEN SUBLIMINALLY THINKING ABOUT TAKING THE SHUTTLE WHEN THEY GET HERE.
UM, LAST TIME THAT YOU GUYS WERE WITH US, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE, UH, KIOSKS YES.
RIGHT FROM THE VISITOR CENTER.
DO YOU ENVISION HAVING, UH, LINKAGE FROM HERE TO THE KIOSK CONTENT? YES.
UM, WE WERE JUST GOING THROUGH A DEMO YESTERDAY, UM, TO PUT, UH, ENGAGING CONTENT ON EACH OF THE, YOU KNOW, UM, MODULES THAT YOU'RE WORKING THROUGH.
AND OUR, UH, VIDEOS AND IMAGERY IS GONNA BE ALL OVER THAT THING.
WE'LL ALSO BE BRANDING THE KIOSKS WITH OUR BRANDING.
SO WITH THE ATTRIBUTION ADS FOR HOW MANY PEOPLE ENDED UP IN MARKET, YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE WERE 15,000 DAYS FROM VISITORS IN THIS CAMPAIGN THAT ENDED UP HERE FROM 8,845 TRIPS WITH AN AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY OF 1.7 DAYS.
THAT 1.7 DAYS IS THE SAME AS THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN, BUT THE, UM, THE TRIPS HERE AND THE AMOUNT OF VISITORS WAS A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN.
I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS ON THAT IN A MINUTE.
SO WITH THE FACT THAT WE KNOW THAT VISITORS ON AVERAGE SPEND ABOUT $190 A DAY, WE SAW A, UH, $2.8 MILLION ECONOMIC IMPACT
[01:55:01]
FROM THE CAMPAIGN.THE HIGHEST ORIGIN MARKETS ARE FROM PHOENIX, FOLLOWED BY LA TUCSON, VEGAS, AND SAN DIEGO.
DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW THE VISITOR DAYS MORE PERHAPS LENGTH VISIT AND THE, UH, IMPACT COMPARED TO THE CIF WEEK OR THE BIKE FESTIVAL OR OTHER EVENT DRIVEN THINGS THAT PULL PEOPLE INTO TOWN? UM, OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD, I CAN SAY THAT THE MOUNTAIN BIKE FEST, UM, THAT THOSE ATTENDEES STAY LONGER THAN 1.9 DAYS, 1.7, 1.7 DAYS, JUST BECAUSE THE EVENT IS THREE DAYS.
AND I IMAGINE THAT SCF IS PROBABLY HIGHER TOO, BUT S C'S VISITATION IS IN THIS DATA, WHEREAS THE MOUNTAIN BIKE FESTIVAL ISN'T.
THE HOTEL STAYS, IT RESULTED IN 5,448 NIGHTS AND 2,854 TRIPS TO HOTELS WITH AN AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY OF 1.9 DAYS.
THAT'S SLIGHTLY UP FROM THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN.
THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN WAS 1.8 DAYS, UH, WITH AN AVERAGE A DR OF 321 DAY $321, THAT ADDED UP TO $1,000,748.
WHY CAN'T I GET THAT RIGHT? $1,748,808 IN ECONOMIC IMPACT TO, TO THE HOTELS.
UM, THE TOP ORIGIN MARKETS MIRROR THE DESTINATION ATTRIBUTION RESULTS.
SO THE SAME PEOPLE WHO ARE COMING HERE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT WE'RE SEEING STAYING IN THE HOTELS.
LAUREN, WHEN WE CHATTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, I HAD ASKED ABOUT HOTELS AND HOW THAT'S DEFINED HERE.
AND THAT IS TRADITIONAL LODGING IN THE FORM OF HOTELS.
DOES IT ALSO INCLUDE TIMESHARES OR NO? DID YOU GUYS GEOFENCE FOR TIMESHARES? IT INCLUDES BED AND BREAKFASTS AS WELL, BUT NOT THE TIMESHARES.
AND YOU NOW HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENTS IN PLACE OR COMING IN PLACE THAT'S GOING TO, I ASSUME THEN ADD IN TIMESHARES, BUT ALSO MORE IMPORTANTLY, SHORT TERM RENTALS.
UM, THROUGH THE SAME PROCESS OF TAKING THE LICENSE ADDRESSES THAT YOU SAW USED ON THE GIS MAP, UM, WE'RE ABLE TO UPLOAD THAT DATA SET INTO DATA FILE, WHICH IS THE PROVIDER THAT WE USE TO DO THIS WITH.
THEY'RE IN THE PROCESS OF UPLOADING THE SHORT-TERM RENTAL ADDRESSES INTO ITS OWN LAYER.
UM, WE'LL KIND OF GET TO IT LATER WHEN I TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOME OF THE ENHANCEMENTS TO SHORT-TERM RENTALS.
BUT WE CAN RUN AN A DR ANALYSIS FOR THAT DATA SET IN THE SAME WAY THAT WE DID FOR THE HOTELS USING SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH.
SO, SO WHEN WE DO THESE CALCULATIONS FOR CAMPAIGNS IN THE FUTURE, THE ANTICIPATED ROAS WILL GO UP SUBSTANTIALLY BECAUSE WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO PULL IN MORE OF THE ACTUAL LODGING CHOICES THAT VISITORS MADE THAT DID ACT UPON THE ADS THAT THEY SAW.
IT WILL ALSO BE FASCINATING TO SEE THE BREAKDOWN OF, WE'VE SEEN IT A HUNDRED PERCENT HOTELS AND WHAT THAT NUMBER IS AND WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE PUT A GEOFENCE AROUND EVERY SINGLE STR THAT WE KNOW IS LICENSED.
DOES IT DOUBLE? DOES IT GO UP BY 50%? DOES IT GO UP BY A HUNDRED? YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT IS THAT NUMBER? IT'S GONNA BE REALLY INTERESTING AND WE'RE LOOKING FORWARD TO SEEING THAT RESULT.
WE HOPE TO HAVE THAT IN PLACE BY, FOR THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN THAT WE'RE LAUNCHING, BUT WE DON'T HAVE IT FOR THE DATA THAT WE DID FOR THE WINTER.
AND THEN WE'RE COMMITTED TO, I WAS CHATTING WITH THAT I ABOUT THIS BECAUSE WE'RE GONNA RUN THESE TWICE A YEAR.
WE WOULD UPDATE THAT SHORT TERM RENTAL LAYER WITH THE MOST RECENT ADDRESS REPORT FROM THERESA.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THE YELLOW ARE THE DRIVE MARKETS AND THE ORANGE ARE THE FLIGHT MARKETS.
AND THIS IS BASED ON HOW MANY PEOPLE FROM EACH OF THESE LOCATIONS ENDED UP IN SEDONA.
SO I KNOW I JUST SAID THIS, BUT JUST AS A REMINDER, ROI IS THAT HOTEL IMPACT THAT I JUST WENT OVER, PLUS THE DESTINATION IMPACT MINUS OUT THAT AD SPEND AND DIVIDE BY THE AD SPEND.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT UNDERSTANDABLY, OUR CLOSEST IN MARKETS ARE GETTING THE BIGGEST ROI, WHICH IS DRIVING UP OUR ROAS AS WELL, BUT EVEN OUR FURTHEST MARKETS GAVE US A POSITIVE RETURN ON INVESTMENT.
AND I'LL GO INTO THAT IN A LITTLE BIT AS WELL.
LAUREN, I THINK IT'S INTERESTING TO SEE THAT PHOENIX YET AGAIN IS AT THE TOP OF THAT LIST.
AND IN A MINUTE I'LL EXPLAIN HOW THAT EVEN, UM,
[02:00:01]
IN MY OPINION, AFFECTED OUR ROAS COMPARED TO THE SUMMER BECAUSE WE SPENT WAY MORE, UM, IN THIS CAMPAIGN THAN WE DID IN LAST SUMMER.SO THE ROI FOR PHOENIX IN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN WAS EVEN HIGHER BECAUSE WE SPENT LESS MONEY IN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN COMPARED TO THIS, BUT OKAY.
THIS SHOWS OUR EFFORTS TO GET PEOPLE TO LAND ON OUR WEBSITE USING THEIR SEARCH ENGINES.
SO WHILE WE HAD A HIGH NUMBER IMPRESSION OF IMPRESSIONS, OUR CLICK THROUGH RATE WAS 2.9%, AND OUR COST PER CLICK WAS 45 CENTS.
WITH THE CLICK THROUGH RATE BENEATH THE BENCHMARK.
SO THAT WAS THE ONE BENCHMARK THAT WE DID NOT MEET.
HOWEVER, WE'RE ACTIVELY WORKING ON THIS SPECIFICALLY, WE'RE HONING IN ON WHAT WORDS AND PHRASES DO BETTER THAN OTHERS AND HOW TO ADJUST THAT AD COPY, UM, TO MAKE SURE THAT IT'S HITTING THE TARGET AUDIENCE.
AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING POSITIVE RESULTS FROM THAT.
SO WHAT'S THE SOURCE OF YOUR BENCHMARKS? YOU KILLED THE OTHER ONES.
THEY'RE ALL A TOURISM MARKETING BENCHMARK.
CAN I BACK YOU UP A SECOND? UM, MY MIND'S WORKING ON THIS SINCE YOU SAID IT ABOUT THE ROIS.
BUT THE ROI FROM PHOENIX, HIGHER IN THE SUMMER BECAUSE LESS MONEY WAS SPENT.
BUT THE VISITORSHIP FROM THERE WAS THE VISITORSHIP UP OR DOWN.
SO SOME OVERARCHING THINGS THAT WE LEARNED WAS THAT THE SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGE MESSAGING IS STILL RESONATING.
THIS IS A CORE TENANT OF, OF WHAT WE'RE DOING WITH THIS PROGRAM.
AND SO IT'S NICE TO SEE THAT IT'S WORKING AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO USE THAT.
SO WE HAD LESS ROAS IN THE WINTER COMPARED TO THE SUMMER, IN MY OPINION.
THIS IS WHY WE SPENT MORE ON THE CAMPAIGN IN THE SUMMER.
WE SPENT 80 K COMPARED TO THE WINTER.
WE SPENT MORE, MORE MONEY IN PHOENIX IN THE WINTER, 8,000 COMPARED TO 1500 IN THE SUMMER, AND SAW THAT THAT MARKET STAYED LESS IN HOTELS IN THE WINTER COMPARED TO THE SUMMER.
THIS IS SOMETHING I'LL BE WATCHING IN FUTURE D DOES THE PHOENIX MARKET STAY HERE MORE OFTEN IN THIS, IN THE SUMMER THAN THEY DO IN THE WINTER? I CAN CERTAINLY FOLLOW THE LOGIC IN THAT, RIGHT.
UM, BUT SOMETHING I'M QUEUING INTO, UH, WITH THE NEXT CAMPAIGN.
THE CAMPAIGN RAN FOR EIGHT DAYS LESS IN THE WINTER THAN IT DID IN THE SUMMER.
AND THEN A DR WAS HIGHER IN THE WINTER, BUT WE HAD MORE PEOPLE WHO SAW OUR ADS IN THE SUMMER WHO STAYED IN HOTELS.
SO TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, YES, LESS PEOPLE FROM PHOENIX CAME IN THE WINTER THAN THEY DID IN THE SUMMER WHO SAW OUR ADS.
YEAH, I SAW 'EM CONSTANTLY POP UP.
LAUREN, CAN I JUST ASK A QUESTION ABOUT YOUR FIRST BULLET? THE MESSAGE IS RESONATING.
I DON'T DOUBT THAT IT RESONATES, BUT WE DON'T HAVE A COMPARISON TO ANOTHER MESSAGE WITH PRETTY PICTURES IN THE BACKGROUND.
SO WE REALLY DO WE REALLY KNOW IT'S THE SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGE? IS IT PRETTY PICTURES OF SEDONA? I DO HAVE A COMP ON THAT.
I'M NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO PULL IT UP RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW, BUT I CAN FOLLOW UP WITH YOU.
I CAN GIVE YOU THE CLICK THROUGH RATE ON OUR NON-SUSTAINABILITY.
SO WHAT I WOULD CALL THE, WHAT YOU SAID, THE PRETTY PICTURE AD VERSUS THE AD OF THE RANGER WITH THE WHITE HAT OR THE AD OF THE SHUTTLE BUS OR WHATNOT.
I CAN GET YOU THAT CLICK THROUGH RATE AND, AND COMPARE THAT.
UH, NOW THAT WE'VE, WE'VE DONE NOW TWO WINTER, A TWO WINTER CAMPAIGNS AND A SUMMER CAMPAIGN.
I'M STARTING TO, TO START TO UNDERSTAND THE STORY THAT I WANNA TELL ABOUT THIS, BUT, UM, I SAW THAT DENVER WAS A STRONG MARKET IN THE WINTER COMPARED TO CHICAGO IN THE SUMMER, SO THAT'S INTERESTING.
AND THEN WE'LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON THAT PAID SEARCH STRATEGY TO MAKE SURE THAT WE GET IT ABOVE THE BENCHMARK.
SO THIS LEADS ME TO SOME BOOKING WINDOW CONSIDERATIONS NOW THAT WE'RE A FEW CAMPAIGNS IN.
WE'VE TAKEN A LOOK AT THE BOOKING WINDOW DATA, AND AS YOU CAN SEE, SHORT-TERM RENTALS ARE
[02:05:01]
HANGING AROUND THE SIX TO SEVEN WEEK MARK.AND FOR HOTELS, THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE ARE BOOKING OUT FOUR WEEKS OR LONGER.
THIS LEADS ME TO FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS.
FIRST IS THAT WE'RE THINKING OF PUTTING A SPENDING CAP ON NEW YORK, MINNEAPOLIS, AND SEATTLE BECAUSE THEY CAN EAT UP A LOT OF THE ADVERTISING BUDGET JUST BECAUSE OF HOW BIG THE CITIES ARE AND HOW MANY OF OUR TARGET AUDIENCE IS IDENTIFIED THERE.
BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO STAY IN THOSE MARKETS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WINTER.
BUT JUST PUT A CAP ON THEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT IT TAKES LONGER FOR PEOPLE TO BOOK TRIPS THE FURTHER AWAY THAT YOU LIVE TO INCREASE THE ROI IN THOSE LONGER FLIGHT MARKETS, STARTING IN THE WINTER OF 2025 IN THAT MARKETING CAMPAIGN, WE'RE LOOKING TO STAGGER THE CAMPAIGN FLIGHTS TO START THOSE FLIGHT FURTHER FLIGHT MARKETS FOUR TO SIX WEEKS BEFORE THE DRIVE MARKETS.
KNOWING THAT THIS WOULD PUSH THE ADVERTISING TIMELINE INTO STARTING IN OCTOBER, I KNOW THAT THIS HAS BEEN A, A POLITICAL CONVERSATION THAT YOU ALL HAVE HAD.
AND WHAT I'M HOPING IS THAT NOW THAT WE HAVE THE DATA THAT SHOWS THE BOOKING TIMELINE, THE BOOKING WINDOWS, THAT IT GIVES YOU ALL THE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FLIGHT MARKETS, NOT THE DRIVE MARKETS, BUT TO ADVERTISE IN OCTOBER, KNOWING THAT IT TAKES THEM FOUR TO SIX WEEKS TO SHOW UP IN NOVEMBER WHEN WE WANT THEM TO BE HERE.
I THINK TOO, YOU KNOW, WHEN I'M DOING THAT ATTRIBUTION, WHEN I, I HAVE TO CUT IT OFF AT SOME POINT, SO I CUT IT OFF AT THE END OF THE CAMPAIGN, WHICH WOULD'VE BEEN FEBRUARY 28TH.
NOW IS THAT TO SAY THAT A PERSON IN CHICAGO DIDN'T END UP COMING HERE IN MARCH OR APRIL, BUT I DIDN'T COUNT IT AS MY ATTRIBUTION? ABSOLUTELY.
SO MY THOUGHT IS IF I STAGGER THAT CAMPAIGN FLIGHT AND I RUN THE ADS EARLIER, I CAN TRACK THE ATTRIBUTION MORE ACCURATELY AND GET THEM HERE WHEN I WANT THEM, RATHER THAN BRINGING THEM HERE IN HIGH SEASON.
SO WHEN WE TOOK THIS TO THE TAB LAST WEEK, THEY SUPPORTED THESE IDEAS.
WE'RE LOOKING TO SEE IF CITY COUNCIL IS SUPPORTIVE OF THESE IDEAS AND ALSO CAN ANSWER ANY OTHER QUESTIONS THAT YOU HAVE ON THE CAMPAIGN RESULTS, UM, UP TO YOU.
BUT I CAN EITHER GO THROUGH THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY AND THE ALWAYS, UH, I THINK, I THINK I'D RATHER BREAK IT UP IF IT'S OKAY WITH YOU ALL.
I'D LIKE TO GET FEEDBACK AT THIS POINT, AND THEN I CAN CONTINUE ON WITH EVERYTHING ELSE.
THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR.
ANY COMMENT, KATHY? YEAH, I, I, I SUPPORT YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS.
I MEAN, I'M VERY IMPRESSED WITH THE INFORMATION THAT YOU'VE GATHERED AND HOW YOU'VE BEEN ABLE TO PUT IT TOGETHER AND DRAW THE LINKS.
I THINK YOU'RE PUTTING EXCELLENT THOUGHT INTO THIS AND YEAH, I SUPPORT THAT.
I MEAN, I THINK NO DOUBT, IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR AN ANSWER TO THE QUESTION ON A ROW AS OR SCIENTIFIC BASIS, THEN THE ANSWER IS YES, YOU'RE DOING THE RIGHT STUFF.
THE ANSWER THE POLITICAL QUESTION, WHICH YOU ALLUDED TO, REALLY DEPENDS ON ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS ABOUT ARE WE INCREASING THE NUMBER OF VISITORS COMPARED TO IF WE WERE, WERE NOT, UH, ADVERTISING AND OR ARE WE DISPLACING, ARE WE BRINGING MORE SUSTAINABILITY MINDED TOURISTS AND DISPLACING OTHERS? SO THAT, THAT WOULD REALLY HELP ANSWER THE, A POLITICAL QUESTION.
BUT THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT, YOU KNOW, THE WORK THAT YOU'RE DOING IS FROM A ROAS PERSPECTIVE.
SO DO YOU, DO YOU SUPPORT THE, THE THOUGHT OF HAVING A STA STAGGERED CAMPAIGN FLIGHT OF ADVERTISING IN THOSE LONGER FLIGHT MARKETS IN OCTOBER? OR IS THAT NOT SOMETHING YOU WANNA TAKE ON? WELL, I THINK YES, IF WE'RE LOOKING FOR ROW ADS, SURE.
I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU'RE SAYING.
NOW, I'M, I'M LOOKING, YOU KNOW, AS WE CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THIS, WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS ABOUT ARE WE DIS, ARE WE, NOT ONLY ARE WE DRAWING THE KIND OF VISITOR THAT WE WANT, BUT ARE THEY DISPLACING VISITORS THAT WE'RE LESS BENEFICIAL TO THE COMMUNITY? AND WHAT IS THE RATE OF GROWTH OVERALL IN TOURISM VISITATION? MM-HMM
I DON'T KNOW HOW TO GET TO THOSE ANSWERS.
I GUESS THE THING THAT I'M THINKING OF RIGHT, IS THAT, YOU KNOW, I FEEL LIKE WE'RE REALLY BEING ASKED, AND I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE ASK RIGHT? TO DRIVE DEMAND DURING THE SUMMER AND THE WINTER.
UM, AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, PART OF THE WAY I LOOK AT THE STAGGERING FLIGHTS IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE SEEING THE BOOKING WINDOWS NOT LINE UP WITH THE STRATEGY OF EXECUTION TO DRIVE DEMAND DURING THE TIMES THAT WE'RE BEING ASKED TO DO.
UM, I LOVE THE KIND OF FOLLOW UPS ON LIKE, WHAT ARE THE BIGGER PICTURE THINGS OF, ARE WE DISPLACING, ARE WE INCREASING OVERALL VISITATION? I THINK, YOU KNOW, WE WOULD NEED TO KIND OF LOOK BACKWARDS AT THAT TO SOME EXTENT TO KIND OF KNOW TRULY WHAT THAT IMPACT WAS.
I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS THAT ARE OUTSIDE OF OUR CONTROL
[02:10:01]
THAT CAN INFLUENCE MACRO VISITATION TO SEDONA, BUT THE THING I LOOK AT WITH STAGGERING IS WE HAVE A MANDATE TO DRIVE DEMAND DURING A CERTAIN PERIOD OF TIME, AND I DON'T KNOW IF THE APPROACH THAT WE'RE DOING IS THE BEST APPROACH TO REACH THAT MANDATE.YEAH, I, I HEAR, I HEAR WHAT YOU'RE SAYING AND, AND I UNDERSTAND HOW, YOU KNOW, YOU GOT, AND WE DROVE YOU TO, TO DRIVE TO THOSE MANDATES, ALTHOUGH I REALLY DON'T THINK THIS COUNCIL HAS HAD A CONVERSATION ABOUT ARE WE REALLY LOOKING TO FLATTEN DEMAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE YEAR? RIGHT.
AND, AND THERE'S A, AGAIN, A POLITICAL CONVERSATION ABOUT IS THERE A BENEFIT TO OUR COMMUNITY TO SLOW TIMES AND NOT SLOW TIMES, IS THAT, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE IMPLICIT BENEFIT OF LIVING IN A TOURISM DRIVEN ECONOMY, THAT THERE ARE BUSY TIMES AND THEN THERE ARE TIMES FOR THE RESIDENTS.
AND THINKING OF THE BUSINESSES STAFFING DURING THE SLOW TIMES IS SO CHALLENGING IF YOU'RE PREPARE WHEN YOU'RE PREPARING FOR A TIDAL WAVE AND YOU'RE DEAD AND, AND YOU'VE GOTTA FIGURE OUT HOW TO FIX THAT AND, AND STAFF UP.
SO PART OF PART OF OUR MISSION IS THAT HOW CAN WE HELP BUSINESSES WITH THAT CHALLENGE? RIGHT? YEAH.
AND I TOTALLY GET THAT AND COMPLETELY UNDERSTAND IT AND, AND AGREE, BUT THERE'S THEN ANOTHER LEVEL OF CONVERSATION ABOUT THE COMMUNITY, NOT JUST AGREED.
AND I ALSO JUST WANNA SAY THAT I DO NOT FEEL LIKE THE MANDATE IS TO FLATTEN VISITATION THROUGHOUT THE YEAR EITHER.
I THINK IT'S DEFINITELY JUST TRYING TO DRIVE DEMAND DURING THOSE LOWER SEASONS WHERE THERE'S LESS OF A GUARANTEE OF REVENUE THAT WOULD IMPLY THAT YOU HAVE A GOAL IN MIND AND YOU'RE WORKING TOWARDS IT.
UM, THE STAGGERING CAMPAIGN FLIGHTS TOTALLY MAKE SENSE.
UM, LOOKING AT THE ROI CHART THOUGH, LIKE, WHY, WHY DO WE CARE TO CONTINUE TO SPEND ON NEW YORK, MINNEAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, EVEN CHICAGO.
I MEAN, THOSE ARE POOR R OIS COMPARED TO THE OTHERS.
SO IF WE'RE REALLY SEEKING TO DRIVE MAXIMUM RETURN ON OUR SPEND, WHY, WHY SPEND ANYTHING ON THOSE? WHAT I WOULD ASK IS, AND I'M GONNA GET INTO THIS IN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN PITCH, IF WE CAN'T INCREASE THOSE ROIS WITH THE CTV ADS THAT I'M SUGGESTING IN THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN, THEN I'D LIKE TO HAVE THAT CONVERSATION.
BUT I'D LIKE TO HAVE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE IF PLACING CTV ADS AND DOING STAGGERED CAMPAIGN CAMPAIGN FLIGHTS CHANGES THE ROI AND THEREFORE MIGHT CHANGE OUR FUTURE DECISION MAKING.
WOULD YOU PUT ALL YOUR BETS ON CTV ON ONE OF THOSE THREE MARKETS? MM-HMM
AS OPPOSED TO SPREADING THEM ACROSS THE THREE, YOU'RE GONNA DO CTV ACROSS ALL CORRECT? OR ONLY THE ONES THAT ARE UNDERPERFORMING? NO, ON ALL.
SO BOTTOM LINE IS I'D SUPPORT YOU SAYING, HEY, HAVE ANOTHER RUN AT IT BEFORE STARTING TO CALL.
LIKE, YEAH, WE'RE, WE'RE ONLY TALKING TWO YEARS, UH, THAT WE'LL BE AT.
SO I GET THAT, BUT JUST LONGER TERM, LIKE WE DON'T THINK WE'VE TAPPED OUT THE POTENTIAL OF THOSE TOP PERFORMING MARKETS, SO WHY SPEND ON UNDERPERFORMING IF WE CAN'T MOVE THEM UP? MM-HMM
SO LAUREN WOULDN'T THOSE, ISN'T IT UNDERSTOOD THAT THE NEW YORK MARKET, WHO I, I'VE BEEN INTERESTED IN TOUCHING ON FOR YEARS, BUT BECAUSE IT'S IT'S FURTHER AWAY MAY BE POSSIBLY HIGHER COST OF AIR FLIGHT, AND IT'S NOT SUCH A QUICK TURNAROUND LIKE YOU WOULD SEE FOR PHOENIX LA OR ANY OF THE EVEN LAS VEGAS.
IT'S JUST, IT'S A QUICK TURNAROUND, RIGHT? SO COULD THAT BE A HINDRANCE FOR PEOPLE COMING HERE FROM NEW YORK? I, I SEE IT THE OPPOSITE WAY, WHICH IS THAT IF YOU'RE GONNA COME FROM NEW YORK, YOU STAY ALONE.
YOU'RE GONNA COME FROM NEW YORK AND YOU ARE GONNA STAY AND YOU'RE GONNA EITHER HOME BASE OUTTA HERE AND GO TO THE GRAND CANYON AND GLEN CANYON AND ALL THAT SORT OF STUFF.
UM, OR YOU'RE GONNA, YOU KNOW, SPEND THE FULL THREE TO FIVE DAYS HERE IN YOUR LONG ARIZONA TRIP.
SO I CAN DO SOME MORE DIGGING ON NEW YORK SPECIFICALLY AND, AND ALL OF THE NO FLIGHT MARKETS.
DON'T, YOU'VE GOT ENOUGH ON YOUR PLATE AS IT IS.
[02:15:01]
REALLY IMPRESSED BY THE RESULTS OF JUST THIS PAST YEAR.DID YOU TOUCH ON AT ALL WHERE EUROPE FALLS IN THIS, YOUR EUROPEAN MARKETS, BECAUSE YOU WERE STILL, DO WE HAVE NUMBERS AND WE HAVEN'T DONE THE CAMPAIGN THERE, BUT DO WE, DO YOU HAVE THE NUMBERS JUST TO KNOW WHERE IT'S A LOT HARDER WITH THEIR PRIVACY RULES AROUND THEIR CELL PHONES? YEAH, SO THIS IS A DOMESTIC DESTINATION MARKETING CAMPAIGN.
JUST WITH THE WAY THAT IT GETS SERVED UP AND THE WAY THAT WE TARGET FOLKS, UM, THERE'S VERY LITTLE GEOLOCATION CAPTURE OUTSIDE OF THE US BECAUSE THAT STUFF IS HAPPENING THROUGH A OT, RIGHT? YEAH, EXACTLY.
SO, AND WE DON'T HAVE THAT ACCESS TO THOSE, THE RESULTS OF THAT I HAVE, I'M FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE INTERNATIONAL DATA TIED TO THE PHOENIX METRO.
THEY'RE LOCATED IN AN INTER, LIKE RIGHT NEAR AN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
YOU SEE THE ON CLAIMANTS AND DEAN CLAIMANTS, THEY LOOK A LOT AT CREDIT CARD SPEND OUR DISTANCE FROM AN AIRPORT MAKES IT REALLY TOUGH TO KNOW HOW PEOPLE ARE COMING IN.
SO WE CAN MAKE ASSUMPTIONS, BUT I, I HAVE NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE DATA THAT WE HAVE ACCESS TO.
SO LAUREN OR ANDREW, DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW YOUR MESSAGING IS BEING ABSORBED FOR THE SUSTAINABILITY PORTION? COME FOR THE CITY OR COME FOR THE, THE STARS OR WHATEVER IT WAS? I FORGET THE, THE WORDING, BUT THE MESSAGING IS FABULOUS.
AND I DO SEE THEM ON, UH, YOUTUBE VIDEOS MM-HMM
AT NIGHTTIME, IF I WANNA JUST CHILL OUT.
BUT DO WE, I MEAN, I'M STILL SEEING, AND YOU, IT'S HARD TO CONTROL THE GRAFFITI ON THE RED ROCKS.
THERE, THERE WAS JUST SOMETHING MASSIVE, UH, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, UH, WAS PRETTY BLATANT.
YOU DON'T KNOW WHERE THEY'RE COMING FROM AND YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW IT COULD BEEN A LOCAL PERSON, BUT YOU HAVE ANY KIND OF GUIDE ON IF THAT'S BEING SUCCESSFUL, IF WE'RE HELPING IN SOME WAY TO CUT BACK ON SOME OF THAT STUFF, GO FOR IT.
I MEAN, I THINK REALLY WHAT WE'RE DOING AT THE CURRENT TIME IS REPUTATION MANAGEMENT.
WE ARE, YOU KNOW, INFLUENCING TRIPS.
WE'RE GETTING OUR MESSAGE OUT, YOU KNOW, I KNOW THAT WE JUST GOT OUR, WE, I THINK WE CROSSED THE MILLIONTH MARK ON RIDERSHIP ON THE SEDONA SHUTTLE.
I THINK REALLY, YOU KNOW, METRICS THAT I LOOK AT, AND I HAVEN'T RUN THE NUMBERS YET FOR A COMPARISON ON, UM, CALENDAR YEAR LAST YEAR, BUT WE'RE LOOKING AT SEARCH AND RESCUE INCIDENTS.
ARE THOSE GOING UP? ARE THOSE GOING DOWN? UM, YOU KNOW, YOU COULD LOOK AT INSTANCES OF GRAFFITI.
I THINK WE HAVEN'T SET UP THOSE BASELINES YET, BUT I THINK THAT SOMEDAY, YEAH, SOMEDAY FOR SURE.
THAT'S DEFINITELY, YOU KNOW, PART OF THE LARGER STRATEGY IS, YOU KNOW, AWARENESS IS THERE IS BEHAVIOR CHANGING AND BEHAVIOR CHANGING IS A LOT DIFFERENT TO KIND OF MONITOR AND TRACK AND TO CORRELATE TOWARD, TO CAUSALITY, RIGHT? UM, BUT YOU KNOW, I THINK OTHER THAN KNOWING THAT FOLKS ARE SEEING THE MESSAGE, KNOWING THAT THERE'S CONTENT OUT THERE THAT'S TALKING THE WAY THAT WE WANT TO TALK, KNOWING THAT THAT'S GETTING CASCADED DOWN, I THINK THAT'S CURRENTLY THE METRIC THAT WE LOOK AT.
BUT I'M EXCITED TO SORT OF BUILD OUT A BROADER, BROADER SET OF METRICS BASED ON A BASELINE.
AND I THINK WE'LL BE ABLE TO SHARE SOME OF THOSE LATER.
UM, SOME OF THE, I THINK THE FOURTH ITEM WE HAVE WILL BE AN EXAMPLE OF HOW WE'RE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE BIGGER PICTURE STUFF.
AND I KNOW THAT THERE'S NO SET ANSWER ON IT.
WOULD BE HARD TO TRACK ANYWAY, BUT THANK YOU.
YOU HAVE MORE TO GO? YEP, GO FOR IT.
I HAVE, I HAVE A QUESTION, RIGHT? I MISSED, SO THE FRONT PAGE OF THE PAPER TODAY HAS A, AN ARTICLE ABOUT TAX COLLECTIONS BEING UP THROUGH THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF THE FISCAL YEAR.
AND IT SAID THAT THE, UH, UM, BED TAX COLLECTIONS INCREASED BY 16% FROM LAST YEAR IN AUGUST AND DECEMBER, WHILE COLLECTIONS FOR JULY WERE DOWN 7%.
AND I KNOW THAT, UH, SOMETIMES THE COLLECTIONS ARE OFF AND SEE YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THEM QUARTERLY VERSUS MONTH BY MONTH.
BUT DO YOU THINK THAT THAT, UM, IF YOU LOOK AT JULY BEING, AND I DON'T KNOW HOW, I DON'T HAVE THE NUMBERS SPECIFICALLY, BUT IF YOU AVERAGE IT OUT, IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE IMPROVED IN THE SUMMER.
WOULD YOU AGREE WITH THAT? I MEAN, AUGUST UP 16%, JULY DOWN 7%, BUT I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS IN TERMS OF REAL DOLLARS, BUT PUT 'EM TOGETHER, IT SOUNDS LIKE THERE WAS AN INCREASE.
AND THAT'S JUST HOTELS DOESN'T INCLUDE STR DATA.
UM, I GUESS I'M NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT REPORT YOU'RE REFERRING TO.
IF IT WAS BED TAX COLLECTIONS THAT WOULD OUR, OUR OWN.
YEAH, THAT WOULD, THE, THE, THE CITY'S BED TAX REPORTS INCLUDE HOTELS, SHORT-TERM RENTALS AND TIMESHARES THAT SELL ON THE OPEN MARKET.
SO THAT WOULD BE INCLUSIVE OF THAT.
NO, THIS, THIS DATA SAYS IT'S NOT, THERE'S
[02:20:01]
NO SPR INFORMATION IN HERE.JUST HOTELS NOW, IT'S NOT BROKEN OUT.
IN THE, IT'S IN, IN THE TOTAL THERE ARE STR IT'S HARD TO, AND IT SAYS THAT OCCUPANCY, IT WAS THE LOWEST ANNUAL OCCUPANCY WAS THE LOWEST FOR ANY OF THE PRECEDING 10 YEARS, EXCEPT FOR 2020.
SO THAT SAYS TO ME THAT ED TAX IS UP, MAYBE THERE'S SOME SHIFTING TOWARDS STR, BUT IN TERMS OF THE SUMMER, I'M JUST WONDERING, CAN YOU CORRELATE AT ALL WITH OUR, WITH OUR, UH, TAX COLLECTION REPORTS, HOW THE CAMPAIGNS ARE GOING IN THE WINTER AND SUMMER MONTHS? OR IS IT JUST TOO COMPLICATED BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE ALL THE STR DATA AVAILABLE? YEAH, I MEAN, I, AGAIN, I WISH I COULD SEE EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT TO KIND OF FOLLOW ALONG, BUT, UM, I DO KNOW THAT, YOU KNOW, BASED ON THE RES RESEARCH THAT WE DISTRIBUTE ON LODGING PERFORMANCE THAT JANUARY AND FEBRUARY WERE REALLY STRONG.
FEBRUARY WAS NOTABLY A STRONG MONTH.
UM, I DON'T THINK THAT THAT'S A HUNDRED PERCENT BECAUSE OF THE CAMPAIGN THAT WE RAN, BUT, YOU KNOW, PARTY BEING LIKES TO THINK THAT THAT MIGHT HAVE HAD AN INFLUENCE.
UM, I DO KNOW THAT KIND OF LAST SUMMER WAS A VERY HARD SUMMER FOR THE CITY.
UM, FROM A KIND OF TOURISM PERSPECTIVE, I THINK THERE'S, YOU KNOW, WE DID RUN A CAMPAIGN.
THERE'S MACRO FACTORS THAT WERE INVOLVED WITH.
YOU KNOW, TYPICALLY DURING AN ELECTION YEAR, THINGS TEND TO SLOW DOWN.
SO, UM, YOU KNOW, ALSO ADRS HAVE BEEN HIGHER AT TIMES.
UM, THAT'S ONE THING THAT CAN DRIVE UP DEMAND IN BED TAX COLLECTIONS.
UM, I AT LEAST KNOW CONSISTENTLY THAT, UM, WHEN I REPORT ON SHORT TERM RENTALS THAT, YOU KNOW, OCCUPANCY STAYING RELATIVELY STATIC, A DR IS STAYING RELATIVELY STATIC, BUT REVENUE'S GONE UP.
UM, THAT TYPICALLY MEANS THAT THE SUPPLY HAS GONE UP.
SO, UM, THAT'S WHERE OCCUPANCY'S NOT ALWAYS KING, YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT REVENUE, BUT REVENUE COULD BE TIED TO A DR AS WELL AS SUPPLY.
UM, BUT I WILL SAY ALSO THAT WHEN WE LOOK AT OUR OWN REPORTING AND WE SEE THAT OUR BED TAX REVENUE IS UP, IF OUR SALES AND BED TAX ARE UP AND OUR HOTELIERS, IF WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT DATA AND IT'S SHOWING THAT THEY'RE NOT UP, THEN WE IMMEDIATELY LOOK TO THE SHORT TERM RENTALS ON HOW WHO FILLED IN THAT GAP.
AND IT'S USUALLY THE SHORT TERM RENTALS.
AND I WOULD SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, IF I LOOK BACK IN THE LAST YEAR, I'M SEEING A MARKET STRENGTH SHIFT TOWARDS THE SHORT TERM RENTAL DATA THAT WE HAVE.
THAT'S SAYING THAT, YOU KNOW, IF HOTELS ARE UP, AND AGAIN, I'M JUST, IF HOTELS ARE UP 4% AND BED TAXES UP 8% OR 9%, THAT'S BECAUSE THOSE GAINS WERE MADE IN THE SHORT TERM RENTAL LAYER.
HOLLY, DID YOU HAVE MORE, MORE TO SAY? I WANNA MAKE SURE YOU WEREN'T CUT OFF.
UH, IT JUST, IT WAS THE FRONT PAGE ARTICLE IN THE RED ROCK NEWS THIS MORNING.
SO TAKE A LOOK AT IT AND SEE HOW, IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU CAN CORRELATE THE NUMBERS WITH THE CAMPAIGNS MM-HMM
OKAY, SO NEXT IS THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN STRATEGY.
SO WE WOULD LIKE TO RUN THE REDEFINED DESERT CAMPAIGN AS WE DID IN THE WINTER, BUT IT WILL JUST BE A SUMMER VERSION.
WE'RE HOPING IT WILL FEATURE BOTH STEWARDSHIP AND ATTRACTION MESSAGING, AND GRAPHICALLY THE ADS WILL FEATURE THOSE GRAPHICS WITH THE IMAGES THAT ARE BREAKING THE FRAME.
IT'S A LITTLE BIT HARD TO TELL, BUT THE WHITE LINE THAT'S COMING IN AND OUT IS WHAT I'M TRYING TO DESCRIBE.
WE'RE HOPING TO LAUNCH THE CAMPAIGN FROM MAY 15TH TO AUGUST 31ST.
AND WE PLAN ON SPENDING $163,000 ON PAID GOOGLE SEARCH, META ATTRACTION MESSAGING IN ALL THE MARKETS THAT ARE LISTED BELOW ON THE SLIDE.
META IN-MARKET EDUCATION AND STEWARDSHIP MESSAGING.
AGAIN, THAT'S SEDONA WITH A 25 MILE RADIUS AND PHOENIX.
THAT'S VIDEOS AND STILL IMAGES, ATTRIBUTION BASED WEB ADS THAT STILL IMAGES IN ROTATING BANNERS.
AND THEN THE NEWEST PORTION THAT I'LL BE GOING OVER IS THE ATTRIBUTION BASED CTV ADS.
SO THAT'S VIDEOS WITH VOICEOVER, BOTH STEWARDSHIP AND THAT KIND OF COME STAY PLAY MESSAGING.
AND HOW MUCH WAS THE CAMPAIGN, UH, VALUED AT
[02:25:01]
LAST SUMMER? LAST SUMMER'S CAMPAIGN WAS, HANG ON, I CAN REFERENCE IT.I'VE GOT IT IN ONE OF MY EIGHT DOCUMENTS THAT I HAVE HERE.
WINTER, SUMMER 2024 WAS 105 K 80 80 K SPENT ON THE ATTRIBUTION BASED ADS NON CTV OBVIOUSLY AND 20 K ON META IN MARKET.
UM, I'LL SAY WHAT'S PRESENTED TONIGHT IS PART OF THE, IN OUR ANNUAL BUDGET PROCESS, THE $350,000 THAT I HAVE CARVED OUT FOR ADVERTISING.
UM, SO WE CHOSE THESE MARKETS THAT ARE LISTED BASED ON THE ROI FROM PREVIOUS SUMMER AND WINTER CAMPAIGNS.
NOW THESE MARKETS ARE THE SAME AS LAST SUMMER MINUS NEW YORK CITY BECAUSE OF THE LOW ROI AND YET CONTINUED HIGH SPEND THAT WE SAW IN BOTH THE SUMMER AND THE WINTER, WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE OTHER LOWER ROI MARKETS OF SEATTLE AND SAN FRANCISCO IN AN EFFORT TO SEE IF WE CAN CAPITALIZE ON THE STEWARDSHIP AUDIENCE THAT WE KNOW LIVES THERE AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THE BRAND AWARENESS THROUGH THE CTV ADS THAT I'M GONNA GO OVER IN A MINUTE.
SO SPEAKING OF THESE ADS, WHAT IS IT? CTV ADS ARE ADS PLACED ON STREAMING SERVICES LIKE AMAZON, HULU, AND PEACOCK.
AND THEY ARE ATTRIBUTION BASED, JUST LIKE THE ONLINE ADS THAT WE DELIVER TO THE CERTAIN PERSONAS IN THE MARKETS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
THEY USE CROSS DEVICE ASSOCIATION TO DETERMINE IF THE PERSON FITS OUR TARGET AUDIENCE AND THEN TRACKS IF THEY WATCH THE AD ON THEIR TV AND IF THEY END UP IN MARKET.
AND IF SO, HOW LONG AND WHERE.
THIS IS OUR PARTICULARLY HIGH IMPACT TYPE OF ADVERTISING BECAUSE USUALLY YOU HAVE THEIR UNDIVIDED ATTENTION AND YOU CAN SAY MORE THAN YOU DO WITH A WEB AD.
SO YOU'RE NOT COMPETING FOR SPACE, IT'S JUST ONE TV.
YOU'RE USUALLY WATCHING THAT UNLESS YOU'RE ALSO LOOKING ON YOUR PHONE, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY.
BUT IT'S A GREAT WAY TO BUILD BRAND AWARENESS AND WE HOPE IT WILL DRIVE ROI UP IN THOSE FURTHER MARKETS, AS I SAID EARLIER.
SO HERE IS THE CAMPAIGN CONCEPT.
I'LL JUST, I DON'T HAVE TO GO OVER ALL OF THESE, BUT SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE WERE THINKING, UM, IT WILL BE, UH, A SUMMER VERSION OF THE REDEFINED CAMPAIGN.
SO REDEFINE SUMMER, OBVIOUSLY.
UM, POOL TIME, SUNRISE, SIESTA.
THIS WAS ONE THAT WE THOUGHT, UM, YOU KNOW, NORMALLY YOU THINK OF SIESTA, YOU THINK OF A NAP, UM, BUT HERE, YOU KNOW, IN THE SUMMER YOU GOTTA GET CREATIVE ABOUT WHAT YOU DO FROM THOSE HOURS OF 12 TO FOUR WHEN IT IS JUST BLAZING HOT OUTSIDE.
AND SO OUR TAKE ON THAT WAS, UM, TAKE A POTTERY CLASS, UM, GO AND, UM, BLOW GLASS.
LIKE WE HAD SOME IMAGES FROM THE LAST, UM, CAMPAIGN WITH, YOU KNOW, THOSE TYPES OF ACTIVITIES.
SO WE, UM, WE SHOT SOME, WE RECENTLY SHOT SOME, SOME FOOTAGE OF THAT, UM, FARM TO TABLE.
UM, WE THOUGHT AN INTERESTING EXECUTION, I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S GONNA COME TOGETHER, BUT, UM, OF, UH, UM, ROVING CERAMICS ACTUALLY USES RED DIRT IN THEIR, UM, CLAY MIX.
AND SO, UM, YOU KNOW, THAT'S KIND OF A CHEEKY VERSION OF FARM TO TABLE BECAUSE YOU'RE TAKING, YOU KNOW, SAND FROM SEDONA AND PUTTING IT IN SOMETHING THAT YOU'RE DRINKING FROM THE TABLE.
UH, THEN THE FAMILY TIME, MINDFULNESS, DESERT ROAD TRIP, THESE ALL DID REALLY WELL IN THE LAST CAMPAIGN AND WE'LL CARRY THOSE OVER.
SO WHAT DO THOSE LOOK LIKE? UM, THESE ARE FROM THE CAMPAIGN OR THE SHOOT THAT ANDREW DID JUST TWO WEEKS AGO.
UM, HE WAS A GOOD SPORT FOR BEING THE MODEL THERE AND THE RIGHT ONE.
IT'S JUST A REALLY QUICK EXECUTION.
WE GOT THE IMAGES BACK AND WE QUICKLY JUST POPPED THEM IN SO THAT YOU CAN JUST HAVE AN IDEA OF HOW WE'RE GOING.
UM, ANDREW'S A LITTLE BIT UPSET THAT THE BACKPACK IS A LITTLE CROOKED
WE'RE JUST GONNA HAVE TO EMBRACE THAT.
DID YOU HAVE A GLASS OF WINE WHILE YOU WERE DOING THAT? THIS IS AT SUNRISE.
BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT WE WERE REALLY INTENTIONAL WITH WHAT ANDREW IS WEARING.
UM, HE'S WEARING HIKING SHOES.
[02:30:01]
A LONG SLEEVE SHIRT IN THE SUMMER BECAUSE YOU SHOULD COVER UP WHEN YOU'RE OUT THERE.HE'S WEARING A HAT, HE'S GOT SUNGLASSES ON, HE'S GOT A BACKPACK AND HE'S GOT A WATER BOTTLE.
CHECK, CHECK, CHECK, RIGHT? THESE ARE ALL THINGS THAT WE WANT, UM, PEOPLE, WE WANT PEOPLE TO LOOK LIKE THIS, UM, WHEN THEY'RE ON THE TRAIL.
SO, WELL, MAYBE NOT THE WHOLE WAY.
SO LET'S TALK ABOUT TAR TARGET AUDIENCES.
SO HERE ARE THE PERSONAS FOR THE ATTRIBUTION BASED MARKETING.
THESE ARE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT WE'VE BEEN USING.
THE ECO-CONSCIOUS EXPLORE, THE WELLNESS SEEKER, THE ADVENTURE ENTHUSIASTS, THE CULTURAL EXPLORER, AND THE UNINFORMED ADVENTURE, OR THE UNINFORMED ADVENTURE IS A NICE WAY OF US SAYING THE PERSON WHO'S COMING UP HERE FOR THE DAY, UM, MAYBE THEY DIDN'T DO THEIR RESEARCH.
UM, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THAT SHOULDN'T BE A SPECIFIC TARGET AUDIENCE THAT WE'RE TRYING TO MAKE SURE THAT OUR MESSAGING, ESPECIALLY SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGING IS GETTING IN FRONT OF.
SO SOMETHING FROM LAST WEEK, THE TAB RECOMMENDED THAT WE EXPLORE HOW TO ATTRACT A HIGHER INCOME VISITOR, BECAUSE ANECDOTALLY, A FEW TAB MEMBERS WERE SEEING LOWER THAN NORMAL EARLY APRIL SALES NUMBERS.
AND THEY'RE AFRAID THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SUMMER WITH PEOPLE CUTTING DISCRETIONARY TRA TRAVEL UNLESS YOU'RE AT THE TOP END OF THE INCOME BRACKET.
SO WITH OUR MARKETING FIRM, I'VE JUST HAD INITIAL CONVERSATIONS OF HOW OF WAYS TO DO THIS, MAYBE FIRST WITH A TEST, BUT I DO WANNA MAKE SURE THAT CITY COUNCIL IS IN FAVOR OF EXPLORING THIS AS WELL, IN CASE I NEED TO LEAN IN HEAVIER TO THIS AS THE CAMPAIGN GOES ON.
SO, BUT BEFORE WE GET INTO THAT DISCUSSION, I WOULD LIKE TO GIVE AN UPDATE ON OUR ALWAYS ON STEWARDSHIP ADVERTISING.
SO OUTSIDE OF THE MONTHS THAT WE RUN OUR DESTINATION CAMPAIGNS, WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING AS OUR AD STRATEGY.
WE PLAY THREE VIDEOS ON SEDONA NOW, IN CASE YOU'RE WONDERING WHAT THOSE ARE.
IT'S LOVE IT LIKE A LOCAL HOW TO DRIVE ROUNDABOUT AND OUR TRANSIT VIDEO.
SO PITCHING OUR TRANSIT SYSTEM, WE PLAY THE LOVET LIKE A LOCAL VIDEO ON OUR SEDONA TRAILHEAD SERVICE ROUTES.
YOU HEARD ANDREW SAY WE'VE HAD A HUNDRED PASSENGER BOARDINGS, UM, SINCE WE START A A MILLION, I MISSED A FEW ZEROES THERE.
A MILLION PASSENGER BOARDINGS.
WE KNOW WE WANNA, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE SITTING THERE ON THE BUS.
WHY NOT PLAY A VIDEO THAT SHOWS, THIS IS HOW WE WANT YOU TO ACT WHEN YOU'RE IN SEDONA.
WE PUT MONEY INTO PAID SEARCH.
THIS IS FOR TWO REASONS TO GET OUR WEBSITE HITS UP AND TO DIRECT PEOPLE TO OUR STEWARDSHIP AND TRAIL PAGES DURING THE BUSY SEASONS.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, UM, WE'RE BIDDING ON KEYWORDS LIKE, UM, THE SUBWAY CAVE, AND THEN GUESS WHAT? IT DOESN'T GO TO A PAGE ON THE SUBWAY CAVE.
IT GOES ONTO A PAGE OF OUR TRAILS THAT WE'VE HAND SELECTED TO SEE IF MAYBE WE COULD INFLUENCE, OH, I DIDN'T THINK ABOUT THAT.
SOMETHING THAT I WANNA CHECK OUT.
SO I'M SHOWING ADS TO PEOPLE OF JUSTICE ON A SHUTTLE.
THAT'S ACTUALLY ONE OF, UM, THE EXECUTIONS OF THAT, UH, AND SEEING IT WILL TRACK IF THEY END UP IN MARKET BASED ON JUST A SHUTTLE AD.
SO THAT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE RESULTS OF THAT.
IT'S A VERY SMALL AMOUNT AND IT WAS WITH A OT IT'S MORE OF A TEST FOR ME TO SEE DOES THIS WORK, DOES THIS RESONATE? AND THEN WE PLACE OUR STEWARDSHIP ONLY ADVERTISING ON META TO DIRECTLY OR TO DIRECT PEOPLE TO OUR SEDONA SHUTTLE AND STEWARDSHIP PAGES.
SO THE ADS LOOK A LOT LIKE THAT.
UM, AND IT'S BEEN A TEST THAT WE'VE BEEN USING, UM, WITH KEEGAN TO SEE IF WE CAN, UM, DRIVE UP THE AMOUNT OF CLICKS AND THE AMOUNT OF, UM, UH, STAYS ON OUR WEBPAGE ON THE SEDONA SHUTTLE.
SO NOW I'M GONNA HAND IT OFF TO ANDREW TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THE RESULTS WE'RE SEEING FROM THIS PAID SEARCH EFFORT.
AND TO BUILD ONTO LAUREN'S COMMENTS, A LOT OF KIND OF THE, THE PAID STRATEGIES, UM, ARE TIED TO THE ARIZONA OFFICE OF TOURISM RURAL CO-OP PROGRAM, WHICH JUST AS A QUICK REMINDER EACH YEAR, UM, RURAL COMMUNITIES, WHICH WE ARE CONSIDERED ONE BY THEM, UM, CAN APPLY FOR UP TO $50,000 OF MATCHING FUNDING ON A SERIES OF PRE-SELECTED STRATEGIES.
SO WE WENT PRETTY BROAD THIS YEAR.
WE DID SOME STRATEGIES THAT WERE TIED TO JUST GETTING AGENCY ASSISTANCE WITH KIND OF PROCESSES OF KIND OF NEW PROGRAMS WE WERE DEVELOPING, BUT WE ALSO SAW THEY HAD, YOU KNOW, YOUR STANDARD PAID AD STRATEGIES.
BUT WHEN WE LOOKED AT IT, WE SAID, WHY NOT KIND OF FLIP THE CONCEPT UPSIDE DOWN? 'CAUSE THESE FOLKS ARE TYPICALLY USED TO DOING PAID STRATEGIES FOR INSPIRATION.
I SAID, CAN WE REALLY TRY THESE STRATEGIES FOR EDUCATION DURING, DURING THAT HIGH SEASON WHERE, YOU KNOW, I STILL FEEL
[02:35:01]
LIKE OUR ROLE IS TO, YOU KNOW, INVEST IN STRATEGIES THAT MAKE MORE VISITORS FEEL LIKE LESS WHEN THEY'RE HERE, UM, AND REALLY HELP US MANAGE THAT VISITATION.SO, UM, WE HAVE A PAID STRATEGY WITH MADDEN MEDIA THAT WAS FOCUSED ON BUILDING AWARENESS OF THE NEW GETTING AROUND PAGE THAT WE WERE ABLE TO PUBLISH WITH ROB'S ASSISTANCE THAT TALKS ABOUT HOW TO GET TO AND WITHIN SEDONA WITHOUT A CAR WITH A BIG PRESENTATION ON THE SEDONA SHUTTLE.
AND THEN, UM, WE ALSO HAVE OUR, YOU KNOW, STEWARDSHIP LOVE IT LIKE A LOCAL PAGE.
SO THOSE WERE THE TWO LANDING PAGES THAT WE, UM, ARE DIRECTING TRAFFIC TO.
AND THEN WE BOUGHT A SERIES OF KEYWORDS, OR WE'VE BEEN, YOU KNOW, USING A SERIES OF KEYWORDS ASSOCIATED TO THAT IN ORDER TO DRIVE TRAFFIC TO THOSE.
THIS IS PEOPLE THAT HAVE AN INTENT TO SEARCH, UM, AND THEN WE'RE DRIVING THEM TO THE INFORMATION THAT THEY WANT.
UM, I THINK, YOU KNOW, WE TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE PAID SEARCH, WHICH IS 4.86% IS THE INDUSTRY AVERAGE FOR TOURISM HOSPITALITY BETWEEN THE TWO AD GROUPS OF TRANSPORTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY, WE ARE, UH, MUCH HIGHER.
WE'RE ACTUALLY IN DOUBLE DIGITS ON THE CLICK THROUGH RATE ON THAT.
AND REALLY WANNA DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO PHOENIX WHERE WE'RE AT 112% CLICK THROUGH RATE, WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR US, WHICH REALLY TELLS ME THAT THIS IS INFORMATION THAT PEOPLE DON'T ALREADY KNOW THAT THEY'RE LOOKING FOR.
AND WE HAVE A, YOU KNOW, A HUGE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THIS PAGE CERT SPACE TO MAKE SURE THAT, AGAIN, WE'RE DOING REPUTATION MANAGEMENT, THE INFORMATION THAT WE WANT TO SHARE ABOUT HOW TO GET TO AND WITHIN SEDONAS SOMETHING THAT WE ARE KIND OF OWNING THE NARRATIVE ON.
AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK, UM, THERE WAS A QUESTION BEFORE ABOUT HOW DO WE KNOW THAT OUR SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGE IS RESONATING? I THINK ONE WAY I WOULD LOOK AT IS THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE LOOKING FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO A LOT OF OUR SUSTAINABILITY MESSAGING, AND THIS TO ME IS A REALLY EXCELLENT PROOF POINT THAT WE ONLY HAD TO PAY 50% OF TO GET.
ANDREW, HOW DO YOU GET 112% CLICK THROUGH RATE? YEAH.
ON PHOENIX? THAT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE.
LIKE, YOU'D HAVE TO BE, YOU'D HAVE TO BE DOUBLE COUNTING THE SAME IP ADDRESS CLICKING TO GET A CLICK THROUGH RATE OVER A HUNDRED PERCENT.
WELL, I WILL GO BACK TO MADDEN AND I CAN FOLLOW UP WITH YOU ALL ON THAT.
I THINK THERE'S AN EXTRA ONE IN THAT, UH, IN THAT I HOPE NOT.
I HOPE THERE'S SOME MAGIC SPACE WHERE SOMEHOW THAT CAN EXIST, BUT WE'LL LOOK AT IT.
WELL, IT'S JUST SO FAR OFF FROM THE REST THAT YEAH, IT'S, IT LOOKS LIKE SOMETHING.
SO THE DISCUSSION ON THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN, UM, LAST WEEK WHEN WE MET WITH THE TAB FEELS LIKE FOREVER AGO, BUT IT WAS LAST WEEK, UH, THEY TOLD US THAT THEY SUPPORT THE SUMMER MARKETING STRATEGY WITH THE CTV CONCEPT.
THEY EXPLORE, UH, THEY SUPPORT EXPLORING HOW TO GET VISITORS TO SPEND MORE MONEY AND POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE FLOOR OF THAT TARGETED VISITOR'S, UM, INCOME.
WHAT DOES CITY COUNCIL THINK? DO THEY, I DON'T WANNA COMMIT TOO HARD TO THIS HIGHER DOLLAR VISITOR BECAUSE I DON'T KNOW HOW IT'S GONNA PLAY OUT.
WHAT I'M, WHAT I'M HOPING IS THAT CITY COUNCIL SUPPORTS ME INVESTIGATING FURTHER AND TAKING AN INCREMENTAL APPROACH, TESTING IT, AND THEN SEEING IF WE SHOULD LEAN IN HARDER.
KATHY? WELL, THAT WAS MY QUESTION.
EXPLORING HOW TO GET VISITORS SPEND MORE MONEY.
HOW DO YOU EXPLORE THAT IT'S PLAYING WITH THOSE TARGET AUDIENCES? SO I, SO DO I, UM, DO WE INCREASE THE, UM, AVERAGE INCOME THAT I'M LOOKING FOR? DO I MOVE THAT NEEDLE A LITTLE BIT? UM, I DON'T THINK WE'RE GONNA HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ACTUALLY CREATE ADS SPECIFICALLY FOR HIGH DOLLAR VISITORS.
THAT COULD BE SOMETHING THAT WE DO IN THE FUTURE.
BUT, UM, AT LEAST FOR THE SUMMER CAMPAIGN, IT WOULD BE PLAYING AROUND WITH WHO THE TARGET AUDIENCE IS.
AND SHOULD I BE GOING FOR SOMEONE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT I'M DOING NOW, PETE? UH, YOU'VE DEMONSTRATED TO ME YOUR THOUGHTFULNESS AND APPROACH IN THE STRATEGY, SO I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS MORE WHAT YOU THINK NEEDS TO BE DONE.
UH, I WILL PUT OUT THERE THAT THE DECLINE IN DISCRETIONARY SPENDING MIGHT BE TRUE.
IT MIGHT ALSO BE CHANGING TASTE, AND WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.
DEREK, I LIKE THE APPROACH THAT YOU'RE SUGGESTING THAT WE KIND OF TEST THE WATERS MM-HMM
UH, OBVIOUSLY WE DON'T WANT TO JUST COMMIT RIGHT OFF THE BAT TO SOMETHING WITHOUT HAVING SOME IDEA WHETHER IT WORKS.
SO YEAH, APPRECIATE YOUR THOUGHTFULNESS ON THIS.
ON CTV, UM, YES, ON EXPLORING
AND LIKE COUNCILOR FURMAN SAID, WE HAVE TO CONSIDER CHANGING
[02:40:01]
BUYING BEHAVIOR ALSO.AND WE KNOW THAT, YOU KNOW, UH, BABY BOOMERS VERSUS GEN X VERSUS GEN Y, ET CETERA, PEOPLE ARE TRENDING TOWARDS EXPERIENCES OVER STUFF.
AND IT'S A HARD CONVERSATION AND IT'S ONE WE NEED TO HAVE WITH THE CHAMBER ABOUT PEOPLE LOOKING IN THE MIRROR AND GOING, OKAY, IS WHAT I'M SELLING STILL RELEVANT TODAY? LIKE IT WAS THREE TO FIVE YEARS AGO AND MAY NOT BE.
SO HOLLY, YOU KNOW, THAT'S EXACTLY WHERE I WAS GOING TO BRIAN, ARE WE SELLING THINGS THAT PEOPLE WANNA BUY? 'CAUSE MAYBE THAT'S PART OF THE PROBLEM.
UH, AND THEN ALSO NEXT WEEK WHEN WE TALK ABOUT BUDGET MM-HMM
I THINK WE HAVE TO SERIOUSLY LOOK AT ECONOMIC TRENDS BOTH, UH, GLOBALLY AND DOMESTICALLY AND WHAT WE THINK THE IMPACTS ARE GONNA HAVE OVERALL ON REVENUE, WHICH I THINK WILL DRIVE SOME OF THIS TOO.
LIKE, HOW MUCH DO WE WANT TO INVEST IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET? AND MAYBE WE'RE NOT INVESTING A LOT WHEN THE, UH, RELATIONSHIPS, THE GEOPOLITICAL RELATIONSHIPS MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON VISITATION TO THE UNITED STATES.
UH, I APPRECIATE THE FACT, YOU KNOW, THE MORE I I'M SEEING ABOUT THE TAB, THE MORE THEY EVOLVE, THE MORE THEY'RE PROVIDING GOOD INFORMATION.
SO I SUPPORT THEIR SUGGESTIONS AND THE RECOMMENDATION.
BEFORE, I MEAN, YOU'RE REALLY A STOP GAP FOR ME, LAUREN, AND IF, YOU KNOW, I, YOU HAVE SHOWN THAT YOU HAVE A GOOD BAROMETER OF WHAT TO DO.
SO I WOULD, I WILL GO ALONG WITH YOUR SUGGESTIONS AND BECAUSE YOU'RE SAYING IF IT DOESN'T WORK, YOU'RE NOT GONNA MOVE FORWARD WITH IT.
AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT SOMEONE WHO'S WATCHING, UH, THE MONEY, BUT ALSO WATCHING THE MESSAGING.
SO I'M A HUNDRED PERCENT, UH, SUPPORTING OF YOUR IDEA AND YOUR PROPOSAL.
I'M GOING TO HAND IT OFF TO ANDREW NOW AGAIN TO GET INTO THE, WHAT I WOULD CALL THE INTERESTING PART OF THE PRESENTATION.
SOMETHING THAT COUNCILOR FURMAN KIND OF, UM, POKED US ALONG IN ONE OF OUR PREVIOUS MEETINGS AND SOMETHING THAT WE'VE BEEN DOING A LOT OF WORK BEHIND THE SCENES.
AND SO WE'D LOVE TO, UM, KIND OF COME, COME TO YOU WITH AT LEAST OUR INITIAL KIND OF DEEP DIVE WITH DATA AND THE STORY THAT WE THINK IT'S TELLING, UM, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO, UM, LEARN MORE ABOUT IT IN THE FUTURE.
AND I LIKE TO LOOK AT EVERYTHING THROUGH THE LENS OF OUR SEDONA TOURISM PLAN THAT YOU ALL, UM, APPROVED BACK IN AUGUST.
BUT, YOU KNOW, IN STRENGTHEN THE ORGANIZATION, ONE OF THE INITIATIVES IS TO ENHANCE OUR RESEARCH PORTFOLIO TO MAKE MORE INFORMED DECISIONS.
SO I'D REALLY KIND OF SAY THAT THIS IS REALLY THE FOCUS OF THE REST OF OUR PRESENTATION.
UM, AND THE TIMING'S INTERESTING BECAUSE, UM, I'M HERE TO TALK ABOUT SHORT TERM RENTAL PERFORMANCE DATA, WHICH IT WAS KIND OF A TOPIC DURING THE LAST AGENDA AGENDA ITEM.
SO, UM, I KNOW YOU'VE ALL SEEN OUR MONTHLY TOURISM RESEARCH REPORTS.
UM, OBVIOUSLY WE GET OUR HOTEL PERFORMANCE DATA FROM SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH.
WE ARE PURCHASING OUR SHORT TERM RENTAL LISTING DATA FROM AN ENTITY CALLED KEY DATA.
UM, AIR DNA WAS BROUGHT UP BEFORE THAT IS A COMPETITOR TO KEY DATA.
THERE'S ANOTHER ENTITY CALLED LIGHTHOUSE.
THOSE, WHAT I WOULD CALL KIND OF THE BIG THREE THAT PROVIDE SIMILAR ACCESS TO INFORMATION.
UM, I THINK I'VE SAID THIS TO COUNCIL BEFORE, BUT, UM, KEY DATA AND LIGHTHOUSE HAVE ACCESS TO DIRECT DATA FROM PROPERTY MANAGERS THAT SUBMIT THAT, OR SHORT TERM RENTAL OWNERS THAT SUBMIT THAT.
SO IT'S THE MOST ACCURATE YOU CAN GET, ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT A HUGE SAMPLE SIZE IN THE TOTAL INVENTORY, BUT I PERSONALLY GRAVITATE TOWARDS PROVIDERS THAT HAVE AT LEAST THAT AS A DATA FEED.
UM, ALL THREE PROVIDE SCRAPED DATA, UM, WHICH ESSENTIALLY GOES ON THE TWO MAJOR LISTING PLATFORMS, AIRBNB AND VRBO.
WE KNOW THAT SHORT TERM RENTALS ARE SO SOLD ON PLACES LIKE EXPEDIA, SO I CAN GUARANTEE YOU IT'S NOT A HUNDRED PERCENT OF THE SALES, BUT THOSE ARE THE BIG TWO.
WITH AIRBNB BEING THE BIGGEST ONE, UM, THEY GO ONTO THOSE PLATFORMS. THEY BASICALLY SCRUB THE INFORMATION OR SCRIPT THE INFORMATION TO KNOW HOW MANY LISTINGS ARE ACTIVE AND THEN WERE THEY AVAILABLE TO BOOK OR NOT.
IF THEY'RE NOT AVAILABLE TO BOOK, THEY'VE GOT THE, YOU KNOW, THE RATE AND EVERYTHING ELSE.
SO, UM, THERE'S A CAVEAT HERE THAT, UM, A KNOWN ISSUE RELATED TO SCRAPE DATA IS THAT IF IT'S OWNER OCCUPIED WHILE IT'S ACTIVE, IT'S CONSIDERED A BOOKING, WHICH IS CONSIDERED REVENUE.
UM, SO I CAN GUARANTEE YOU THERE'S SOME OVERINFLATION OR SORT OF OVER OVER REPORTING THAT'S IN THIS DATA SET IN LIEU OF HAVING ACCESS TO A BETTER ONE.
THIS TRULY IS INDUSTRY BEST PRACTICE.
SO, UM, JUST LIKE TO GIVE THOSE DISCLAIMERS, BUT THIS IS HOW WE REPORT ON OCCUPANCY AVERAGE DAILY RATE, GUEST NIGHTS AND REVENUE.
UM, I WANNA ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS IS REPORTING ON SHORT
[02:45:01]
TERM RENTAL LISTING PERFORMANCE, WHERE I WOULD SAY THERESA REPORTS ON COMPLIANCE TO THE LICENSE POLICY.SO THEY'RE TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.
UM, THIS IS REALLY LOOKING AT, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS THE MARKET STRENGTH OR WHAT'S HAPPENING FROM AN ECONOMIC SIDE OF THING ON THESE LISTINGS.
UM, PRIOR TO ESSENTIALLY TODAY, OR FRANKLY THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS, UM, EVERY TIME WE'VE SHOWN THE KEY DATA FOR THE CITY OF SEDONA, IT'S BEEN INCLUSIVE OF ALL AIRBNB LISTINGS WITHIN THE CITY OF SEDONA THAT ARE DEEMED ACTIVE BY KEY DATA.
UM, WE KNOW THAT THAT WAS ALSO PICKING UP COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES 'CAUSE IT INCLUDED COMMERCIALLY ZONED LISTINGS.
UM, WHAT WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON, AND THANK YOU AARON, FROM THE GIS TEAM, WE'RE ABLE TO GET, UH, RESIDENTIAL ZONE FILES THAT WE SHARED WITH KEY DATAS AND HOW WE'VE ESSENTIALLY SEPARATED OUT THE COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL ZONES AND WE ARE MORE ACCURATELY REPORTING ON THE PERFORMANCE OF RESIDENTIALLY ZONED SHORT-TERM RENTAL, SHORT-TERM RENTAL LISTINGS ON THESE PLATFORMS. UM, SO THE SUCCESS OR KIND OF RESULT IS THAT WE ARE NOW MORE ALIGNED WITH THE CITY'S LICENSE PROGRAM.
UM, BEFORE I WOULD SAY THAT IT WAS, YOU KNOW, WATERED DOWN INFORMATION.
UM, AND WHAT I MEAN BY WATERED DOWN WAS THAT WE WERE INCLUDING HOTELS AND TIMESHARES INTO THE TOTAL REPORTING, WHICH TO ME BROUGHT DOWN THE AVERAGE DAILY RATE, UM, WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT, EVIDENCED BY THE FACT THAT I LOOKED AT JUST 20, 25 YEAR TO DATE A DR INCREASED BY REMOVING THE COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES BY $30 AT LEAST KIND OF WITHIN, UM, THE TOTAL WITHIN THE AIRBNB DATASET.
UM, VRBO OS TEND TO BE BIGGER HOUSES, SO IT'S ACTUALLY A HUNDRED A HUNDRED DOLLARS DIFFERENCE THERE.
UM, AND THEN, UH, TRULY, YOU KNOW, WHAT I'M EXCITED ABOUT IS NOW WE HAVE MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION RELATED TO THE PERFORMANCE OF SHORT-TERM RENTAL LISTINGS WITHIN THE RESIDENTIAL ZONES.
UM, ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT I REALLY CANNOT REPORT ON PERFORMANCE ACROSS AIRBNB AND VRBO TOGETHER.
I HAVE TO REPORT ON THEM SEPARATELY.
UM, A LOT OF PROPERTIES LIST ON BOTH.
UM, I DID DO A DEDUPED ANALYSIS TO KIND OF LOOK AT WHAT WERE THE TOTAL LISTINGS THERE, BUT AGAIN, THE TOTAL NUMBER OF LISTINGS IMPACTS OCCUPANCY.
UM, IT'S REALLY LOOKING AT, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S THE AVERAGE DAILY RATE, WHAT'S SORT OF THE, THE REVENUE THAT'S BEING GENERATED.
SO, UM, IT'S NOT PERFECT, I CAN TELL YOU THAT, BUT IT'S A LOT BETTER THAN IT WAS.
UM, THINGS THAT ARE STILL HAPPENING IS THAT I'M STILL SEEING WHEN THE WAY THAT THE LISTING PLATFORMS WORK IS THAT THEY DRAW A LINE IN A CIRCLE.
UM, SO I KNOW I'M PICKING UP SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES THAT ARE ON THE LINE OF THESE ZONES, SO I JUST WANNA KIND OF GIVE THAT, GIVE THAT QUALIFIER.
BUT AGAIN, IN LIEU OF HAVING A BETTER DATA SET, I THINK THIS IS THE BEST WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO DO.
UM, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, MOVING FORWARD, IF YOU'VE SEEN THE, THE MONTHLY RESEARCH REPORT, THERE'S NOW A SPECIFIC, UM, SLIDE DEDICATED TO THE RESIDENTIAL ZONES AND WE'VE ACTUALLY SWAPPED OUT ON THE LODGING SUMMARY THAT BOTTOM ROW, WHICH USED TO BE CITY OF SEDONA LISTINGS, IS NOW THE RESIDENTIAL ZONE LISTINGS.
SO JUST KNOW THAT MOVING FORWARD, UM, THIS IS HOW WE'RE REPORTING AND WHAT WE ARE REPORTING.
OKAY, THERE'S MORE COOL AND YET THERE'S MORE.
SO, UM, NOW COUNCILOR FURMAN, I'M REALLY EXCITED TO PRESENT AT LEAST, UM, THE NEXT PART OF THIS PRESENTATION, WHICH IS LOOKING AT, UM, A QUESTION THAT YOU'VE SHARED FOR US, WHICH IS WHAT, WHAT IS THAT PLAN, RIGHT? UM, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE WAY I LOOK AT THE PLAN, AT LEAST AT A HIGH LEVEL, IS THAT WE WANT TO DRAW A, YOU KNOW, A LINE WHERE WE DON'T WANT VISITATION TO FALL UNDER.
SO PUT A FLOOR DURING OUR LOW SEASONS TO MAKE SURE THAT WE MAINTAIN A MINIMUM LEVEL OF REVENUE FOR, FOR THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AND THEN ALSO LOOK AT DURING HIGH SEASONS, HOW DO WE INVEST IN STRATEGIES THAT MAKE MORE VISITORS FEEL LIKE LESS? HOW DO WE GET THEM TO USE THE SHUTTLE MORE? HOW DO WE GET THEM TO, UM, YOU KNOW, BUY THEIR RED ROCK PASS BEFORE THEY ARRIVE, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
SO, UM, BUT PART OF IT'S HOW DO WE KNOW, RIGHT? HOW DO WE UNDERSTAND WHETHER OR NOT WE'RE MOVING THE NEEDLE ON THAT AND WHAT ARE WAYS THAT WE CAN LOOK INTO, AND IT'S GONNA HAVE TO BE IN HINDSIGHT TO SOME EXTENT, YOU KNOW, DID WE, DID WE ADD VISITATION ON TOP OF VISITATION? UM, I'M HOPING WE'RE CHANGING THE VISITOR DEMOGRAPHIC OR AT LEAST CREATING A SMARTER VISITOR.
BUT YOU KNOW, YOUR POINT AROUND, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS THAT TOTAL VISITATION, UM, IS REALLY WHAT WE'RE HERE TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT TODAY.
SO, UM, ONE THING, YOU'VE HEARD ME SAY THIS BEFORE, I'M SUPER EXCITED THAT I GET TO WORK AT A DMO IN A CITY BECAUSE WE HAVE ACCESS TO A LOT OF OTHER CITY DEPARTMENTS THAT ARE COLLEAGUES.
SO, UM, WE WERE ABLE TO GO RIGHT OVER TO PUBLIC WORKS.
I WANNA THANK, YOU KNOW, DALTON AND JOHN OVER THERE, THEY'RE ABLE TO GIVE US TRAFFIC DATA THAT THEY GET FROM THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION.
UM, WE CURRENTLY AS A CITY ARE GETTING IT FOR SATURDAYS AND MAJOR HOLIDAYS.
THAT'S SORT OF, AGAIN, THE BELLWETHER
[02:50:01]
OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT DID THAT WEEK LOOK LIKE WITH SATURDAYS TYPICALLY BE IN THE HIGH DAYS.BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR US TO GET THIS FOR EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR, UM, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT WE ARE LOOKING INTO AS WE START TO EXPAND HOW WE'RE APPROACHING.
UM, THE WAY WE'RE GOING ABOUT THIS, THIS ANALYSIS IS ALL, ALL SATURDAYS YEAR ROUND.
UM, CURRENTLY, AGAIN, IT'S ALL 365 DAYS, BUT WHAT, WHAT I'VE SEEN SO FAR IS JUST ALL SATURDAYS AND THEN MAJOR HOLIDAYS.
UM, THE WAY THAT THE DATA WORKS IS THAT THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY TRAFFIC COUNTERS ON THE THREE MAJOR ROADWAYS IN AND OUT OF TOWN, WHICH IS 1 79 COMING NORTH, 89 A SOUTH COMING THROUGH UPTOWN IN 89, A NORTH COMING DOWN, KIND OF COOKS HILL TOWARDS THE Y THEY'RE NOT ALL SITUATED EQUIDISTANT,
SO EACH ONE HAS KIND OF THEIR OWN ECOSYSTEM OR KIND OF SET OF RULES, BUT UM, THAT'S ESSENTIALLY HOW IT WORKS.
UM, AND ONE THING THAT, UM, THE PUBLIC WORKS TEAM WAS ABLE TO DO IS THEY LOOKED AT KIND OF THE DATA.
THEY SAID, HEY, UM, WHAT'S THE TYPICAL TIME, SORRY, WE GET TRAFFIC VOLUME AND THEN TRAFFIC TIME.
UM, AND IT'S THE LONGEST TIME DURING THAT DAY THAT IT TOOK TO GET FROM THE TICKER TO TO, TO THE Y.
UM, SO CITY STAFF WAS ABLE TO ANALYZE THE TYPICAL TIME THAT IT TAKES TO REACH WITHOUT ESSENTIALLY CONGESTION.
UM, AND THEN WE SAT DOWN AND SET WHAT WE'RE KIND OF CALLING AN AN INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD.
WHAT IS THE TIME BEYOND THE TYPICAL TIME THAT IT STARTS TO FEEL LIKE WE'RE REACHING, YOU KNOW, NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON QUALITY OF LIFE? OR PEOPLE START TO SAY, HEY, YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH? FOR EXAMPLE, UM, YOU KNOW, SO QUICKLY WITH THIS, UH, YOU KNOW, EACH, EACH OF THEM HAS THEIR OWN INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD, WHERE I CALL IT THE PAIN CAVE.
THE PAIN CAVE WHEN YOU GO INTO THE PAIN CAVE.
UM, SO FOR 1 79 NORTH, UH, THE TYPICAL TIME WOULD BE 12 MINUTES, WE SAID PLUS 20 MINUTES ON THAT ONE WOULD GET YOU TO 32 MINUTES.
THAT'S FROM BELL ROCK BOULEVARD TO THE Y GO AHEAD.
I KNOW BRIAN, ANDY KNOWS, I DON'T EVEN HAVE TO SAY IT.
IT NEEDS TO BE DOODLE BUG AND I KNOW WE DON'T HAVE HISTORY YET, SO LET'S USE THEM BOTH UNTIL WE HAVE HISTORY, BUT IT IS CATASTROPHIC TO MEASURE FROM BELL ROCK BOULEVARD.
BRIAN, WHY ARE YOU SAYING DO DOODLE BUG OVER CHAPEL? JUST CURIOUS.
I, BECAUSE, BECAUSE WE'VE ALREADY PUT IN PLACE A MEASUREMENT POINT AT DOODLE BUG THAT'S LIKE A GREAT IDEA THEN
I WOULD'VE BEEN HAPPY WITH THAT.
CHAPEL BACKHOE BEYOND, DOESN'T MATTER.
BUT IT ACTUALLY, DOODLEBUG IS GREAT BECAUSE IT IS, WHAT IS IT? IT'S, IT'S ONE MILE DOWN COOKS HILL TO THE Y IT'S TWO MILES FROM TO THE Y AND THERE'S HALF THE LANE CAPACITY.
SO THERE'S SORT OF A, A, A KIND OF WEIRD EQUIVALENCE FACTOR THERE.
UM, BUT SERIOUSLY, LIKE IF WE'RE MEASURING WHETHER IT'S BAD FROM BELL ROCK BOULEVARD, THAT'S, THAT'S THE WRONG METRIC.
I MEAN, IT, IT TOTALLY MISSES THE IMPACT ON OUR RESIDENTS.
SO, SO, UH, I THINK COUNSELOR FOLTZ JUST SAID SOME OF WHAT I WAS GONNA SAY ANYWAY, WHICH IS WHEN WE WANT TO COMPARE CURRENT DATA TO HISTORIC DATA, WE ONLY HAVE THAT, UM, SEGMENT FROM BELL ROCK BOULEVARD TO THE Y TO COMPARE TO THE OTHER THING TOO IS THE FLIP SIDE.
WE'RE NOT DEFINITELY NOT INTENDING TO EXCLUDE RESIDENTS PERSPECTIVES AND, AND THEIR FRAME OF REFERENCE THAT THEY'RE USED TO, BUT WE ALSO WANT TO COLLECT AND BE ABLE TO RELATE TO EVERYONE, RIGHT.
THAT THAT'S WHAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT IN THE PAST.
HOWEVER, AS, UH, AS THE COUNSELOR POINTED OUT, WE HAVE AGREED TO MEASURE BOTH MOVING FORWARD.
SO YEAH, BECAUSE THE REAL IMPORTANCE FOR ME IS, YOU KNOW, THIS IS ONE OF THE VARIABLES TO LOOK AT, TO SAY, SHOULD WE SPEND MORE MONEY ON ADVERTISING? RIGHT? HOW MANY TIMES DID WE PUT PEOPLE INTO THE PAIN CAVE? RIGHT? SO, AND THAT IS ABOUT OUR RESIDENTS FIRST.
SO ANYWAYS, DON'T WANNA BEAT A DEAD HORSE.
I DON'T EITHER, BUT, BUT ONE OTHER PERSPECTIVE HERE IS, AND DON'T, DON'T
[02:55:01]
SIGNS ON I 17 ARE GONNA BE INFORMING.CAN YOU DO BOTH ON I 17 USING THAT NUMBER FOR I FOR I 17, BUT THE OTHER FROM BELL ROCK, UH, DOODLE BUGS TRAVEL? THAT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
WHAT WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO DO IN THE FUTURE.
I ENGINEER, YOU KNOW, OUR INTENT IS STILL IN THE FUTURE TO GIVE THIS INFORMATION THROUGH OUR WEBSITES AND OUR, OUR OWN INFORMATION THAT WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO INCLUDE BOTH SEGMENTS.
MY INTEREST IN THIS IS REALLY ABOUT THE IMPACT OF TOURISM ON OUR RIGHT AND FROM I 17 SURE.
BECAUSE THAT'S NOT AFFECTING OUR RESIDENTS, CORRECT.
THAT ARE PULLING OUT OF THE CHAPEL, MYSTIC HILLS, DOODLE BUG, WHOEVER PULLS OUT OF THOSE NEIGHBORHOODS.
I GOTTA SUPPORT BRIAN'S, UH, DIRECTIONS POSITION ON THIS A LITTLE BIT.
I MEAN, YES, WHEN WE, ANYTHING YOU DO WITH ROADS, YOU CAN LOOK AT IT FROM A TRAFFIC ANALYSIS AND THROUGHPUT OR YOU CAN LOOK AT IT FROM A EXPERIENCE PERSPECTIVE.
AND, AND I DO THINK THAT THERE'S MORE PROGRESS WE COULD MAKE ON ALL OF OUR WORK HERE ABOUT CHECKING IT RELATIVE TO THE RESIDENT EXPERIENCE.
UH, I HAD A SPECIFIC QUESTION ABOUT 2015 AND 10 MINUTE THRESHOLD TIMES, AND I SORT OF GET THOSE, THEY'RE, UH, CONSUMABLE HUMAN EXPERIENCE, BUT YOU KNOW, IT'S, IT'S A FACTOR OF FIVE ON 89 OR NORTH AND A FACTOR OF 1.66 ON 1 79.
SO DO YOU HAVE ANY INSIGHT AS TO HOW THOSE ARE, THE ROUTES ARE A LITTLE BIT LONGER, SO OBVIOUSLY 1 79 IS GONNA BE THE LONGEST ROUTE.
UM, THE, WHICH IS, WHICH IS WHY I NORMALIZED IT TO THE STANDARD TOP, RIGHT? YEAH.
TROUT FARM TO THE Y IS GONNA BE THE SECOND LONGEST.
AND THEN OBVIOUSLY, UM, YOU CAN SEE THERE THAT, UH, IT'S AIRPORT TWO, THE Y ON COOKS HILL IS TWO MINUTES.
IT WAS, IT WAS NOT VERY SCIENTIFIC.
IT WAS ME SITTING THERE QUICKLY WITH A DISCUSSION WITH ANDREW SAYING, WHEN DO I SEE RED WHEN I'M DRIVING ON EACH OF THOSE ROUTES? AND SO THAT'S, IT WAS JUST SOMETHING THAT I DECIDED THOSE NUMBERS CAN BE ADJUSTED OBVIOUSLY IT WAS JUST A FIRST PASS IT.
YEAH, AND THAT'D BE MY COMMENT IS THAT IT'S VERY EASY FOR US TO MOVE THIS UP AND DOWN.
IT'S MORE JUST, IF WE PUT IT HERE, WHAT DO WE START TO SEE, RIGHT? YEAH.
JUST GIVE THAT SOME MORE THOUGHT.
DON'T ASK ME WHEN I SEE, YEAH, YEAH.
DON'T ASK ME WHEN I SEE WRAPPED UP.
AND AGAIN, AND, AND I THINK THE CHALLENGE TO THAT THOUGH IS THAT IT'S INCREDIBLY SUBJECTIVE AT TIMES TOO, YOU KNOW, AND I THINK IT'S, IT'S MORE JUST SAYING, HEY, LET'S JUST DRAW A LINE FOR A BASELINE AND LET'S SEE WHAT SORT OF, LET'S SEE WHAT WE START TO GET AT.
UM, WHICH I WILL SAY ALSO THAT WE DID THIS IN THE TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN, UM, THE SAME KIND OF DATA, THE SAME THING THAT HE'S ABOUT TO SHOW YOU WE DID IN THE TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN AS WELL.
UM, AND I THINK WE USE SIMILAR INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLDS, ANDY, WE DID PREVIOUSLY.
SO EVEN LAUREN'S BACK AT THE NAPKIN, ONE OF THE REASON WHY WE DIDN'T WANT TO CHANGE IT FOR TODAY WAS THAT IT ALIGNED WITH WHAT ANDY'S TEAM HAD ALREADY DONE SEVERAL YEARS AGO.
SO, ALRIGHT, KEEP IN MIND ALL THAT'S ALREADY SIX 15.
HOW MUCH LONGER WAS YOUR PRESENTATION? HOW LONG? WE'RE GOOD? WE'RE GOOD.
SO I WILL NOT BORE YOU WITH A MASSIVE SPREADSHEET THAT I'VE BEEN WORKING ON WITH THE PUBLIC WORKS TEAM, BUT HERE IS ESSENTIALLY A SCREENSHOT JUST TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT WE'VE BEEN USING AND KIND OF HOW WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH IT.
SO YOU'VE GOT, VOLUMES ARE NEXT TWO TRAVEL TIMES, ESSENTIALLY HOW MANY CARS ARE MOVING, WHAT'S KIND OF THE TRAVEL TIMES.
AND THEN WE JUST THREW SOME CONDITIONAL FORMATTING ON TO SAY IF, AND THIS WAS THE SEGMENT THAT IT'S 32 IS THE TRIGGER.
UM, IF IT'S 32 AND ABOVE, YOU KNOW, THAT KIND OF YELLOW ORANGE THERE IS ESSENTIALLY WHEN WE'VE HIT THAT INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD FOR THAT ROUTE.
SO, UM, WE HAVE THAT FOR 2019 ALL THE WAY TO 2025 YEAR TO DATE ESSENTIALLY.
UM, AND WHAT I WILL SHOW YOU THAT'S EASIER TO DIGEST IS, YOU KNOW, OUT OF THE, YOU KNOW, SATURDAYS THAT YEAR, UM, HOW MANY OF THOSE SATURDAYS HIT THAT INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD? AND THEN WHAT PERCENT OF SATURDAYS WAS THAT IN THAT YEAR? UM, JUST TO, YOU KNOW, START TO JUST THINK THIS THROUGH TOGETHER.
UM, WHAT I WANT TO REALLY BRING YOUR ATTENTION TO IS THAT MIDDLE ONE, ROUTE B SOUTHBOUND.
UM, THERE'S REALLY NO INSTANCES.
UM, THERE'S BEEN A TWO IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS WHERE WE'VE HIT THE INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD ON THAT ROADWAY.
AND I THINK IT'S JUST AN ABSOLUTE CREDIT TO THE WORK THAT ANDY'S TEAM HAS BEEN DOING TO REALLY, YOU KNOW, CHANGE THE WAY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH UPTOWN.
I THINK WE GOT THE ROUNDABOUTS PUT IN, WE KIND OF BLOCKED OFF THE JAYWALKING THAT WAS HAPPENING THERE, AND THAT EFFECTIVELY SPED UP TRAFFIC.
UM, WHICH TO ME IS JUST IMPORTANT, RIGHT? I MEAN, WE'RE, WE'RE ACTIVELY ENGINEERING OUR DESTINATION TO ALLOW FOR THE SAME OR MORE CARS TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT REACHING AN INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD FOR OUR RESIDENTS AND OUR VISITORS.
[03:00:01]
UM, OBVIOUSLY, YOU KNOW, WE CAN SEE FOR THESE, FOR THESE OTHER SEGMENTS THAT, YOU KNOW, ARGUABLY, YOU KNOW, ON 1 79 NORTHBOUND, THAT WAS, UM, THE HIGHEST IT'S BEEN.UM, PART OF IT IS THERE'S CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS THAT ARE HAPPENING.
UM, THERE COULD BE, YEAH, THAT WAS SPECIFICALLY THE UPTOWN NORTHBOUND ROADWAY IMPROVEMENTS PROJECT.
WHEN WE ASKED DALTON, WE SAID, WHAT HAPPENED? HE SAID, OH, WE HAD MANY DAYS IN THERE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR THAT HIT THAT INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD BECAUSE OF THAT PROJECT.
WE ALSO KNOW THAT THERE COULD BE, YOU KNOW, A A, A PUBLIC SAFETY INCIDENT, A CAR ACCIDENT CAN OBVIOUSLY OCCUR THAT CAN CREATE AN, AN INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLD.
SO, UM, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, EVERY DATA SET HAS ITS OWN FLAWS, BUT I THINK IT'S JUST BEEN A SUPER HELPFUL AND KIND OF INTERESTING EXERCISE FOR US TO LOOK AT.
AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT WE, WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS THAT I NOW HAVE KIND OF A DATA SCIENCE TEAM WORKING ON THIS WITH US TO START DOING SOME REGRESSION ANALYSIS, UM, TO SAY, HEY, ARE THERE KIND OF CORRELATION THINGS HERE? UM, I HAVEN'T HAD THE TIME TO DO IT, BUT REALLY LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, ARE MORE CARS GOING THROUGH WITH LESS INSTANCES OF THRESHOLD? I HAVE TO THINK THEY DO.
I DON'T KNOW IF ANDY, YOU'VE, YOU'VE DONE THAT ANALYSIS ALREADY.
UM, WE'VE LOOKED AT THAT SOMEWHAT AND, UM, IT'S, IT'S REALLY HARD TO NAIL IT DOWN SUPER TIGHT LIKE THAT.
WHAT HAPPENS IS WHEN YOU START TO TAKE THESE THREE CORRIDORS AND MESH THEM TOGETHER, SOMETIMES ONE OVER INFLUENCES THE OTHER AND YEAH.
SO YOU KIND OF HAVE TO LOOK AT 'EM ALTOGETHER TO BE ABLE TO SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE.
UM, SO YES, I MEAN, ALTHOUGH IT'S A SUPER INSIGHTFUL DATA SET, UM, IT HAS ITS LIMITATIONS, WHICH WE JUST TALKED ABOUT.
ONE IS THAT SOMETIMES WE DON'T GET DATA FOR THAT DAY.
UM, AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, I THINK AT THE TIME THE TEAM HAS, LIKE, SOME OF IT'S GOT NAS, SOME OF IT'S GOT, I THINK, ESTIMATES THAT GET PUT IN FOR WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE BEEN.
UM, BUT I REALLY JUST WANNA ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WE'RE SEEING POSITIVE IMPACTS FROM THE COMPLETION OF SIM PROJECTS.
UM, YOU KNOW, AGAIN THAT, YOU KNOW, 89 A SOUTH DOESN'T REALLY HAVE INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLDS ANYMORE.
UM, WHAT I'M REALLY EXCITED ABOUT TOO IS THAT, YOU KNOW, OUR TEAM IS NOW WORKING WITH PUBLIC WORKS FROM THIS TOURISM LENS TO SAY, LET'S MAINTAIN THIS DATA SET ON A REGULAR BASIS.
LET'S NOT LOSE OUR ABILITY TO LOOK BACK AND UNDERSTAND, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS THAT IMPACT? BECAUSE I'LL BE HONEST, LIKE I'VE ALWAYS LOVED THE QUESTION, UM, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S THE PLAN? AND TO ME IT'S LESS ABOUT PEOPLE, IT'S ABOUT INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLDS, RIGHT? RIGHT.
I MEAN, THAT'S, THAT'S WHERE THE PINCH POINT IS.
YOU CAN, A SMARTER VISITOR IN A BETTER ENGINEER DESTINATION CREATES LESS PINCH POINTS EVEN IF YOU INCREASE THE NUMBER OF VISITORS ESSENTIALLY.
SO, UM, I'M REALLY EXCITED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FOREST ROAD EXTENSION PROJECT.
UM, I THINK THAT IS ONE THAT WE'RE DEFINITELY GONNA LOOK AT.
HOW HAS THAT CHANGED THINGS? AND THEN WITH THAT DATA SCIENCE TEAM, LOOKING AT, AGAIN, THE TOURISM'S TOURISM'S CORRELATION TO THIS, CAN WE LOOK AT, I MEAN, I HAVE OCCUPANCY AND DEMAND EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE YEAR TOO, FOR HOTELS AND FOR SHORT TERM RENTALS.
LET'S ACTUALLY LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, NUMBER OF VISITORS AS, AS A VOLUME AND HOW THAT CORRELATES TO INCONVENIENCE THRESHOLDS.
SO, UM, JUST KNOW THAT WE ARE ACTIVELY WORKING ON THAT PLAN.
UM, AND THIS IS ONE OF THE WAYS THAT WE'RE TRYING TO GET THERE.
THAT LOGO LOOKS GOOD ON THERE.
I LIKE IT COLORIZED LIKE THAT THOUGH TOO.
IT LOOKS, IT LOOKS GOOD ON THE, UH, CAMELBACK WATER BOTTLE.
CAN I JUST SAY THANK YOU? I THOUGHT THIS WAS A FABULOUS PRESENTATION.
UM, NOT ONLY WAS ALL THE INFORMATION THERE, BUT IT WAS JUST SO WELL LAID OUT TO FLOW AND BE ABLE TO MAKE CONNECTIONS.
IT'S OBVIOUS THE AMOUNT OF TIME AND EFFORT THAT THAT WENT INTO THIS, AND I JUST REALLY APPRECIATE HAVING THIS.
IF I MAY MAYOR AS WELL, I ALSO WANNA SAY I'M SEEING PROGRESS AND IT'S A BEAUTIFUL THING AND WE BROUGHT THIS IN-HOUSE BECAUSE ANDREW, WHAT YOU SAID, THAT WE PROBABLY HAVE ACCESS TO SOME THINGS THAT WE DIDN'T BEFORE.
THAT ASIDE, WE'RE EVEN SEEING SORT OF BETTER DATA THAN WE HAD BEFORE.
AND SO I DON'T WANNA DIMINISH ANY OF THAT WORK THAT YOU DID GOOD WORK.
UH, BUT I ALSO WANT, I'M GONNA CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE YOU TO BE MOVING FORWARD AND LOOKING AND GETTING TO THAT, UH, VISITOR MANAGEMENT THREE.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A RESEARCH PROJECT AND I GET IT.
IT, IT SEEMS HARD AND, AND, AND I KNOW THAT YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT IT AND TRYING TO WORK, BUT, UH, I, I SUSPECT THAT WE'RE GONNA REALLY HAVE TO REACH OUT AND START WORKING WITH THE FOREST SERVICE IN A DIFFERENT LEVEL BECAUSE SOME OF THE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE ELEMENTS ARE WHAT TRAIL TRASH, GRAFFITI REMOVAL.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO NORMALIZE THAT BY HOW HARD THEY'RE TRYING.
WE'RE ONLY GONNA KNOW THAT BY REALLY WORKING DEEPLY WITH THEM AND RED ROCK TRAIL FUND AND
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ALL THE OTHER PARTNERS IN TOWN.UH, THE NUMBER OF TRASH CANS, THE NUMBER OF BATHROOMS AT TRAIL HEADS, RIGHT? I'M JUST FOCUSING HERE ON THE TRAIL EXPERIENCE.
UM, BUT YOU KNOW, THERE'S THINGS THAT WE CAN DO TO START MEASURING AND, YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE THE SILICON VALLEY APPROACH.
YOU, YOU BUILD ONE TO THROW ONE AWAY AND YOU KEEP TRYING.
BUT YEAH, I, I, I, I GET WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT AND YOU'RE TRYING TO THINK WHAT'S THE NIRVANA, WHAT'S, WHAT'S THE RIGHT THING FOR US TO MEASURE? SURE, IT LOOKS HARD, BUT WE CAN START WITH OTHER THINGS AND JUST START TUNING IT, YOU KNOW, AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
BUT THAT'S REALLY WHY WE BROUGHT IT IN IS BECAUSE WE ARE LOOKING FOR A MORE HOLISTIC MM-HMM
VERSION OF WHAT THE RESULTS ARE ON THE COMMUNITY IMPACT.
SO, UH, ANDREW AND LAUREN, EXCELLENT.
REALLY, UH, EXCITING TO SEE THE INSIGHTS THAT GO WITH THE, THE DATA MM-HMM
UH, ONE THING I WANNA PUT ON YOUR RADAR TO THINK ABOUT ALONG WITH, UH, AMBER IS, AND, AND ACTUALLY CHAMBER AND LODGING COUNCIL IS WHEN CAN WE BE THINKING ABOUT, WE CAN BE THINKING ABOUT, BUT IS THERE GONNA BE A TIME WHEN WE COULD ACTUALLY BE PROMOTING, UH, MOTOR COACH, BUS SERVICE FROM SKY HARBOR HERE? AND, YOU KNOW, IMAGINE A CAMPAIGN OF, YOU KNOW, SEDONA FOR THE WEEKEND IN SEDONA, NO CAR, RIGHT? SAID BETTER THAN THAT, OF COURSE, RIGHT? MM-HMM
BUT YOU KNOW, WE'RE, WE'RE GETTING TO THAT POINT WHERE YOU REALLY CAN HAVE, RIGHT NOW, IT WOULD, IT WOULD BE A WEEKEND, RIGHT? BECAUSE THE SHUTTLE CONNECT IS STILL LIMITED TO SOME EXTENT, RIGHT? UM, BUT THAT'S ANOTHER MEANS TO LOWER THE, THE, THE PAIN AND SUFFERING INDEX POTENTIALLY FOR OUR COMMUNITY, RIGHT? LIKE, GET MORE PEOPLE IN HERE THAT DON'T HAVE TO GET IN A CAR LIKE THAT, THAT'S A WIN-WIN.
UM, SO THAT'S A COMPLEX SOLUTION AND I'M CERTAINLY NOT SUGGESTING THAT THE CITY SHOULD GO BUY MOTOR COACH BUS NOT EVEN REMOTELY.
SO DO NOT QUOTE ME ANYBODY ON THAT.
WHO WOULD DO THAT? BUT GET A THIRD PARTY INVOLVED, RIGHT? AND WHAT ROLE WILL THE CHAMBER AND ITS MEMBERS, ALONG WITH THE LODGING COUNCIL, YOU KNOW, AND THEIR MEMBERS, WHAT, WHAT INTEREST WOULD THEY HAVE IN BEING ABLE TO PROMOTE SOMETHING LIKE A CAR FREE VACATION TO SEDONA? SO OVERALL, AGAIN, GREAT WORK, LOVE WHAT YOU GUYS ARE DOING.
UM, I THINK WITH THE, UM, IN, WHAT'D YOU CALL IT? INCONVENIENCE.
THAT'S MY WAY OF SAYING PAIN CAVE.
SO YEAH, PAIN CAVE'S A LOT FEWER SYLLABLES,
SO, UM, YOU KNOW, TO ME, PAIN CAVE AND HOW MUCH WE SPEND ON ADVERTISING AND THE RESULTS WE GET, LIKE THAT'S ONE OF THE CLOSEST CORRELATIONS WE HAVE THAT WOULD GIVE ME COMFORT IN BEING ABLE TO, TO, TO VOTE IN THE FUTURE TO SAY, YEAH, YOU KNOW WHAT, LET'S GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP THE SPEND ON, UH, THE MARKETING AND THE FACT THAT THE, UH, ROAS FROM A CITY TAX BASIS IS THREE PLUS, AND THAT'S BEFORE ADDING IN WHAT WE'LL LEARN ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTION FROM STR FROM THESE CAMPAIGNS REALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE CAMPAIGNS ARE PAYING FOR THEMSELVES.
AND THAT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT'S SIGNIFICANT.
AND SO, AGAIN, AS LONG AS WE'RE NOT CREATING PAIN FOR THE RESIDENTS, THEN YOU KNOW, WE SHOULD HAVE SOME COMFORT IN CONTINUING TO, TO GROW AND SUPPORT, UH, THE EXPENDITURE.
UH, I'VE SAID IT BEFORE, I'LL SAY IT AGAIN.
JUST DID, DID A LOT MORE DATA THAN WHAT I NEEDED.
THESE GUYS NEEDED IT
HOLLY, DID YOU WANNA SAY ANYTHING IN CLOSING? YEAH, THANK YOU.
YOU'RE STILL IN THE HONEYMOON PERIOD, GUYS.
YOU CAN'T IMAGINE HOW MEANINGFUL THAT IS.
ON THAT NOTE, DEREK, DID YOU WANT TO FINISH UP? NO.